Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The objective of this article is to delve into the intricate dynamics of marriage relationships, exploring the impact of emotions such as fear, love, financial considerations and likability. In our investigation, we adopt a perspective that acknowledges the nonlinear nature of interactions among individuals. Diverging from certain prior studies, we propose that the fear element within the context of marriage is not a singular, isolated factor but rather a manifestation resulting from the amalgamation of numerous social issues. This, in turn, contributes to the emergence of strained and unsuccessful relationships. Unlike conventional approaches, we extensively examine the conditions essential for the existence of all socially signifi
... Show Morein this paper the collocation method will be solve ordinary differential equations of retarted arguments also some examples are presented in order to illustrate this approach
Many production companies suffers from big losses because of high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.
The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.
I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures
... Show MoreA second-order sliding mode control is used for high-order uncertain plants using equivalent control approach to improve the performance of control systems. They combine backstepping with quasi-continuous controller and twisting controllers. This paper considers a two of the most popular controllers that are used to solve the nonlinearities problem which are the backstepping quasi-continuous control (BQCC) and backstepping twisting controllers to control the angular velocity of a hydraulic motor to improve tracking performance and robustness to uncertainties. For the system dynamics, a linear state feedback with suitable high gain was designed as the virtual controller, where steady state error can be made arbitrarily small according to the
... Show MoreThe permeability estimates for the uncored wells and a porosity function adopting a modified flow zone index-permeability crossplot are given in this work. The issues with implementing that approach were mostly crossplots, due to the influence of geological heterogeneity, did not show a clear connection (scatter data). Carbonate reservoir flow units may now be identified and characterized using a new approach, which has been formally confirmed. Due to the comparable distribution and flow of clastic and carbonate rock fluids, this zoning method is most effective for reservoirs with significant primary and secondary porosity. The equations and correlations here are more generalizable since they connect these variables by combining cor
... Show MoreIn this work, the pseudoparabolic problem of the fourth order is investigated to identify the time -dependent potential term under periodic conditions, namely, the integral condition and overdetermination condition. The existence and uniqueness of the solution to the inverse problem are provided. The proposed method involves discretizing the pseudoparabolic equation by using a finite difference scheme, and an iterative optimization algorithm to resolve the inverse problem which views as a nonlinear least-square minimization. The optimization algorithm aims to minimize the difference between the numerical computing solution and the measured data. Tikhonov’s regularization method is also applied to gain stable results. Two
... Show MoreThis study aims to design unified electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of using papers to count absence, with a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.
In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst
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