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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 21 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of antibacterial effect of irrigant solutions (titanium tetra fluoride, green tea, sodium hypochlorite, normal saline) using real-time quantitative – polymerase chain reaction
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Background: Removal of bacteria from the pulp system by instrumentation of an infected root canal, will be significantly reduced the number of bacteria, but it is well documented that instrumentation alone can-not clean and kill all bacteria found on the root canal walls. Antibacterial irrigants are needed to kill the remaining microorganisms. The aims of this study was to assess antibacterial effect of titanium tetrafluoride (TiF4) solution and brewing green tea against root canal bacteria and to compare with sodium hypochlorite and normal saline through microbiological and molecular studies. Materials and methods: Microbiological study was carried out to determine the concentration of titanium tetrafluoride and brewing green tea at which

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Overlapping Structure Detection in Protein-Protein Interaction Networks Using a Modified Version of Particle Swarm Optimization
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In today's world, the science of bioinformatics is developing rapidly, especially with regard to the analysis and study of biological networks. Scientists have used various nature-inspired algorithms to find protein complexes in protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. These networks help scientists guess the molecular function of unknown proteins and show how cells work regularly. It is very common in PPI networks for a protein to participate in multiple functions and belong to many complexes, and as a result, complexes may overlap in the PPI networks. However, developing an efficient and reliable method to address the problem of detecting overlapping protein complexes remains a challenge since it is considered a complex and har

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the Anticancer and Antimicrobial Biological Activity of a New Series of Thiohydantoin Derivatives
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        Recently, some prostate cancer patients have acquired resistance to the second -generation drugs (anzalutamide and apalutamide) prescribed for the treatment of this disease due to the emergence of the F876L mutation, which represents a challenge to modern medicine. In this study, a new series of 2-thiohydantoin derivatives were prepared through the reaction of different derivatives of maleimide (1c-4c) with isothiocyanate derivatives. The prepared compounds were diagnosed using FT-IR,1H-NMR ,13C-NMR, Mass spectra. The prepared series compounds has been studied against prostate cancer cells. The MTT assay was used to determine the activity of the prepared compounds against prostate cancer cells. The da

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 16 2026
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Metabolic, Electrolyte, and Hepatobiliary Complications of Parenteral Nutrition in Neonates: A Prospective Case-Series Study
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Background: Parenteral nutrition (PN) is a life‑saving intervention for neonates who are unable to meet their nutritional requirements through enteral feeding. Despite its essential role, PN is frequently associated with metabolic, electrolyte, and hepatobiliary complications. Objective: To evaluate the frequency and pattern of metabolic, electrolyte, and hepatobiliary complications associated with PN administration in neonates. Methods: A prospective case-series study was conducted in two tertiary neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in Baghdad, Iraq. Term and preterm neonates who received PN for at least five days were included. PN‑related metabolic, electrolyte, hepatobiliary, and hematological complications were recorded an

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 15 2024
Journal Name
Mongolian Journal Of Chemistry
Using activated and modified adsorbent surfaces from banana peels to remove the green Janus dye:
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In order for the process of removing pollutants, including dyes, from the aquatic environment to be effective, plant wastes such as banana peels were used as adsorbent surfaces by thermally activating them (ABP) and modifying them with iron oxide nanoparticles (MABP), which were characterized using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. They were applied in the field of Janus green (JG) dye adsorption for the batch system and studied the effect of several factors (adsorbent weight, contact time, initial concentration, and temperature). Their data were analyzed kinetically using first- and second-order kinetic models and they were found to follow the second order. Their data were also analyzed thro

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 15 2024
Journal Name
Mongolian Journal Of Chemistry
Using activated and modified adsorbent surfaces from banana peels to remove the green Janus dye:
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In order for the process of removing pollutants, including dyes, from the aquatic environment to be effective, plant wastes such as banana peels were used as adsorbent surfaces by thermally activating them (ABP) and modifying them with iron oxide nanoparticles (MABP), which were characterized using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. They were applied in the field of Janus green (JG) dye adsorption for the batch system and studied the effect of several factors (adsorbent weight, contact time, initial concentration, and temperature). Their data were analyzed kinetically using first- and second-order kinetic models and they were found to follow the second order. Their data were also analyzed thro

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Publication Date
Fri May 16 2025
Journal Name
Asean Journal Of Science And Engineering
Enhancing Predictive Maintenance in Energy Systems Using a Hybrid Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) with Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) Framework for Rotating Machinery
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This study proposes a hybrid predictive maintenance framework that integrates the Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) with Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) for intelligent fault diagnosis in industrial rotating machinery. The method is designed to address challenges posed by non-linear and non-stationary vibration signals under varying operational conditions. Experimental validation using the FALEX multispecimen test bench demonstrated a high classification accuracy of 97.5%, outperforming traditional models such as SVM, Random Forest, and XGBoost. The approach maintained robust performance across dynamic load scenarios and noisy environments, with precision and recall exceeding 95%. Key contributions include a hardware-accelerated K

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 12 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design a Vegetative Filter Strips Length Using VFSMOD_W Model for Reducing Sediments and Pesticides
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 Abstract 

The vegetative filter strips (VFS) are a useful tool used for reducing the movement of sediment and pesticide in therivers. The filter strip’s soil can help in reducing the runoff volume by infiltration. However, the characteristics of VFS (i.e., length) are not recently identified depending on the estimation of VFS modeling performance. The aim of this research is to study these characteristics and determine acorrelation between filter strip length and percent reduction (trapping efficiency) for sediment, water, and pesticide. Two proposed pesticides(one has organic carbon sorption coefficient, Koc, of 147 L/kg which is more moveable than XXXX, and another one

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modified Mathematical Model of Tumor Treatment by Radiotherapy
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In this research, a mathematical model of tumor treatment by radiotherapy is studied and a new modification for the model is proposed as well as introducing the check for the suggested modification. Also the stability of the modified model is analyzed in the last section.

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