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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2026
Journal Name
Molecular Genetics And Metabolism Reports
Acid sphingomyelinase deficiency: Phenotypic, biochemical, and molecular heterogeneity in a series of 47 Iraqi patients from a single center
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Objectives Acid sphingomyelinase deficiency (ASMD) is an inherited autosomal recessive disease caused by pathogenic variants in the sphingomyelin phosphodiesterase-1 (SMPD1) gene, which encodes acid sphingomyelinase (ASM). ASMD has 3 broad phenotypes (type A, type A/B, and type B) characterized by the age of onset, symptomatology, and the rapidity of disease progression. The diagnosis of ASMD can be delayed or missed because of the wide spectrum of severity and its variable manifestations. Analysis of genotype-phenotype correlations can help to determine ASMD disease type and inform management. Here, we describe the clinical presentation of 47 patients with ASMD referred to a single center in Iraq since 2007, whose diagnosis was confirmed b

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2019
Journal Name
Molecular Crystals And Liquid Cryst
A New Series of Triazine-core Based Mesogenic Derivatives: Synthesis, Characterization and Mesomorphic Study
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The synthesis, characterization and mesomorphic properties of two new series of triazine-core based liquid crystals have been investigated. The amino triazine derivatives were characterized by elemental analysis, Fourier transforms infrared (FTIR), 1HNMR and mass spectroscopy. The liquid crystalline properties of these compounds were examined by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and polarizing optical microscopy (POM). DSC and POM confirmed nematic (N) and columnar mesophase textures of the materials. The formation of mesomorphic properties was found to be dependent on the number of methylene unit in alkoxy side chains.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 29 2024
Journal Name
Banks And Bank Systems
Fiscal and real repercussions of the Central Bank of Iraq’s real estate initiatives by using Multiple Correspondence Analysis
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The importance of the study stems from the fact that Iraq’s economy is facing a housing crisis, especially in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, great demographic pressure due to pronounced population growth over the past two decades. The Central Bank of Iraq undertakes several initiatives represented in granting real estate loans, mainly through the Real Estate Bank at very low interest, and in the last two years, the interest has become zero. The purpose of the study is to analyze the fiscal implications of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiatives, as well as its real impact on the spatial dimension of the Iraqi governorates through new housing in those governorates. Using data mainly from the Central Bank of Iraq’s bulleti

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2026
Journal Name
Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing
Predicting Public Budget Surplus and Deficit Using a Hybrid 1D-CNN–LSTM Model
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The fiscal position of governments in rentier economies depends heavily on oil revenues. The relationship between oil prices and the budget surplus or deficit is often nonlinear and characterized by complex temporal dependencies, which may limit the predictive capability of conventional econometric models. Accordingly, this study aims to forecast the Iraqi budget surplus and deficit and compare the predictive performance of the ARDL, NARDL, LSTM, 1D-CNN, and hybrid 1D-CNN-LSTM models using oil prices as the primary predictive variable. The hybrid model integrates the feature-extraction capability of One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN) with the ability of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture long-term

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Trends In Pharmaceutical Sciences
A REVIEW: CEFPODOXIME PROXETIL (DOXEF. PROXETIL) DISCOVERY, PREPARATION, APPLICATIONS AND COMPARISON WITH CEFPODOXIME- CLAVULANIC ACID IN ACTIVITY
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of antibacterial effect of irrigant solutions (titanium tetra fluoride, green tea, sodium hypochlorite, normal saline) using real-time quantitative – polymerase chain reaction
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Background: Removal of bacteria from the pulp system by instrumentation of an infected root canal, will be significantly reduced the number of bacteria, but it is well documented that instrumentation alone can-not clean and kill all bacteria found on the root canal walls. Antibacterial irrigants are needed to kill the remaining microorganisms. The aims of this study was to assess antibacterial effect of titanium tetrafluoride (TiF4) solution and brewing green tea against root canal bacteria and to compare with sodium hypochlorite and normal saline through microbiological and molecular studies. Materials and methods: Microbiological study was carried out to determine the concentration of titanium tetrafluoride and brewing green tea at which

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 05 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Mathematical Research
Approximate solution of a model describing biological species living together using a new iterative method
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Population Therapeutics And Clinical Pharmacology
A systematic review of Antimicrobial peptides and their current applications
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on leather

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on

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