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Hybrid Modeling of Currency Circulation Volatility: Evidence from the Central Bank of Iraq
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The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 09 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The financial aid of the Central Bank of Iraq to the government and its reflection on indicators of banking stability/ Applied Research
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The research aims to define the images of financial aid that it provides within their tasks (central banks to governments) and how it can affect the indicators of banking stability, as well as monitoring the levels of banking stability in the Iraqi economy through the indicators used by the Central Bank of Iraq, and the importance of research in banking stability lies in Iraq, because any decrease in the movement of the aggregate banking stability index will reflect negatively on the financial sector in Iraq. Therefore, the Central Bank sought to provide financial aid to the government through a group of components, some of which are represented by initiatives that contribute to revitalizing the national economy and the other hel

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 05 2021
Journal Name
Kuwait Journal Of Science
Evaluation of the Injana claystone from Central Iraq for the brick industry
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This study aims to suggest an alternative to the use of quality agricultural soil in the brick industry (Iraq). The Late Miocene claystone bed in the Injana Formation in central Iraq was targeted through the study of 18 exposed sections that were sampled by using the trench sampling method. The claystones are characterized by quartz (36.4%) followed by calcite (32.8%), quartz (36.4%) feldspar (2.6%), gypsum (1.3%) and dolomite (0.7%), kaolinite (10.5%), illite (7.7%), chlorite (6.7%), palygorskite (6.0%) and montmorillonite (0.7%). New thermal mineral phases were formed at 950°C, including diopside (62.9%), quartz (18.4%), wollastonite (8.28%), akermanite (7.6%), Anorthite (6.25%), Nosean (4.9%), gehlenite (3.75%) and Lazurite (3.1

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Biostratigraphy of Shiranish Formation from Selected Wells, Central of Iraq
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The Quantitative high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal analysis of the subsurface section in three selected wells in the Ajeel Oil Field (Aj-8, Aj-12, and Aj-15) in Tikrit Governorate, Central Iraq has revealed that Shiranish Formation deposited in Late Campanian- Latest Maastrichtian age. This formation consists mainly of marly and marly limestone yielding diverse planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and calcareous benthic foraminifera, with a total of 46 species that belong to 23 genera, Three zones and four subzones, which cover the Late Campanian to the Latest Maastrichtian, were identified based on the recorded planktonic foraminifera and their ranges. They are as follows:1. Globotruncana aegyptiaca Zone that dated to be Lat

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of monetary policy in the aggregate indicator of banking stability in Iraq: An applied research in the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2010 - 2017)
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The research sought to demonstrate the effectiveness of monetary policy in banking stability by measuring the impact of monetary policy in the composite index of banking stability in Iraq for the period 2010/2017, as the stability of the financial system is one of the main objectives that the Central Bank is keen to achieve along with other objectives to ensure the performance Effective for all economic units, this is what prompted the central banks to give more attention in ensuring the safety, durability and stability of their financial systems, and the increasing interest by the Central Bank of Iraq in the subject of financial stability stems from its responsibility in ensuring a sound and stable financial system. Maintain it and mini

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The supervisory role of the central bank in the protection of commercial banks: An applied research in the Economy Bank for Investment and Finance
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Represents a supervisory and oversight role of the Central Bank  towards finding a sober banking sector, as the procedures , regulations and laws that the Central Bank insists on its implementation with the utmost precision, and that was to protect depositors and shareholders' class basis rights, but it is in the interest of the bank in the end, as it seeks to improve the performance of commercial banks and vaccinated against falling into the blunders, they also contribute to building a sober and stable banking sector and security contributes to the welfare and employment optimization of economic resources, and treatment of research (and the presence of banks decline in financial performance, according to financial performance indic

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 02 2015
Journal Name
Asian J. Res. Pharm. Sci.
Prevalence of Pathogenic Bacteria from Contaminated Yemeni Currency Notes in Taiz City
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ABSTRACT: Pathogenic bacteria responsible for the causation of many common diseases have been identified on currency notes. The present investigation was carried out on one hundred currency notes of all the denominations (50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000RY), obtained from different occupational mainly bus drivers, hawker street, vegetable vendor, restaurants and butchers and fish seller groups in Taiz city,Yemen. Identification and characterization revealed active participation of the following species of organisms in the ascending order of percentage as E. coli(50.28 %),Staphylococci aureus(14.04 %), Klebsiellaspp(4.39 %),proteus(4.39 %), salmonella(1.25 %), shigella(0.72 %), Coagulase negative staphylococcus(0.60 %), pseudomonas(0.50 %),

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the volatility of US stock market indices and the volatility of oil prices
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The volatility of the financial markets and the oil market plays a major role in influencing macroeconomic activity, as well as the high interaction between the both markets and the remarkable sensitivity to their each other fluctuations which cause the undesirable impact on other economic sectors as an expected result due the mentioned interaction.

The study aimed to analyze the relationship between the volatility of the major US market indices represented by the DJIA index, S & P500, due to their comprehensiveness of the financial market, as they summarize the performance of the entire US market which is the largest economy in the world, as well as the difference in the calculation mechanism, and oi

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE IMPACT OF CURRENCY AUCTION ON THE VARIABILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN IRAQ 2004-2015
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The transition states that Iraq economy lived it after 2003, and the change in tools used by monetary policy based on C.B.I law 56 in 2004, under the especially situation for the economy (structural imbalances and the weakness of banking & financial sector).

The monetary policy adopted the inflation targeting policy to mantain the monetary stability in the economy and considered it an incubator for future growth. It used the exchange rate as a nominal anchor to achieve the goal (because the rentier of economy, finance Shallowness & separation between real sector and finance sector, all this cause the normal channel to transfer the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) ineffective.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 22 2020
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Manufacture of Portland cement from Late Miocene claystone, Injana formation, Central Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
Evidence Supports The Formation Of Isoimides Derived From Pyromellitic Dianhydride
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Some new mono isoimides of asymmetrical pyromillitdiimide derived from pyromellitic dianhydride were synthesized and studied by their melting points, FTIR, and 1HNMR spectroscopy and CHN analysis (for some of them) and it was proved that the mechanism of the formation of these isoimides followed, the mechanism suggested by Cotter et al. by using N, N─-dicyclohexylcarbodiimide as dehydrating agent, in spite of the groups attached to the phenyl moiety as mentioned in literatures.