Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Abstract:
This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
... Show MoreThis research proposes the application of the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms to enhance estimates generated by the Fama-MacBeth model and compares their performance in this context for the first time. To specifically improve the dragonfly algorithm's effectiveness, three parameter tuning approaches are investigated: manual parameter tuning (MPT), adaptive tuning by methodology (ATY), and a novel technique called adaptive tuning by performance (APT). Additionally, the study evaluates the estimation performance using kernel weighted regression (KWR) and explores how the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms can be employed to enhance KWR. All methods are tested using data from the Iraq Stock Exchange, based on the Fama-French three-f
... Show MoreIn this paper, a modified derivation has been introduced to analyze the construction of C-space. The profit from using C-space is to make the process of path planning more safety and easer. After getting the C-space construction and map for two-link planar robot arm, which include all the possible situations of collision between robot parts and obstacle(s), the A* algorithm, which is usually used to find a heuristic path on Cartesian W-space, has been used to find a heuristic path on C-space map. Several modifications are needed to apply the methodology for a manipulator with degrees of freedom more than two. The results of C-space map, which are derived by the modified analysis, prove the accuracy of the overall C-space mapping and cons
... Show MoreThe study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.
The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st
... Show MoreTo maintain the security and integrity of data, with the growth of the Internet and the increasing prevalence of transmission channels, it is necessary to strengthen security and develop several algorithms. The substitution scheme is the Playfair cipher. The traditional Playfair scheme uses a small 5*5 matrix containing only uppercase letters, making it vulnerable to hackers and cryptanalysis. In this study, a new encryption and decryption approach is proposed to enhance the resistance of the Playfair cipher. For this purpose, the development of symmetric cryptography based on shared secrets is desired. The proposed Playfair method uses a 5*5 keyword matrix for English and a 6*6 keyword matrix for Arabic to encrypt the alphabets of
... Show MoreIn this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.
The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu
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