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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 23 2026
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Magnetohydrodynyamic Flow for a Viscoclastic Fluid with the Generalized Oldroyd-B Model with Fractional Derivative
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This paper deals with the Magnetohydrodynyamic (Mill)) flow for a viscoclastic fluid of the generalized Oldroyd-B model. The fractional calculus approach is used to establish the constitutive relationship of the non-Newtonian fluid model. Exact analytic solutions for the velocity and shear stress fields in terms of the Fox H-function are obtained by using discrete Laplace transform. The effect of different parameter that controlled the motion and shear stress equations are studied through plotting using the MATHEMATICA-8 software.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using The Maximum Likelihood And Bayesian Methods To Estimate The Time-Rate Function Of Earthquake Phenomenon
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In this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countr

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Review Article Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on leather

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Review Article: Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on leather

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Ultra-broadband Thin Metamaterial Absorber for Ku and K Bands Applications
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In this paper, a design of the broadband thin metamaterial absorber (MMA) is presented. Compared with the previously reported metamaterial absorbers, the proposed structure provides a wide bandwidth with a compatible overall size. The designed absorber consists of a combination of octagon disk and split octagon resonator to provide a wide bandwidth over the Ku and K bands' frequency range. Cheap FR-4 material is chosen to be a substate of the proposed absorber with 1.6 thicknesses and 6.5×6.5 overall unit cell size. CST Studio Suite was used for the simulation of the proposed absorber. The proposed absorber provides a wide absorption bandwidth of 14.4 GHz over a frequency range of 12.8-27.5 GHz with more than %90 absorp

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 05 2025
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Networks And Systems
Leveraging AI for Disaster Management: A Comprehensive Review of Applications and Challenges
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Communications In Nonlinear Science And Numerical Simulation
Simultaneous determination of time and space-dependent coefficients in a parabolic equation
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Non-linear support vector machine classification models using kernel tricks with applications
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The support vector machine, also known as SVM, is a type of supervised learning model that can be used for classification or regression depending on the datasets. SVM is used to classify data points by determining the best hyperplane between two or more groups. Working with enormous datasets, on the other hand, might result in a variety of issues, including inefficient accuracy and time-consuming. SVM was updated in this research by applying some non-linear kernel transformations, which are: linear, polynomial, radial basis, and multi-layer kernels. The non-linear SVM classification model was illustrated and summarized in an algorithm using kernel tricks. The proposed method was examined using three simulation datasets with different sample

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Ssrn Electronic Journal
Developing a Predictive Model and Multi-Objective Optimization of a Photovoltaic/Thermal System Based on Energy and Exergy Analysis Using Response Surface Methodology
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