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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Kufa For Chemical Sciences
Review Article: Miscellaneous Azo Dyes: A Review on Recent Advancements and Applications
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The dyes Azo have a lengthy history and are a vital part of our daily lives. There are numerous potentials uses for these substances and their derivatives in various industries and environmental and biological research. In this study conversion of various azo compounds into other derivatives, complexes, and polymers was accomplished. This review included examining the chemistry reactions, synthesis, and applications of azo dye ligands and their complexes, mentioned spectral, analytical, thermal, and morphology methods of investigation, and confirmed by mass fragment mechanisms for some azo dyes and metal complexes. One of the aims of this review is to explain the role of these azo dye derivatives and the effect of metal complexes on leather

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Ultra-broadband Thin Metamaterial Absorber for Ku and K Bands Applications
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In this paper, a design of the broadband thin metamaterial absorber (MMA) is presented. Compared with the previously reported metamaterial absorbers, the proposed structure provides a wide bandwidth with a compatible overall size. The designed absorber consists of a combination of octagon disk and split octagon resonator to provide a wide bandwidth over the Ku and K bands' frequency range. Cheap FR-4 material is chosen to be a substate of the proposed absorber with 1.6 thicknesses and 6.5×6.5 overall unit cell size. CST Studio Suite was used for the simulation of the proposed absorber. The proposed absorber provides a wide absorption bandwidth of 14.4 GHz over a frequency range of 12.8-27.5 GHz with more than %90 absorp

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 05 2025
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Networks And Systems
Leveraging AI for Disaster Management: A Comprehensive Review of Applications and Challenges
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Communications In Nonlinear Science And Numerical Simulation
Simultaneous determination of time and space-dependent coefficients in a parabolic equation
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Non-linear support vector machine classification models using kernel tricks with applications
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The support vector machine, also known as SVM, is a type of supervised learning model that can be used for classification or regression depending on the datasets. SVM is used to classify data points by determining the best hyperplane between two or more groups. Working with enormous datasets, on the other hand, might result in a variety of issues, including inefficient accuracy and time-consuming. SVM was updated in this research by applying some non-linear kernel transformations, which are: linear, polynomial, radial basis, and multi-layer kernels. The non-linear SVM classification model was illustrated and summarized in an algorithm using kernel tricks. The proposed method was examined using three simulation datasets with different sample

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية للبنات/ الجامعة العراقية
HURIER Model as a Model in Language Teaching
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Between the 1980s and 1990s, the HURIER model was developed by Brownell and consist of six interrelated components, which are represented in these acronyms (Hearing, Understanding, Remembering, Interpreting, Evaluating, and Responding). This model can be considered as a framework of the behavioral approach which can be used to improve students’ listening performance and to foster a positive attitude toward listening. Many learners find it challenging to improve their listening skills when learning a second or foreign language because it requires the integration of both listening and speaking. Consequently, enhancing this skill will help students improve other language skills, including reading, speaking, and writing. The HURI

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Ssrn Electronic Journal
Developing a Predictive Model and Multi-Objective Optimization of a Photovoltaic/Thermal System Based on Energy and Exergy Analysis Using Response Surface Methodology
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Yearly Energy, Exergy, and Environmental (3E) Analyses of A Photovoltaic Thermal Module and Solar Thermal Collector in Series
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The annual performance of a hybrid system of a flat plate photovoltaic thermal system and a solar thermal collector (PVT/ST) is numerically analyzed from the energy, exergy, and environmental (CO2 reduction) viewpoints. This system can produce electricity and thermal power simultaneously, with higher thermal power and exergy compared to conventional photovoltaic thermal systems. For this purpose, a 3D transient numerical model is developed for investigating the system's performance in four main steps: (1) investigating the effects of the mass flow rate of the working fluid (20 to 50 kg/h) on the temperature behavior and thermodynamic performance of the system, (2) studying the impacts of using glass covers on the different parts of the s

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of a Training Program to Develop the Skill of Organizing Time for the Kindergarten Department Students
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The current research aims to identify the time-management skills based on the post-test of the experimental group as well as to examine the effect of a training program on developing the skills of managing time among the study sample. To achieve the research objectives, the researcher designed a scale of time management skill included (30) paragraphs. The research reached that the training program is significantly effective in managing and organizing time. There are statistically significant differences in pre-posttest between the experimental and control groups.

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