There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
A3D geological model was constructed for Al-Sadi reservoir/ Halfaya Oil Field which is discovered in 1976 and located 35 km from Amara city, southern of Iraq towards the Iraqi/ Iranian borders.
Petrel 2014 was used to build the geological model. This model was created depending on the available information about the reservoir under study such as 2D seismic map, top and bottom of wells, geological data & well log analysis (CPI). However, the reservoir was sub-divided into 132x117x80 grid cells in the X, Y&Z directions respectively, in order to well represent the entire Al-Sadi reservoir.
Well log interpretation (CPI) and core data for the existing 6 wells were the basis of the petrophysical model (
... Show MoreThe ligand 4-amino-N-(5-methylisoxazole-3-yl)-benzene-sulfonamide(L1) (as a chelating ligand) was treated with Pd(II),Pt (IV) and Au(III) ions in alcoholic medium in order to prepare a series of new metal complexes. Mixed ligand complexes of this primary ligand were prepared in alcoholic medium in presence of the co-ligand 4,4'-dimethyl-2,2'-bipyridyl(L2) with Cu(II) ,Pd(II) and Au(III) ions. The complexes were characterized in solid state using flame atomic absorption, elemental analysis C.H.N.S, FT-IR, UV-Vis Spectroscopy, conductivity and magnetic susceptibility measurements. The nature of some complexes formed in ethanolic solution has been studied following the molar ratio method, also stability constant was studied and the complexes f
... Show MoreSulphated zirconia (SZ) is one of the most important solid acid catalysts was synthesize at different operating conditions, different calcination temperature and sulfonating time has been used. The prepared catalyst was distinguished by X-ray Diffraction (XRD), particle size and morphology of catalyst were checked by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) respectively, in addition to analysis by (DTA) Differential thermally and Energy Dispersive X-Ray (EDX). Finally, the N2 adsorption-desorption was used to measure the surface area (BET) and pore volume. High degree of tetragonal crystallinity was obtained 90 %, and surface area of 169 m2/g and pore volume of 0.39 cm3g-1 at 600°C calcination temperature for 3
... Show MoreBackground: Obesity represents a clear and
present danger to the health of children and
adolescents. Its prevalence among American
youth has doubled in the past 3 decades, and
there are now more overweight and obese
adults in the United States than adults of
normal weight.
Objectives of the study:
1- Finding whether screen watching among
adolescents has an effect on increasing
prevalence overweight and obesity.
2- The effect of other variables like physical
activity, eating in front of screen, eating under
stress on obesity and overweight among the
subjects sample.
Patients &Methods: During 3 months period a
cross sectional survey was conducted on 4
high schools at Baghdad with total
The objective of drilling parameters optimization in Majnoon oilfield is to arrive for a methodology that considers the past drilling data for five directional wells at 35 degree of inclination as a baseline for new wells to be drilled. Also, to predicts drilling performance by selecting the applied drilling parameters generated the highest rate of penetration (ROP) at each section. The focal point of the optimization process is to reduce drilling time and associated cost per each well. The results of this study show that the maximum ROP could not be achieved without sufficient flow rate to cool and clean the bit in clay intervals (36" and 24") hole sections. Although the influence of combination of Weight on Bit (WOB), Round per minute
... Show MoreThe gene expression of the most important structural genes ica A and D of biofilm, sarA, and sigB regulatory genes of some methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates were examined using the real-time polymerase chain reaction after 24 hours of growth. The results revealed that the isolates with strong biofilm production had the highest gene expression of the structural icaA and D genes. Whereas the isolates that showed moderate and weak biofilm production, recorded the lowest gene expression. The results of the regulatory genes sarA, and sigB fluctuated among all MRSA isolates. Isolate No. 64 recorded the highest gene expression
... Show MoreThe oscillation property of the second order half linear dynamic equation was studied, some sufficient conditions were obtained to ensure the oscillation of all solutions of the equation. The results are supported by illustrative examples.
This paper aims to introduce a concept of an equilibrium point of a dynamical system which will call it almost global asymptotically stable. We also propose and analyze a prey-predator model with a suggested function growth in prey species. Firstly the existence and local stability of all its equilibria are studied. After that the model is extended to an optimal control problem to obtain an optimal harvesting strategy. The discrete time version of Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied to solve the optimality problem. The characterization of the optimal harvesting variable and the adjoint variables are derived. Finally these theoretical results are demonstrated with numerical simulations.
This research aims to study the impact of strategic information systems on the development of intellectual capital in the Public Shareholding Electricity Distribution Company in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. To achieve the objectives of the study, a questionnaire was developed for the purpose of data collection, as the number of valid questionnaires for analysis was about (135), and SPSS and AMOS 0.26 software was used to analyze the collected data. The study found out that the respondents' perceptions of the level of importance of strategic information systems and the level of importance of intellectual capital were high, and that the relational capital has ranked as first, followed by structural capital, and h
... Show MoreIt is well known that petroleum refineries are considered the largest generator of oily sludge which may cause serious threats to the environment if disposed of without treatment. Throughout the present research, it can be said that a hybrid process including ultrasonic treatment coupled with froth floatation has been shown as a green efficient treatment of oily sludge waste from the bottom of crude oil tanks in Al-Daura refinery and able to get high yield of base oil recovery which is 65% at the optimum operating conditions (treatment time = 30 min, ultrasonic wave amplitude = 60 micron, and (solvent: oily sludge) ratio = 4). Experimental results showed that 83% of the solvent used was recovered meanwhile the main water
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