The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
The dependence of the energy losses or the stopping power for the energies and the related penetrating factor are arrive by using a theoretical approximation models. in this work we reach a compatible agreement between our results and the corresponding experimental results.
This study examines the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and motivation for sports achievement among youth badminton players. The research aims to identify how personality traits influence athletes’ drive for success and tendency to avoid failure, ultimately shaping their competitive performance. The hypothesis envisioned using a descriptive-correlational design to collect data from 51 players based on the use of validated psychological scales such as Big Five Personality Traits Scale and Sports Achievement Motivation Scale. Personality traits were assessed on their effect on achievement motivation using statistical analyses such as Pearson correlation, multiple regression. The relation between extraversion, openness,
... Show MoreIn this thesis, we introduced the simply* compact spaces which are defined over simply* open set, and study relation between the simply* separation axioms and the compactness were studied and study a new types of functions known as αS^(M* )- irresolte , αS^(M* )- continuous and R S^(M* )- continuous, which are defined between two topological spaces. On the other hand we use the class of soft simply open set to define a new types of separation axioms in soft topological spaces and we introduce the concept of soft simply compactness and study it. We explain and discuss some new concepts in soft topological spaces such as soft simply separated, soft simply disjoint, soft simply division, soft simply limit point and we define soft simply c
... Show MoreIn this work, a Photonic Crystal Fiber (PCF) sensor based on the Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) technology was proposed. A thin layer of gold (Au) was deposited on a D-shaped Photonic Crystal Fiber (PCF), which was coated with plasmonic chemically stable gold material with a thickness of 40nm. The performance parameters like sensitivity including wavelength sensitivity and amplitude sensitivity and resolution were evaluated by simulation using COMSOL software. The proposed sensor was created by using the finite element approach, it is numerically examined. The results show that the surface of D-shaped Photonic Crystal Fiber coated with Au behaves as a sensor to detect the refractive index (IR) of toxic metal ions. The impacts of the str
... Show MoreIntroduction: Although soap industry is known from hundreds of years, the development accompanied with this industry was little. The development implied the mechanical equipment and the additive materials necessary to produce soap with the best specifications of shape, physical and chemical properties. Objectives: This research studies the use of vacuum reactive distillation VRD technique for soap production. Methods: Olein and Palmitin in the ratio of 3 to 1 were mixed in a flask with NaOH solution in stoichiometric amount under different vacuum pressures from -0.35 to -0.5 bar. Total conversion was reached by using the VRD technique. The soap produced by the VRD method was compared with soap prepared by the reaction - only method which
... Show MoreIn this study, different methods were used for estimating location parameter and scale parameter for extreme value distribution, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) , method of moment estimation (ME),and approximation estimators based on percentiles which is called white method in estimation, as the extreme value distribution is one of exponential distributions. Least squares estimation (OLS) was used, weighted least squares estimation (WLS), ridge regression estimation (Rig), and adjusted ridge regression estimation (ARig) were used. Two parameters for expected value to the percentile as estimation for distribution f
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Sotileza , localismo santandrino de sutileza , es la parte más fina del aparejo de pescar donde va el anzuelo. Es la obra maestro de José María de Pereda.Su ambiente , el Santander viejo, anterior al año 50,evocado emocionadamente - emociόn romántica contenida en los trazos sobrios y firmes de un naturalism psicolόgico y paisajista,el Santander que el autor confiesa poseer en el fondo de su corazόn,«y tenerlo esculpido en la memoria de tal suerte que ,a ojos cerrados,me atrevería a trazarle con todo su perímetro y sus calles, y el color de sus piedras, y el número, y los nombres, y hasta las caras de sus habitantes».Dentro de la grandeza primaria de las criaturas de Pere
... Show MoreThis paper is concerned with introducing and studying the first new approximation operators using mixed degree system and second new approximation operators using mixed degree system which are the core concept in this paper. In addition, the approximations of graphs using the operators first lower and first upper are accurate then the approximations obtained by using the operators second lower and second upper sincefirst accuracy less then second accuracy. For this reason, we study in detail the properties of second lower and second upper in this paper. Furthermore, we summarize the results for the properties of approximation operators second lower and second upper when the graph G is arbitrary, serial 1, serial 2, reflexive, symmetric, tra
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