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Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the volatility of US stock market indices and the volatility of oil prices

The volatility of the financial markets and the oil market plays a major role in influencing macroeconomic activity, as well as the high interaction between the both markets and the remarkable sensitivity to their each other fluctuations which cause the undesirable impact on other economic sectors as an expected result due the mentioned interaction.

The study aimed to analyze the relationship between the volatility of the major US market indices represented by the DJIA index, S & P500, due to their comprehensiveness of the financial market, as they summarize the performance of the entire US market which is the largest economy in the world, as well as the difference in the calculation mechanism, and oil market benchmarks: West Intermediate Texas(WTI), Brent and Dubai, using a monthly data for the period 1990-2016. The data were integrated at the first rank, which encouraged the researchers to run the Johansson and Juselius model in order to explore the Cointegration relationship between the variables, causality test, along with Vector Error Correction Model - VECM.

The study found an important relationship between The volatility of financial markets indices and volatility of crude oil prices. in one part, it was characterized by the causal influence between the S & P 500 index and the Oil benchmarks. Meanwhile, the volatility of the DJIA index has had an important impact on the formation of long-term volatility in crude oil prices.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Causal Relationship between Stock Market Indices Volatility and Oil Prices Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Iraqi Stock Exchange

The study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.

The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing the relationship between stock market volatility and economic activity in the USA

This study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index  and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure and analyze the relationship between oil prices and the Iraqi dinar exchange rate

In this research, we discussed and analyzed the relationship between oil prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Iraq. The study adopted the descriptive analysis and econometrics analysis. The descriptive analysis refers to the rise (fall) in crude oil price lead to appreciate (depreciate) in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, though the channel of the international reserves. The econometrics analysis is based on monthly data covered the period (December/2002 – December/2011), the unit root test, co-integration test, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test have been adopted in this research to check the existence and direction of this relationship. The results refer to the lon

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Causal relationship between sugar prices, imported sun flower oil, crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar

Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the relationship between the prices of wheat and rice importer in Iraq and crude oil prices and the exchange rate using the ARDL model

Since the beginning of 21st century, the prices of Agricultural crops have increased. This Increases is accompanied with that increases of crude oil prices and fluctuation of a dollar exchange rate as a dominant currency used in the global trade. The paper aimed to analysis the short run and long run cointegration relationships between prices of some of Agricultural crops imported by Iraq such as wheat and rice crops and both the crude oil prices and the Iraq dinar exchange rate a gained America dollar using ARDL model. The results show the long run equilibrium between they three variable throng the error correction mechanizem. The results also show the significant and economically sound effects of cru

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing The Causal Relationship between Investing Government Expenditure non-oil GDP in Iraq For The Period (1990-2011)

The investment government expenditure is considered the fundamental of enhancing the economic activity as it has become a mean for achieving capital accumulation in all economic  sectors, The Iraqi economy is characterized of being yield unilateral depending petroleum  revenues as an essential  resource of financing government expenditure , as  the contribution of petroleum  sector in GDP is large in proportions to other economic sectors  contribution.

 The relationship between investing government expenditure, and non-oil GDP  is about to be not existent during the

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the fiscal policy indicators and the bank stability index in Iraq for the period 2010-2016 using the ARDL model.

The importance of this research is to clarify the nature and the relationship between the indicators of financial policy and banking stability in Iraq, as well as to find a composite index reflects the state of banking stability in Iraq in order to provide an appropriate means to help policymakers in making appropriate decisions before the occurrence of financial crises.

     Hence, the problem of research is that the fiscal policy has implications for the macro economy and does not rule out its impact on banking stability. Moreover, the central bank does not possess a single indicator that reflects the stability of the banking system, rather than the scattered indicators that depend o

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Relationship between accounting Conservatism, Persistence and volatility of earnings of companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange

The study aimed to show the concept and importance of accounting Conservatism, Persistence and volatility of earnings of companies listed in the Iraqi market for securities have been selected 35 companies for the period between 2013 to 2107 used the scale of book value to market value to measure the Conservatism while the current profit regression model was used to measure future profits Eviews 9 was used for the purpose of testing the two hypotheses. The results of the study found that there is a statistically significant relationship between accounting Conservatism and Persistence of earnings. The relationship is inverse with no statistically significant relationship between Conservatism and earnings volatility.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the Causal Relationship Long-and Short-term Between the Price of Crude Oil, the Global Price of Gold and the US. Dollar Exchange Rate

This research aims to test the causal relationship long-and short-run between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar and how you can take advantage of the nature of this relationship, particularly in the Arab oil states that achieve huge surpluses, including Iraq and how to keep on the purchasing power of these surpluses or reduce the levels of risk.

The problem is that the Arab oil countries, adversely affected, as a result of that relationship, due to the fact that its role confined to the sale of crude oil only. They do not have control in the dollar, then they are not able to take advantage of its impact on the price of gold the fact that gold is effective pr

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuation on the budget Deficit base in Iraq for the period (2003-2020)

Abstract

                 The research dealt with a studying the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the rules of financial discipline, which is the rule of budget deficit in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2020) as it is one of the quarterly economies that rely mainly on volatile oil revenues that fluctuate with oil prices in global markets, and therefore the general budget suffers. from The state of instability and then the government resorts to borrowing for a long time . this deficit in the general budget and increase the debt burden in the public debt.The research aim to measure and study the impact of oil price flu

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