The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
The research aims at showing the effectiveness of the existing deposit facilities in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010/2017. The problem of research indicates that the Iraqi banking system enjoys high liquidity levels exceeding the standard rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq amounting to 30% For an appropriate level of liquidity remains a major challenge to the management of the bank because it is a trade-off between profitability and liquidity, and also indicates the existence of funds disabled and not available for credit and investment opportunities, and based on the research hypothesis:
The existence of a significant effect of the deposit facilities existing in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking
... Show MoreThe deliberation and exchanged of power is a matter of political importance For the Iraqi political system after 2003, The deliberation of power and its democratic transition and electoral integrity Is a good indicator of political stability and progress In the Iraqi parliamentary political system , The transfer of authority in terms of adopting the deliberative approach represents a structural and institutional dimension of the political process , it led the power to become Authority of the Foundation Exercised in accordance with the Constitution and the law not real power , And lead to the recognition of the existence of an official parliamentary opposition and its right to take political power later through the ballot box Makes the pr
... Show MoreThis research deals with the role of quantitative (indirect) tools of monetary policy that used by the Central Bank of Iraq in order to control and manage the size of the money supply that intermediate goal through which monetary policy is able to achieve its final goals, foremost among which is to reduce inflation and raise the value of the local currency in front of foreign currency rates. The research is based on a major hypothesis stating that quantitative tools have a direct and strong influence on the money supply, especially under the circumstances of the shift towards a market economy. There has been a branching relationship with this statistically significant relationship between the money supply and the quantitative tools used
... Show MoreThe main topic of this study is central around the independence of Jordanian central bank and the extent of the effectiveness at the bank in leading the monetary policy without interferences or pressures from side of the government. the degree of independence of Jordanian central bank was based on the following based hypothesis following ,there is relationship between the independence of the central bank and the legislative and economical indices. the most important recommendations are degree of independence of the Jordan central bank 43.5% is a good one, but it possible to reach a higher degree than this one by to making some modification on the Jordanian central bank law and by the central bank should be more rigid
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to develop a method for applying financial derivatives in the local environment to reduce the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to enhance quality of accounting profits through Financial reporting to local units In accordance with international financial reporting standards, To accomplish this objective was selected a sample of Iraqi units exposed to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency rates, As the research found:
- many companies and banks in the local environment a lot of losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
- that financial derivatives in the Iraqi environment represent
This study focuses on how tax administrations in Iraq use Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to monitor tax evasion for individuals and companies to achieve Tax Compliance (TC). AI was measured through four dimensions: Advanced Data Analytics Techniques (ADAT), Explainable AI (EAI), Machine learning (ML), and Robotic Process Automation (RPA). At the same time, TC was measured through registration, accounting, and tax payment stages. We relied on the questionnaire form to measure the variables. A sample of employees in the General Tax Authority in Iraq was selected, and a questionnaire was distributed to 132 people. The results indicated that the dimensions of AI affect achieving TC at all stages. This study provides evidence of using A
... Show MoreSpecialized banks provide their banking activities to their customers at interest rates that are determined according to the approved bank policy, which is almost similar to most or most banks. To satisfy the financial desires of customers and at the same time it is a source of the bank's profits, However, these banks have been introduced to new services that they provide with the funds of the Central Bank initiative launched at the beginning of (2016) to address the economic stagnation that befell the country due to the (financial security) crisis that the country faced in 2014. To put forward initiatives amounting to nearly (15) trillion dinars, which were put forward through private commercial and Islamic banks and specialized
... Show MoreTHE ROLE OF ELECTRONIC-PAYMENT SERVICE PROVIDERS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-BANKING IN IRAQ - AN APPLIED RESEARCH IN CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ
The Mauddud Formation was one of the important and widespread Lower Cretaceous period formations in Iraq. It has been studied in three wells (EB. 55, EB. 58, and EB. 59) within the East Baghdad Oil Field, Baghdad, central Iraq. 280 thin sections were studied by microscope to determine fauna, the formation composed of limestone and dolomitized limestone in some parts which tends to be marl in some parts, forty species and genus of benthic foraminifera have been identified beside algae and other fossils, three biozones have been identified in the range which is: Orbitolina qatarica range zone (Late Albian), Orbitolina sefini range zone (Late Albian – Early Cenomanian) and Orbitolina concava range zone (Early Cenomanian), The age of
... Show MoreIslamic banks are distinguished by providing banking activities that are unique in providing them from the rest of the other types of banks, and these activities are a group of banking services provided by the bank to its customers, whether these banking activities are tangible or intangible. At the same time, it is a source of bank profits, as Islamic banks impose a percentage of Islamic Murabaha on those banking activities , However, these banks have developed new services that they provide with the funds of the Central Bank initiative launched at the beginning of (2016) due to the economic conditions that befell the country due to the (financial security) crisis that the country faced in 2014. To put forward initiatives, and a
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