The currency in circulation is a key element of the monetary supply system of the Iraqi economy because itreflects the level of economic activity and the liquidity level in the market. It can be expressed as an important tool when formulating monetary policy. This research aims to analyze and forecast the behavior of the currency in circulation in Iraq using the ARMA-GARCH model for monthly data from 2004 to 2025 to understand the dynamics of monetary liquidity, The sample was divided into two parts: approximately 80% for the training set (2004-2021), and approximately 20% for the testing set (2022-2025). Data were analyzed in Python using many packages. The results showed that the time series was initially non-stationary but became stationary after the first difference. The presence of the ARCH effect, i.e., the unstable variance, justifies the use of the GARCH model to analyze volatility. The ARMA-GARCH model was found to be the most appropriate model for representing the data, achieving the lowest values for the used criteria: RMSE, MAE, BIC, AIC. Furthermore, this study provides a free, open API that allows researchers from around the world to upload their own datasets and obtain instant comprehensive statistical analyses (including tables, diagnostics, and downloadable plots) based on an identical ARMA-GARCH framework. This paper recommends combining the GARCH model with machine learning techniques or Bayesian models, which will increase the accuracy of predictions and the effectiveness of future monetarypolicy choices
Water pollution is an issue that can be exacerbated by drought as increased concentrations of unwanted substances are a consequence of lower water levels. Polluted water that flows into natural marshlands leads to the deposition of pollutants in the interior of the marsh. Here we present evidence that the interior of the Central Marsh (CM) in southern Iraq suffers from higher levels of pollution than areas closer to the source of water entering the marsh (the Euphrates River). A 1.7m embankment that halts the flow of the Euphrates is only infrequently breached and so the CM is effectively the terminal destination of the waters (and their associated pollutants and agricultural waste) flowing from the West of Iraq.
A range of water
... Show MoreThis paper proposes a new structure of the hybrid neural controller based on the identification model for nonlinear systems. The goal of this work is to employ the structure of the Modified Elman Neural Network (MENN) model into the NARMA-L2 structure instead of Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model in order to construct a new hybrid neural structure that can be used as an identifier model and a nonlinear controller for the SISO linear or nonlinear systems. Weight parameters of the hybrid neural structure with its serial-parallel configuration are adapted by using the Back propagation learning algorithm. The ability of the proposed hybrid neural structure for nonlinear system has achieved a fast learning with minimum number
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reach the best rating for the views and variables in the totals characterized by qualities and characteristics common within each group and distinguish them from aggregates other for the purpose of distinguishing between Iraqi provinces which suffer from deprivation, for the purpose of identifying the status of those provinces in the early allowing interested parties and regulators to intervene to take appropriate corrective action in a timely manner. Style has been used cluster analysis Cluster analysis to reach the best rating to those totals from the provinces that suffer from problems, where the provinces were classified, based on the variables (Edu
... Show MoreThis study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre
Specimens of the hedgehog Hemiechinus auritus Gmelin. which were trapped in two places on the Eastern shores of the Tigris River, some 50 and 60 Km, south of Baghdad. central Iraq. were searched for ectoparasites. They revealed the following parasites: One species of Anoplura: polyplex spinulosa (Burm.), family Hoplople uridae, two species of fleas: Synostrnus pallidus (Tasch.) and Ctenocephalides felis (Bouche), family pulicidae, One mite species: Ornithonyssus bacoti (Hirst), family Macronyssidae and two tick species: Rhipicephalus leporis and R. turanicum family Ixodidae. All these ectoparasite species are new records on this hedgehog in Iraq.
The Central Marshes are one of southern Iraq's most important wetlands and ecosystems. A study on evaluating soil quality and water quality in terms of chemical properties at certain sites in the southern Iraqi Central Marshes has been conducted to investigate their types and suitability for enhancing the agricultural reality of most field crops. Soil and water samples were collected from 15 sites and transferred to the laboratory. In the lab, the following parameters were determined: electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved salts (TDS), organic materials (OM), pH, gypsum, and total sulfate content (SO3). The tests conducted on the samples indicated that it could be said that the soil of the Central Marshes
... Show MoreNon uniform channelization is a crucial task in cognitive radio receivers for obtaining separate channels from the digitized wideband input signal at different intervals of time. The two main requirements in the channelizer are reconfigurability and low complexity. In this paper, a reconfigurable architecture based on a combination of Improved Coefficient Decimation Method (ICDM) and Coefficient Interpolation Method (CIM) is proposed. The proposed Hybrid Coefficient Decimation-Interpolation Method (HCDIM) based filter bank (FB) is able to realize the same number of channels realized using (ICDM) but with a maximum decimation factor divided by the interpolation factor (L), which leads to less deterioration in stop band at
... Show MoreDrilling fluid loss during drilling operation is undesirable, expensive and potentially hazardous problem.
Nasiriyah oil field is one of the Iraqi oil field that suffer from lost circulation problem. It is known that Dammam, um-Radoma, Tayarat, Shiranish and Hartha are the detecting layers of loss circulation problem. Different type of loss circulation materials (LCMs) ranging from granular, flakes and fibrous were used previously to treat this problem.
This study presents the application of rice as a lost circulation material that used to mitigate and stop the loss problem when partial or total losses occurred.
The experim
... Show MoreBackground: Dietary intakes are critical during pregnancy, because inadequate amounts of key nutrients may compromise fetal development or maternal health. In addition to that maternal diet could be one of the methods to select the gender of the baby. The aim of the study is to correlate the level of the minerals in the mother’s blood with the gender and wellbeing of the baby after delivery.Patients and Methods: Fifty women were involved in this study with a mean age (23.92 ± 4.75), collected from the labor room during labor in the period between December 2013 and May 2014, in Baghdad teaching hospital. After taking a full history from the women, 10 ml of blood was withdrawn from them, 2ml in EDTA tubes for lead estimation and 8 ml in pl
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