Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The issue of the research lies in the non-representation of the models developed for the communication process in the interaction and networking processes through social media, as the research sought to build a network model of communication according to the specific data and features of social media platforms in order to reach a special generalization to understand how the process of networking operates in cyberspace.
The researcher followed the analytical survey approach as she described the communication models outwardly in order to be able to build a networked communication model that represents the flow of post-reactive communication. Therefore, it has been named "Nebula - Sadeem" after the concept of post-space and cosmic g
... Show MoreCluster analysis (clustering) is mainly concerned with dividing a number of data elements into clusters. The paper applies this method to create a gathering of symmetrical government agencies with the aim to classify them and understand how far they are close to each other in terms of administrative and financial corruption by means of five variables representing the prevalent administrative and financial corruption in the state institutions. Cluster analysis has been applied to each of these variables to understand the extent to which these agencies are close to other in each of the cases related to the administrative and financial corruption.
The migration from IPv4 to IPv6 can not be achieved in a brief period, thus both protocols co-exist at certain years. IETF Next Generation Transition Working Group (NGtrans) developed IPv4/IPv6 transition mechanisms. Since Iraq infrastructure, including universities, companies and institutions still use IPv4 protocol only. This research article tries to highlight, discuss a required transition roadmap and extend the local knowledge and practice on IPv6. Also, it introduces a prototype model using Packet tracer (network simulator) deployed for the design and implementation of IPv6 migration. Finally, it compares and evaluates the performance of IPv6, IPv4 and dual stack using OPNET based on QoS metrics such as throughput, delay and point to
... Show MoreIn this paper, The transfer function model in the time series was estimated using different methods, including parametric Represented by the method of the Conditional Likelihood Function, as well as the use of abilities nonparametric are in two methods local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method, This research aims to compare those capabilities with the nonlinear transfer function model by using the style of simulation and the study of two models as output variable and one model as input variable in addition t
... Show MoreCalcifying epithelial odontogenic tumour (CEOT) is a benign odontogenic neoplasm of epithelial origin that secretes an amyloid‐like protein tending towards calcification. This study aims to describe a case series from Iraq of one of the rarest odontogenic tumours.
Clinical and histopathological analysis of Calcifying epithelial odontogenic tumour cases that are archived at the oral pathology laboratory of the college of dentistry (Baghdad University) from 2000 to 2019.
Six cases of CEOT were regi
The research aims to determine the strength of the relationship between time management and work pressure and administrative leadership, where he was taken a sample of (47) of the administrative leadership at the Higher Institute of security and administrative development in the Ministry of Interior was used questionnaire as a key tool in collecting data and information and analyzed the answers to the sample surveyed by using Statistical program (spss) in the arithmetic mean of the calculation and test (t) and the correlation coefficient, the research found the most important results: the existence of significant moral positive relationship between both time management and work pressure and administrative leadership, the leadership of th
... Show MoreProsthetic is an artificial tool that replaces a member of the human frame that is absent because of ailment, damage, or distortion. The current research activities in Iraq draw interest to the upper limb discipline because of the growth in the number of amputees. Thus, it becomes necessary to increase researches in this subject to help in reducing the struggling patients. This paper describes the design and development of a prosthesis for people able and wear them from persons who have amputation in the hands. This design is composed of a hand with five fingers moving by means of a gearbox ism mechanism. The design of this artificial hand has 5 degrees of freedom. This artificial hand works based on the principle of &n
... Show MoreIn this paper we estimate the coefficients and scale parameter in linear regression model depending on the residuals are of type 1 of extreme value distribution for the largest values . This can be regard as an improvement for the studies with the smallest values . We study two estimation methods ( OLS & MLE ) where we resort to Newton – Raphson (NR) and Fisher Scoring methods to get MLE estimate because the difficulty of using the usual approach with MLE . The relative efficiency criterion is considered beside to the statistical inference procedures for the extreme value regression model of type 1 for largest values . Confidence interval , hypothesis testing for both scale parameter and regression coefficients
... Show MoreBackground Bilateral cleft lip deformity is much more difficult to correct than unilateral cleft lip deformity. The complexity of the deformity and the sensitive relationships between the arrangement of the muscles and the characteristics of the external lip necessitate a comprehensive preoperative plan for management. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the repair of bilateral cleft lip using the Byrd modification of the traditional Millard and Manchester methods. A key component of this repair technique is focused on reconstruction of the central tubercle.
Methods Fourteen patients with mean age of 5.7 months presented with bilateral cleft lip deformity and were operated on using a mod
... Show MoreThe present work included study of the effects of weather conditions such as solar radiation and ambient temperature on solar panels (monocrystalline 30 Watts) via proposed mathematical model, MATLAB_Simulation was used by scripts file to create a special code to solve the mathematical model , The latter is single –diode model (Five parameter) ,Where the effect of ambient temperature and solar radiation on the output of the solar panel was studied, the Newton Raphson method was used to find the output current of the solar panel and plot P-V ,I-V curves, the performance of the PV was determined at Standard Test Condition (STC) (1000W/m2)and a comparison between theoretical and experimental results were done .The best efficiency
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