The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
A total of 228 domestic and wild animals, including sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, camels, horses, donkeys, dogs, cats, wild hares, Asiatic jackals, and red foxes were examined for ixodid ticks in the central region of Iraq. Nine species of ixodid ticks belong to two genera namely Hyalomma anatolicum Koch, 1844, H. excavatum Koch, 1844, H. turanicum Pomerantsef, 1946, H. scupense Delpy, 1946, H. dromedarii Koch, 1844, H. schulzei Olenev, 1931, Rhipicephalus annulatus (Say, 1821), R. turanicus Pomerantsef & al., 1940 and R. leporis Pomerantsef, 1946 were recovered. Their distribution among hosts and infestation rates were di
... Show MoreA detailed systematic study of calcareous nannofossils was carried out for the Jaddala Formation in (Aj-10) well, Central Iraq. Seventy one species belong to twenty four genera of calcareous nannofossils were identified including sixty two of them were previously named and nine species were identified for the first time and they would not be given names until more information is obtained in the future to support this identification.
It is a recorded of five biostratigraphic zone, which suggested the age of the Jaddala Formation to be of early to late Eocene. The recorded biozone includes the following: Reticulofenestra dictyoda (Deflandre in Deflandre & Fert, 1954) Stradner & Edwards, 1968 Partial Range Biozone (CNE 5); Discoa
The management of the exchange rate of the most important tools of economic policy because of its wide area in achieving stability and economic growth through the provision of stability in the exchange rate of the currency of the country concerned , as well as the impact and influence of money supply and then treat the economic crisis monetary and reduce the risk of currency exchange rate .For the management of the exchange rate in Iraq has passed through several stages , from installation to link to a basket of currencies to float freely , and we are dealing with in this research regard to the achievements of monetary policy , especially after the enjoyment of independence on according to the Iraqi Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004 and Ma
... Show MoreElectronic banking services appeared as a result of laying the foundations for the application of electronic automation in the banking field, and despite the clear expansion in its adoption and implementation as an inevitable necessity imposed by international and national developments, its application was not ideal according to the level that was expected to occur after the abandonment of traditional banking services, which produced some risks Which is evident in the absence of a legal system, whether at the level of proving and authoritative electronic banking services such as electronic signature, Or at the level of protecting the confidentiality of these services and ensuring that they are not exp
... Show Moresome ecological (physical and chemical varible) of water samples were studies monthly from December 2008 to May 2009 at two stations( St.1) Al - Chibayesh marsh and (St.2) Abu – Zirik marsh which are located in the south of Iraq . These variables included : Temperature, pH, EC, Dissolved oxygen , Total alkalinity, Nitrate, Sulphate, and phosphate, Si-SiO2 and Ca ,Mg, Cl, The marsh Considered as fresh water and alkaline. Abu-Zirik less than Al-Chibayesh.
This work deals with the nematode parasitesfrom the midgut of (16) specimens of Green
toad (Bufo viridis) Laurenti, 1768 collected from Baghdad area,central Iraq.
The parasites are:Cosmocercoides variabilis (Cosmocercidae) that considered as the first
report in Iraq on it and Oswaldocruzia filiformis (Molineidae).
Acuaria skrjabini Ozerskaya, 1926 and Dispharynx nasuta (Rudolphi, 1819) Stiles and Hassall, 1920, were found embedded in the mucosa of the gizzards of 26.97% of house sparrows, Passer domesticus biblicus collected in Baghdad City. Their morphometric and meristic features were expressed and compared with that reported in other studies.
Carbonate-clastic succession which includes the Shu'aiba, Nahr Umr and Mauddud formations are representing a part of the Barremian-Aptian Sequence (Wasi'a Group). The present study includes three boreholes (Ba-1, 4 and 8) within the Balad Oil Field. The study area is located in central Iraq. This field represents a subsurface anticline with a northwest to southeast direction axis within the Mesopotamian Zone. Eight types of microfacies were recognized in the succession of the Mauddud and Shu’aiba formations. These microfacies represent shallow open marine, restricted and semi-restricted, reef - back reef, deep open marine and basinal depositional environments. While Nahr Umr Formation includes two successions, the first is the upp
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the role of strategic improvisation as an independent variable with its dimensions (Building the Solution, Intuition, Adaptation, and Spontaneity) and the Entrepreneurial Orientation as a dependent variable with its dimensions (Identifying Opportunities, Creativity, Adopting risk, and Vision). This research has been applied in the Rafidain Bank and its branches (Sunk, People, Al-Firdaws, and Alawiya); it used the questionnaire as a basic tool for collecting information. The sample was intentionality, which included all the heads of departments in the bank’s branches, which amounted to (33) workers, and data on the questionnaire paragraphs of 28 were processed using the SPSS V.23 and AMOS V.23). The most impor
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