Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat
... Show MoreEndometriosis is a painful disease that affects around 5% of women of reproductive age. In endometriosis, ectopic endometrial cells or seeded endometrial debris grow in abnormal locations including the peritoneal cavity. Common manifestations of endometriosis include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain and often infertility and symptomatic relief or surgical removal are mainstays of treatment. Endometriosis both promotes and responds to estrogen imbalance, leading to intestinal bacterial estrobolome dysregulation and a subsequent induction of inflammation.
In the current study, we investigated the linkage be
A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.
In this paper, we have investigated some of the most recent energy efficient routing protocols for wireless body area networks. This technology has seen advancements in recent times where wireless sensors are injected in the human body to sense and measure body parameters like temperature, heartbeat and glucose level. These tiny wireless sensors gather body data information and send it over a wireless network to the base station. The data measurements are examined by the doctor or physician and the suitable cure is suggested. The whole communication is done through routing protocols in a network environment. Routing protocol consumes energy while helping non-stop communic
... Show MoreMannich base is a versatile compound that can be easily modified to introduce different functional groups, allowing for the creation diverse selection of items with varying features. Additionally, the Mannich reaction is a valuable tool in organic synthesis, due to the fact it provides an effortless and efficient approach for synthesizing C-N bonds. Overall, The Mannich base and even its derivatives are essential in many aspects of chemistry and its complexes are in the pharmaceutical industry. Studies have revealed that it shows good anti-cancer, anti-mycobacterial, remarkable anti-HIV, anti-tubercular, anti-convulsant, anti-fungal, antiviral, antitumor, cytotoxic activities and in industrial applications such as in the creation of polymer
... Show MoreAs they include both nucleophilic and electrophilic moieties on the same skeleton, enaminones are an important subclass of chemical compounds that contain conjugated NC=CC=O fragments. These active sites aid in the production of organic molecules containing linear or cyclic heteroatoms. Enaminones and the chemica1 compounds produced from them are both biologically active against the most dangerous bacteria. As a result, they have been utilized as starting materials for the synthesis of anti-inf1ammatory, antibacteria1, anticonvulsant, anticancer, anti-urease, anti-malaria1, optically luminescent, corrosion inhibition, and antitumor agents. Their synthesis has usually a terrific deal of interest and a plethora of synthetic paths have been na
... Show MoreRare earth metal oxides (REMOs) have gained considerable attention in recent years owing to their distinctive properties and potential applications in electronic devices and catalysts. Particularly, cerium dioxide (CeO2), also known as ceria, has emerged as an interesting material in a wide variety of industrial, technological, and medical applications. Ceria can be synthesized with various morphologies, including rods, cubes, wires, tubes, and spheres. This comprehensive review offers valuable perceptions into the crystal structure, fundamental properties, and reaction mechanisms that govern the well-established surface-assisted reactions over ceria. The activity, selectivity, and stability of ceria, either as a stand-alone catalyst or as
... Show MoreRare earth metal oxides (REMOs) have gained considerable attention in recent years owing to their distinctive properties and potential applications in electronic devices and catalysts. Particularly, cerium dioxide (CeO2), also known as ceria, has emerged as an interesting material in a wide variety of industrial, technological, and medical applications. Ceria can be synthesized with various morphologies, including rods, cubes, wires, tubes, and spheres. This comprehensive review offers valuable perceptions into the crystal structure, fundamental properties, and reaction mechanisms that govern the well-established surface-assisted reactions over ceria. The activity, selectivity, and stability of ceria, either as a stand-alone catalyst or as
... Show MoreThe educational function of television is one of the basic functions in light of the technical development that included the specialized satellite channels in all its fields, including the educational field, as its role became parallel to the role of educational institutions. These studies are among the descriptive studies in terms of the type of study methodology that describes the phenomenon, interprets its and extract the results and relationships between the variables. The study sample was multistage (random and intentional) included the students of the sixth academic and literary preparatory stage in the city of Baghdad.
The study problem was summarized by the following main question:
( What are the motives for the exposure of