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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Acta Facultatis Medicae Naissensis
The Factors Influencing the Risk of Perforation in Patients with Peptic Ulcers: A Cross-Sectional Study from Central Iraq
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Abstract<p>The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors that influence the perforation, regardless of the presence of H. pylori infection, in a sample of Iraqi patients with peptic ulcers, admitted to Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A total of 90 patients who had perforated peptic ulcer participated in this study. The diagnosis was based on history, clinical examination, laboratory and radiological investigations and was confirmed intraoperatively. A number of probable risk factors for perforation were investigated. Eighty participants were males and 10 were females (male to female ratio 8:1). About 42.2% of patients were in their fifth decade of life. Forty-nine (54.4%) patients were asymptomatic be</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study for evidence of bacteria contamination in the southern part of the Diyala River / Iraq
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Were studied some bacteria evidence of pollution as well as the total number of live bacteria in the waters of the Diyala river and selected five stations within the 17 km final Diyala River before its mouth in the Tigris River was the first before the new bridge of the Diyala River about 4 km and the second after the mouth of the water purification plant Rustumiya suit inverselywith temperatures

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 1010
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Mineralogy and Palyonlogy of the Mesopotamian plain sediments, Central Iraq
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Publication Date
Fri Jul 05 2013
Journal Name
Hemoglobin
The Spectrum of β-Thalassemia Mutations in Baghdad, Central Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 09 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of the Ecosystem Services of the Central Marsh in Southern Iraq
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Ecosystems provide humans with services that include benefits from food, fresh water, climate regulation, and socio-economic assets. The Mesopotamian marshlands are among the largest wetlands in the Middle East and they provide various benefits. However, ecosystem services of the Marshlands are consistently undervalued in national economic analysis and decision making. This study focusses on the Central Marshes, the first National Park in Iraq, and is the first attempt at valuing a series of ecosystem services from a valuable natural ecosystem in Iraq. We adopted the Toolkit for Ecosystem Services Site-Based Assessment (TESSA) for the determination of biophysical and economic values of services at the site level. Data on key ecosystem se

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Administrative And Economic Sciences
The impact of Outward bank transfers on exchange rates in Iraq
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The depreciation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, reaching low levels and causing disruptions in the local markets, has had detrimental effects on individuals and companies, particularly those with limited income and the poor. The local currency approached around 1600 dinars per dollar, after the official exchange rate had stabilized at around 1450 dinars per US dollar. This depreciation in the value of the Iraqi dinar can be attributed to financial speculation among currency traders, which directly affected exchange rates and illicit dollar smuggling operations. Bank transfers are also important alongside financial transactions, especially in light of current economic developments in the 21st century. To prevent currency s

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Impact Cloud Computing On The Development of Accounting Education: Evidence From Sultanate of Oman
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Cloud computing is the new technological trend for future generations. It represents a new way to use IT resources more efficiently. Cloud computing is one of the most technological models for developing and exploiting infrastructure resources in the world. Under the cloud, the user no longer needs to look for major financing to purchase infrastructure equipment as companies, especially small and medium-sized ones, can get the equipment as a service, rather than buying it as a product. The idea of ​​cloud computing dates back to the sixties of the last century, but this idea did not come into actual application until the beginning of the third millennium, at the hands of technology companies such as Apple, Hp, IBM, which had

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Study to Investigate the Effect of Polyacrylamide Gel to Reduce the Lost Circulation
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One of the challenging issues encountered during drilling operations is the lost circulation. Numerous issues might arise because of losses, such as wasting of time and higher drilling cost. Several types of lost circulation materials have been developed and are being used to limit mud losses and avoid associated issues. Each solution has benefits and drawbacks.

In this study, a core flooding test was performed to study the effectiveness of polyacrylamide (PAM) granular gel on the reduction of the circulation lost. One common type of fracture characteristic is fractures with tips, commonly known as partially open fracture (POF). However, PAM gel therapy in POFs received little attention in prior research. Models of partly open fra

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of the risks of foreign currency positions in the audit procedures : Applied research
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The research aims to know the extent of the impact of the risks of foreign exchange centers represented in the risks of commitment, exchange rate changes and liquidity risks in audit procedures, and accordingly the research will provide an applied framework of knowledge that shows the relationship between the variables addressed, and the importance of the research lies in the light of its presentation of intellectual, cognitive and applied contributions On the risks of foreign exchange centers and audit procedures, the research community is represented in the banking sector. The sample included nine private commercial banks listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The research relied on a time series consisting of four years that extended fro

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Design of New Hybrid Neural Structure for Modeling and Controlling Nonlinear Systems
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This paper proposes a new structure of the hybrid neural controller based on the identification model for nonlinear systems. The goal of this work is to employ the structure of the Modified Elman Neural Network (MENN) model into the NARMA-L2 structure instead of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model in order to construct a new hybrid neural structure that can be used as an identifier model and a nonlinear controller for the SISO linear or nonlinear systems. Weight parameters of the hybrid neural structure with its serial-parallel configuration are adapted by using the Back propagation learning algorithm. The ability of the proposed hybrid neural structure for nonlinear system has achieved a fast learning with minimum number

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