Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The dual nature of asphalt binder necessitates improvements to mitigate rutting and fatigue since it performs as an elastic material under the regime of rapid loading or cold temperatures and as a viscous fluid at elevated temperatures. The present investigation assesses the effectiveness of Nano Alumina (NA), Nano Silica (NS), and Nano Titanium Dioxide (NT) at weight percentages of 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8% in asphalt cement to enhance both asphalt binder and mixture performance. Binder evaluations include tests for consistency, thermal susceptibility, aging, and workability, while mixture assessments focus on Marshall properties, moisture susceptibility, resilient modulus, permanent deformation, and fatigue characteristics. NS notably im
... Show MoreThe dual nature of asphalt binder necessitates improvements to mitigate rutting and fatigue since it performs as an elastic material under the regime of rapid loading or cold temperatures and as a viscous fluid at elevated temperatures. The present investigation assesses the effectiveness of Nano Alumina (NA), Nano Silica (NS), and Nano Titanium Dioxide (NT) at weight percentages of 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8% in asphalt cement to enhance both asphalt binder and mixture performance. Binder evaluations include tests for consistency, thermal susceptibility, aging, and workability, while mixture assessments focus on Marshall properties, moisture susceptibility, resilient modulus, permanent deformation, and fatigue characteristics. NS notably im
... Show MoreABSTRACT:
Microencapsulation is used to modify and retard drug release as well as to overcome the unpleasant effect
(gastrointestinal disturbances) which are associated with repeated and overdose of ibuprofen per day.
So that, a newly developed method of microencapsulation was utilized (a modified organic method) through a
modification of aqueous colloidal polymer dispersion method using ethylcellulose and sodium alginate coating materials to
prepare a sustained release ibuprofen microcapsules.
The effect of core : wall ratio on the percent yield and encapsulation efficiency of prepared microcapsules was low, whereas
, the release of drug from prepared microcapsules was affected by core: wall ratio ,proportion of coa
The Hopfield network is one of the easiest types, and its architecture is such that each neuron in the network connects to the other, thus called a fully connected neural network. In addition, this type is considered auto-associative memory, because the network returns the pattern immediately upon recognition, this network has many limitations, including memory capacity, discrepancy, orthogonally between patterns, weight symmetry, and local minimum. This paper proposes a new strategy for designing Hopfield based on XOR operation; A new strategy is proposed to solve these limitations by suggesting a new algorithm in the Hopfield network design, this strategy will increase the performance of Hopfield by modifying the architecture of t
... Show MoreIn this study, a one-dimensional model represented by Butler-Volmer-Monod (BVM) model was proposed to compute the anode overpotential and current density in a mediator-less MFC system. The system was fueled with various organic loadings of real field petroleum refinery oily sludge to optimize the favorable organic loading for biomass to operate the suggested system. The increase in each organic loading showed higher resistance to electrons transport to the anode represented by ohmic loss. On the contrary, both activation and mass transfer losses exhibited a noticeable decrement upon the increased organic loadings. However, current density was improved throughout all increased loads achieving a maximum current density of 5.2 A/m3
... Show MoreIonic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have been found to be highly effective as electrolytes in TiO2 NTAs-graphite cells when combined with additives that enhance conductivity by reducing the viscosity of these liquids. The presence of CaCl2.6H2O: Acetamide DES with DI water as an additive resulted in a cell voltage of 1.31V and an internal resistance of 19 ohm. This can be attributed to the concentration and quality of the ionic species. The cells exhibited an interesting response to the AlCl3-chloroacetamide IL with dichloromethane DCM as an additive, with a cell voltage of 1.81V and an internal resistance of 5.0 ohm. Once again, this is influenced by the quality and concentration of the ionic species. Furthermore,
... Show MoreTo maintain the security and integrity of data, with the growth of the Internet and the increasing prevalence of transmission channels, it is necessary to strengthen security and develop several algorithms. The substitution scheme is the Playfair cipher. The traditional Playfair scheme uses a small 5*5 matrix containing only uppercase letters, making it vulnerable to hackers and cryptanalysis. In this study, a new encryption and decryption approach is proposed to enhance the resistance of the Playfair cipher. For this purpose, the development of symmetric cryptography based on shared secrets is desired. The proposed Playfair method uses a 5*5 keyword matrix for English and a 6*6 keyword matrix for Arabic to encrypt the alphabets of
... Show MoreAn integrated GIS-VBA (Geographical Information System – Visual Basic for Application), model is developed for selecting an optimum water harvesting dam location among an available locations in a watershed. The proposed model allows quick and precise estimation of an adopted weighted objective function for each selected location. In addition to that for each location, a different dam height is used as a nominee for optimum selection. The VBA model includes an optimization model with a weighted objective function that includes beneficiary items (positive) , such as the available storage , the dam height allowed by the site as an indicator for the potential of hydroelectric power generation , the rainfall rate as a source of water . In a
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