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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimation of Radiation Dose from Most Common Pediatrics Radiographic Examinations within Main Central Hospitals in Najaf City, Iraq
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In this study the Entrance Surface Dose (ESD) received by pediatrics patients undergoing chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examinations was estimated. The study was conducted in two hospitals in Najaf city where three radiographic systems were considered. The study participants were classified into four age groups 0-1 ,  1-5 ,  5-10  and  10-15  years. Calculations were performed using exposure factors, kVp, mAs and focal-skin distance, together with patient data age. The ESD was calculated for the involved patients who underwent an Antero-posterior (AP) chest, abdomen and skull X-ray examination. The resulted data were analyzed and compared with international dose references. For all studied radiographic examinations and all X-ray mac

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EXTENSION ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE UNDER QUALITY STANDARDS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORKING STAFF IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND VEGETABLES FARMERS OF CENTRAL GOVERNORATES IN IRAQ
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This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
MODELING DEATH RATE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN IRAQ
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Structural Interpretation of Najaf Basin Using the Magnetic and Gravity Data, Central Iraq
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Potential data interpretation is significant for subsurface structure characterization. The current study is an attempt to explore the magnetic low lying between Najaf and Diwaniyah Cities, In central Iraq. It aims to understand the subsurface structures that may result from this anomaly and submit a better subsurface structural image of the region. The study area is situated in the transition zone, known as the Abu Jir Fault Zone. This tectonic boundary is an inherited basement weak zone extending towards the NW-SE direction. Gravity and magnetic data processing and enhancement techniques; Total Horizontal Gradient, Tilt Angle, Fast Sigmoid Edge Detection, Improved Logistic, and Theta Map filters highlight source boundaries and the

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 23 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effect of Nano Materials on Lost Circulation Control of Azkand Formation in Khabaz Oil Field
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Experimental tests were carried to control lost circulation in the Khabaz oil field using different types of LCMs including Nano-materials. A closed-loop circulation system was built to simulate the process of lost circulation into formations. Two dolomite plugs were used from different depths of the formation of Azkand in Khabaz oil field. The experimentations were carried out to study the effect of different types of LCMs, cross-linked copolymer (FLOSORB CE 300 S), SiO2 NP, and Fe2O3 NP, on mud volume losses as a function of time.

The rheological measurements of the nanoparticles-reference mud system showed that both of the SiO2 NP and Fe2O3 NP w

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EVALUATION OF ELECTRONIC TRADING AND CENTRAL DEPOSITERY IN THE IRAQ STOCK EXCHANGE FOR THE PERIOS (2008- 2018): EVALUATION OF ELECTRONIC TRADING AND CENTRAL DEPOSITERY IN THE IRAQ STOCK EXCHANGE FOR THE PERIOS (2008- 2018)
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The rapid developmemt of information technology and its use in all fields has a bositive influence on all fields , and financial markets have a share of this development through the use of an electronic trading system to settle transactions and enhance transparency and disclosure in all activities of these markets and stimulate their performance .

It is worth nothing that these revolutions remove the necessity for nonstop connection with persons through the internet or phone networks , novel knowledge decreases the charges of structure original transaction system and reducing the fences of new participants entry .

The development in transportations expertise allows for quicker or

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 02 2026
Journal Name
Psychiatry International
Patterns of Substance Use in Medical Students: Evidence from an Iraqi Academic Setting
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Background: Medical students often face substantial psychological stress, which can increase the risk of substance use, professional detriment, and insufficient patient care. However, substance use in medical students remains understudied in Iraq. This study highlights the prevalence, patterns, risk factors, and negative effects of substance use among medical students at the University of Baghdad. A cross-sectional study involving 414 medical students at the University of Baghdad was conducted. The questionnaire included sociodemographic variables and the Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test to screen for psychoactive substance use. The lifetime prevalence of substance use was 38.9%. Among substance users, 42.8

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 07 2026
Journal Name
Twms Journal Of Applied And Engineering Mathematics
THE QUANTILE GARCH-DISTRIBUTED LAG (QGDL) FRAMEWORK: A UNIFIED MODEL FOR HIGH-VOLATILITY TIME SERIES
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TWMS Journal of Applied and Engineering Mathematics | Volume: 16 Issue: 9

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Innovation, Creativity And Change
Financial education, political instability and firm performance: Evidence from Malaysian SMEs
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This study assesses the short-term and long-term interactions between firm performance, financial education and political instability in the case of Malaysia Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs). The simultaneous insertion of financial education and political instability within the study is done intentionally to inspect the effect of these two elements in one equation for the Malaysian economy. Using the bound testing methodology for cointegration and error correction models, advanced within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we examine whether a long-run equilibrium connection survives between firm performance and the above mentioned independent variables. Using this method, we uncover evidence of a positive long-term link b

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 03 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the currency sale window in the stability of the dinar exchange rate and its reflection on inflation
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The: currency Auction is one of the monetary policy tools created after 2003, in order to keep pace with the changes that the monetary and financial policies will witness from financial openness and expectations of high levels of liquidity after international economic restrictions. It is necessary to re-evaluate the work of the currency Auction from time to time and observation its efficiency in adjustment the exchange rate And its reflection on the general level of prices as one of the objectives of its inception, and during the analytical aspect, it was confirmed that the currency Auction for selling the currency had a major role in adjustment the exchange rate and controlling inflation levels, due to the market’s dependence

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