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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Population Therapeutics & Clinical Pharmacology
A systematic review of Antimicrobial peptides and their current applications
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In present days, drug resistance is a major emerging problem in the healthcare sector. Novel antibiotics are in considerable need because present effective treatments have repeatedly failed. Antimicrobial peptides are the biologically active secondary metabolites produced by a variety of microorganisms like bacteria, fungi, and algae, which possess surface activity reduction activity along with this they are having antimicrobial, antifungal, and antioxidant antibiofilm activity. Antimicrobial peptides include a wide variety of bioactive compounds such as Bacteriocins, glycolipids, lipopeptides, polysaccharide-protein complexes, phospholipids, fatty acids, and neutral lipids. Bioactive peptides derived from various natural sources like bacte

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design and Implementation of a Telemetry System for Environmental Applications
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The Environmental Data Acquisition Telemetry System is a versatile, flexible and economical means to accumulate data from multiple sensors at remote locations over an extended period of time; the data is normally transferred to the final destination and saved for further analysis.

This paper introduces the design and implementation of a simplified, economical and practical telemetry system to collect and transfer the environmental parameters (humidity, temperature, pressure etc.) from a remote location (Rural Area) to the processing and displaying unit.

To get a flexible and practical system, three data transfer methods (three systems) were proposed (including the design and implementation) for rural area services, the fi

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 27 2024
Journal Name
Mathematical Modelling Of Engineering Problems
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Prey-Predator Model with Fear Effect and Harvesting
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2024
Journal Name
Malaysian Journal Of Mathematical Sciences
Dynamics of a Social Model for Marriage and Divorce Relationship with Fear Effect
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The objective of this article is to delve into the intricate dynamics of marriage relationships, exploring the impact of emotions such as fear, love, financial considerations and likability. In our investigation, we adopt a perspective that acknowledges the nonlinear nature of interactions among individuals. Diverging from certain prior studies, we propose that the fear element within the context of marriage is not a singular, isolated factor but rather a manifestation resulting from the amalgamation of numerous social issues. This, in turn, contributes to the emergence of strained and unsuccessful relationships. Unlike conventional approaches, we extensively examine the conditions essential for the existence of all socially signifi

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 02 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming with Practical Physical Applications
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Linear programming currently occupies a prominent position in various fields and has wide applications, as its importance lies in being a means of studying the behavior of a large number of systems as well. It is also the simplest and easiest type of models that can be created to address industrial, commercial, military and other dilemmas. Through which to obtain the optimal quantitative value. In this research, we dealt with the post optimality solution, or what is known as sensitivity analysis, using the principle of shadow prices. The scientific solution to any problem is not a complete solution once the optimal solution is reached. Any change in the values of the model constants or what is known as the inputs of the model that will chan

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
using collocation method for solving differential equations with time lag
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in this paper the collocation method will be solve ordinary differential equations of retarted arguments also some examples are presented in order to illustrate this approach

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 09 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Mechatronics And Applied Mechanics
DESIGN OF A HYDRAULIC MOTION CONTROL SYSTEM USING TWO BACKSTEPPING TIME VARYING SLIDING MODE STRATEGIES
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A second-order sliding mode control is used for high-order uncertain plants using equivalent control approach to improve the performance of control systems. They combine backstepping with quasi-continuous controller and twisting controllers. This paper considers a two of the most popular controllers that are used to solve the nonlinearities problem which are the backstepping quasi-continuous control (BQCC) and backstepping twisting controllers to control the angular velocity of a hydraulic motor to improve tracking performance and robustness to uncertainties. For the system dynamics, a linear state feedback with suitable high gain was designed as the virtual controller, where steady state error can be made arbitrarily small according to the

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Socar Proceedings
Enhanced permeability estimation in non-cored wells using a modified flow zone index-permeability crossplot: a case study of carbonate reservoirs
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The permeability estimates for the uncored wells and a porosity function adopting a modified flow zone index-permeability crossplot are given in this work. The issues with implementing that approach were mostly crossplots, due to the influence of geological heterogeneity, did not show a clear connection (scatter data). Carbonate reservoir flow units may now be identified and characterized using a new approach, which has been formally confirmed. Due to the comparable distribution and flow of clastic and carbonate rock fluids, this zoning method is most effective for reservoirs with significant primary and secondary porosity. The equations and correlations here are more generalizable since they connect these variables by combining cor

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