The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion
... Show MorePotential data interpretation is significant for subsurface structure characterization. The current study is an attempt to explore the magnetic low lying between Najaf and Diwaniyah Cities, In central Iraq. It aims to understand the subsurface structures that may result from this anomaly and submit a better subsurface structural image of the region. The study area is situated in the transition zone, known as the Abu Jir Fault Zone. This tectonic boundary is an inherited basement weak zone extending towards the NW-SE direction. Gravity and magnetic data processing and enhancement techniques; Total Horizontal Gradient, Tilt Angle, Fast Sigmoid Edge Detection, Improved Logistic, and Theta Map filters highlight source boundaries and the
... Show MoreBackground: Medical students often face substantial psychological stress, which can increase the risk of substance use, professional detriment, and insufficient patient care. However, substance use in medical students remains understudied in Iraq. This study highlights the prevalence, patterns, risk factors, and negative effects of substance use among medical students at the University of Baghdad. A cross-sectional study involving 414 medical students at the University of Baghdad was conducted. The questionnaire included sociodemographic variables and the Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test to screen for psychoactive substance use. The lifetime prevalence of substance use was 38.9%. Among substance users, 42.8
... Show MoreExperimental tests were carried to control lost circulation in the Khabaz oil field using different types of LCMs including Nano-materials. A closed-loop circulation system was built to simulate the process of lost circulation into formations. Two dolomite plugs were used from different depths of the formation of Azkand in Khabaz oil field. The experimentations were carried out to study the effect of different types of LCMs, cross-linked copolymer (FLOSORB CE 300 S), SiO2 NP, and Fe2O3 NP, on mud volume losses as a function of time.
The rheological measurements of the nanoparticles-reference mud system showed that both of the SiO2 NP and Fe2O3 NP w
... Show MoreThe rapid developmemt of information technology and its use in all fields has a bositive influence on all fields , and financial markets have a share of this development through the use of an electronic trading system to settle transactions and enhance transparency and disclosure in all activities of these markets and stimulate their performance .
It is worth nothing that these revolutions remove the necessity for nonstop connection with persons through the internet or phone networks , novel knowledge decreases the charges of structure original transaction system and reducing the fences of new participants entry .
The development in transportations expertise allows for quicker or
... Show MoreThis study assesses the short-term and long-term interactions between firm performance, financial education and political instability in the case of Malaysia Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The simultaneous insertion of financial education and political instability within the study is done intentionally to inspect the effect of these two elements in one equation for the Malaysian economy. Using the bound testing methodology for cointegration and error correction models, advanced within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we examine whether a long-run equilibrium connection survives between firm performance and the above mentioned independent variables. Using this method, we uncover evidence of a positive long-term link b
... Show MoreThis study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre
Due to the great losses caused by weeds to the crop, it is necessary to continue testing new herbicides that may be more efficient than the herbicides used that can reduce competition between weeds and crops, Therefore, a field experiment was carried out in the experimental field of the Department of Field Crops, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad (Al-Jadriya) during the winter season of 2021-22 in order to evaluate the efficiency of the herbicide H-199 and compare it with some herbicides used in controlling companion weed to three cultivars of wheat and its effect in the yield and its components. The experiment was applied according to the randomized complete block design with split-plot arrangement
... Show MoreTwenty-two of the Starling Sturnus vulgaris Linnaeus, 1758 were collected in Baghdad city during the period from January to September, 2014, and examined for endoparasites. Ten (45.45%) were found infected with either the cestode Passerilepis crenata (Goeze, 1782) (31.81%) or the nematode Dispharynx nasuta (Rudolphi, 1819) (13.63 %). Morphometric and meristic features for these worms were expressed. D. nasuta is recorded here for the first time from S. vulgaris for Iraq.