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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Cuadernos De Economía
The Role of Carbon Pricing Mechanisms and Renewable Energy Technologies in Reducing Carbon Emissions: Evidence from the International Economy
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Abstract: The international community now places significant emphasis on achieving zero carbon emissions, requiring both new researchers and experienced policymakers to prioritise this goal. This article examines the effects of carbon taxes, carbon cap and trade, renewable energy (RE) production and consumption, and economic growth (EG) on carbon emission reduction in the United States, Japan, Canada, and Australia. The study collected secondary data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) secondary source spanning the years 1991 to 2022. The study examines the relationship between variables using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach. The findings indicate that carbon taxes, carbon cap and tr

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Measurement of Users Satisfaction from the Automatic Retrieval Service of the Dissertation in the Central Library of the University of Baghdad: Measurement of Users Satisfaction from the Automatic Retrieval Service of the Dissertation in the Central Library of the University of Baghdad
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Abstract
This study aims to evaluated the user satisfaction of retrieval services
concerning to universities thesis and dissertations in university dissertation
unit of Baghdad Library for achieving the following objectives:
1- Evaluating the performance of this unit (thesis unit of Baghdad University
Library) regarding to users opinion.
2- Recognizing the reasons in this unit behind the case of non satisfaction of
its users and trying to find the suitable solutions.
To achieve those two objectives, the questionnaire tool was performed
and determined the user's satisfaction level by using a sample survey. 1118
graduated students were subjected to this experiment. The following main
results were appeared:<

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 08 2012
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Chemical and physical control processes on the development of caves in the Injana Formation, Central Iraq
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of the risks of foreign currency positions on the continuity of the economic unit : Applied research
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The research aims to know the extent of the impact of the risks of foreign exchange centers represented in commitment risks, liquidity risks, and exchange rate risks on the continuity of the economic unit. The research in the light of its presentation of the intellectual, cognitive and applied contributions about the risks of foreign currency centers and the continuity of the economic unit, and represented the research community in the banking sector, and the sample included nine private commercial banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, and they relied on the research on a time series consisting of four years that extended from one year 2017 to 2020. The research problem was the impact of the risks associated with foreign currency cent

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Positive School Psychology
Designing A Quality Costing System In Commercial Banks (Applied Research In The Investment Bank Of Iraq)
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 31 2014
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Petroleum system modeling and risk assessments of Ad’daimah oil field: a case study from Mesan Governorate, south Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2016
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The link of destination Using the evidence Analytical Fundamental Study
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This paper seeks to study the link between the fundamentalist evidence based on the observance of governance and interests and the ranks of the three legitimate purposes (necessary, need and detailed). The researcher followed the descriptive-analytical approach. The study reached important results, including that the measurement relates to the three ranks, but predominantly attached to measure the meaning of the need and the need, and the measurement of the semi-formal and semi-predominance improvement. Reclamation is considered by the majority of scholars to be authentic if it is related to the necessity and the need, and that it is not acceptable to improve only by a witness who recommends it. The excuses relate to Hajji and Tahini, no

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Public Bank Debt and Foreign reserve constraint in Iraq for the Period (2017-2004)
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Abstract

Public debt has posed a major challenge to both developing and developed countries, which has focused attention on the optimal limits (threshold of debt) and its determinants.

The study examines the effect of the Public bank debt on the foreign reserves and the work of the foreign reserve as a limitation on the process of bank debt (part of the internal debt) for the period (2017-2004), in addition to finding the type and nature of the relationship between them according to the hypotheses of the study, Public bank debt and foreign reserves.

The study was based on data from the Iraqi banking sector, which showed that Iraq has a foreign reserve in line with internat

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the forensic accounting philosophy in the transparency and quality of financial statements: : An applied study on a sample of workers at the Trade bank of Iraq and the Gulf Commercial Bank in Babylon
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This research aims to identify the role that forensic accounting plays on the transparency and quality of the financial statements in trade bank of Iraq and the Gulf Commercial Bank in Babylon. This research came to address the problem that most financial institutions suffer from, which is represented by the lack of transparency and the quality of the financial statements issued in a manner. Annual also the manipulation and fraud in the financial data, which causes a big gap between that institutions and organizational stakeholders. According to the implementation of the research hypothesis and the objectives of the research, a questionnaire was prepared consisting of three axes, the first axis dealing with the demographic distri

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Proceedings Of The 5th International Conference On Information Systems Security And Privacy
Identification and Extraction of Digital Forensic Evidence from Multimedia Data Sources using Multi-algorithmic Fusion
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