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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Intensity and aggregation of Tanqua Anomala (LINSTOW, 1904) in the dice snake from central Iraq
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Requirements of stress tests model and the possibility to apply in Iraqi banks exploratory study of the views of a sample of staff in the central Bank of Iraq .
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Abstract

This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools  in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability  in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .

To achieving the reseach obje

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Environmental Earth Sciences
The geological situation in Abu-Jir Faults Zone, western Iraq: evidence from the radioactivity in Hit–Haditha area
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Relationship between accounting Conservatism, Persistence and volatility of earnings of companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The study aimed to show the concept and importance of accounting Conservatism, Persistence and volatility of earnings of companies listed in the Iraqi market for securities have been selected 35 companies for the period between 2013 to 2107 used the scale of book value to market value to measure the Conservatism while the current profit regression model was used to measure future profits Eviews 9 was used for the purpose of testing the two hypotheses. The results of the study found that there is a statistically significant relationship between accounting Conservatism and Persistence of earnings. The relationship is inverse with no statistically significant relationship between Conservatism and earnings volatility.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 29 2024
Journal Name
Banks And Bank Systems
Fiscal and real repercussions of the Central Bank of Iraq’s real estate initiatives by using Multiple Correspondence Analysis
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The importance of the study stems from the fact that Iraq’s economy is facing a housing crisis, especially in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, great demographic pressure due to pronounced population growth over the past two decades. The Central Bank of Iraq undertakes several initiatives represented in granting real estate loans, mainly through the Real Estate Bank at very low interest, and in the last two years, the interest has become zero. The purpose of the study is to analyze the fiscal implications of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiatives, as well as its real impact on the spatial dimension of the Iraqi governorates through new housing in those governorates. Using data mainly from the Central Bank of Iraq’s bulleti

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimating Stock Returns Using Rough Set Theory: An Exploratory study With An Evidence From Iraq Stock Exchange
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‎ This research aims to estimate stock returns, according to the ‎Rough Set Theory ‎approach, ‎test ‎its effectiveness and accuracy in predicting stock returns and their potential in the ‎field of ‎financial ‎markets, and rationalize investor decisions. The research sample is totaling (10) ‎companies traded at Iraq Stock Exchange. The results showed a remarkable ‎ ‎Rough Set Theory application in data reduction, contributing to the rationalization of ‎investment ‎decisions. The most prominent conclusions are the capability of rough set theory ‎in ‎dealing with financial data and applying it for forecasting stock ‎returns.‎The ‎research provides those interested in investing stocks in financial

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Professional Business Review
A Comparative Study to Reveal Earnings Management in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Tunisia and Iraq
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Purpose: The purpose of the study is to compare and evaluate Earnings Management in Tunisia and Iraq.   Theoretical framework: Earnings Management is an important topic that has been studied by a significant number of researchers, as well as those who are interested in the accounting profession. Earnings Management has gotten a lot of attention from academics, professionals, and other interested parties in recent years (e.g. Kliestik et al., 2020; Rahman et al., 2021; Gamra &Ellouze, 2021)   Design/methodology/approach: The sample includes ten banks listed on the Bourse of Tunisia and Iraq Stock Exchanges for the year 2017. We have used a model of Kothari et al., (2005) as a tool to measure Earnings Management in both mark

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling The Power Grid Network Of Iraq
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Recently, the theory of Complex Networks gives a modern insight into a variety of applications in our life. Complex Networks are used to form complex phenomena into graph-based models that include nodes and edges connecting them. This representation can be analyzed by using network metrics such as node degree, clustering coefficient, path length, closeness, betweenness, density, and diameter, to mention a few. The topology of the complex interconnections of power grids is considered one of the challenges that can be faced in terms of understanding and analyzing them. Therefore, some countries use Complex Networks concepts to model their power grid networks. In this work, the Iraqi Power Grid network (IPG) has been modeled, visua

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Acta Facultatis Medicae Naissensis
The Factors Influencing the Risk of Perforation in Patients with Peptic Ulcers: A Cross-Sectional Study from Central Iraq
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Abstract<p>The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors that influence the perforation, regardless of the presence of H. pylori infection, in a sample of Iraqi patients with peptic ulcers, admitted to Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A total of 90 patients who had perforated peptic ulcer participated in this study. The diagnosis was based on history, clinical examination, laboratory and radiological investigations and was confirmed intraoperatively. A number of probable risk factors for perforation were investigated. Eighty participants were males and 10 were females (male to female ratio 8:1). About 42.2% of patients were in their fifth decade of life. Forty-nine (54.4%) patients were asymptomatic be</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study for evidence of bacteria contamination in the southern part of the Diyala River / Iraq
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Were studied some bacteria evidence of pollution as well as the total number of live bacteria in the waters of the Diyala river and selected five stations within the 17 km final Diyala River before its mouth in the Tigris River was the first before the new bridge of the Diyala River about 4 km and the second after the mouth of the water purification plant Rustumiya suit inverselywith temperatures

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