Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The term "nano gold," also known as "gold nanoparticles," is commonly used. These particles are extremely small, with a diameter of less than 100 nm, which is only a fraction of the width of a human hair. Due to their tiny size, nano gold particles are often found in a colloidal solution, where they are suspended in a liquid stabilizer. This colloidal gold is essentially another name for nano gold. The main method for producing gold nanoparticles in a colloidal solution is the citrate synthesis technique, which involves combining different solutions to precipitate the gold nanoparticles. In biological systems, copper complexes play a significant role at the active sites of many metalloproteins. These complexes have potential applications in
... Show MoreThis paper deals with modelling and control of Euler-Bernoulli smart beam interacting with a fluid medium. Several distributed piezo-patches (actuators and/or sensors) are bonded on the surface of the target beam. To model the vibrating beam properly, the effect of the piezo-patches and the hydrodynamic loads should be taken into account carefully. The partial differential equation PDE for the target oscillating beam is derived considering the piezo-actuators as input controls. Fluid forces are decomposed into two components: 1) hydrodynamic forces due to the beam oscillations, and 2) external (disturbance) hydrodynamic loads independent of beam motion. Then the PDE is discretized usi
Taking into account the significance of food chains in the environment, it demonstrates the interdependence of all living things and has economic implications for people. Hunting cooperation, fear, and intraspecific competition are all included in a food chain model that has been developed and researched. The study tries to comprehend how these elements affect the behavior of species along the food chain. We first examined the suggested model's solution properties before calculating every potential equilibrium point and examining the stability and bifurcation nearby. We have identified the factors that guarantee the global stability of the positive equilibrium point using the geometric approach. Additionally, the circumstances that would gu
... Show MoreAbstract—The upper limb amputation exerts a significant burden on the amputee, limiting their ability to perform everyday activities, and degrading their quality of life. Amputee patients’ quality of life can be improved if they have natural control over their prosthetic hands. Among the biological signals, most commonly used to predict upper limb motor intentions, surface electromyography (sEMG), and axial acceleration sensor signals are essential components of shoulder-level upper limb prosthetic hand control systems. In this work, a pattern recognition system is proposed to create a plan for categorizing high-level upper limb prostheses in seven various types of shoulder girdle motions. Thus, combining seven feature groups, w
... Show MoreThis work discusses the beginning of fractional calculus and how the Sumudu and Elzaki transforms are applied to fractional derivatives. This approach combines a double Sumudu-Elzaki transform strategy to discover analytic solutions to space-time fractional partial differential equations in Mittag-Leffler functions subject to initial and boundary conditions. Where this method gets closer and closer to the correct answer, and the technique's efficacy is demonstrated using numerical examples performed with Matlab R2015a.
This paper reports the synthesis and use of a novel metal-organic framework (MOF), named Zr-BADS, within the thin-film nanocomposite (TFN) membranes for reverse osmosis (RO) applications. Two types of zirconium-based MOFs, Zr-BADS-1 and Zr-BADS-2, were synthesized via a solvothermal method using bicinchoninic acid disodium salt as a linker and either dimethylformamide or ethanol as solvent, respectively. TFN membranes were prepared by embedding these MOFs within the polyamide thin film supported by a polysulfone support sheet. The specific surface area of Zr-BADS-1 and Zr-BADS-2 was determined to be 396.1 and 278.6 m2/g, respectively, indicating significant surface area conducive to water permeation. Scanning electron microscopic analysis r
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This study aims to identify the reality of using electronic applications in teaching language skills to people with mild intellectual disabilities from the mothers’ perspective. A descriptive approach was used. The electronic questionnaires were administered to the study sample, 122 responses were received from mothers of the students with mild intellectual disability in Hafer Al-Baten schools. The response average rate was 94%. The results showed that there are statistically significant differences that are related to the variant of monthly income as for the barriers to using electronic applications in such schools, whereas there were no differences regarding the variant of monthly income regarding t
... Show MoreThis investigation integrates experimental and numerical approaches to study a novel solar air heater aimed at achieving an efficient design for a solar collector suitable for drying applications under the meteorological conditions of Iraq. The importance of this investigation stems from the lack of optimal exploitation of solar energy reaching the solar collector, primarily attributable to elevated thermal losses despite numerous designs employed in such solar systems. Consequently, enhancing the thermal performance of solar collectors, particularly those employed in crop drying applications, stands as a crucial focal point for researchers within this domain. Two identical double-pass solar air heaters were designed and constructed for
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