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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
NORM in Markazia Degasing Station within North Rumaila Oilfield- Southern Iraq
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Concentration of natural occurring radioactive material (NORM) in Markazia Degasing Station in North Rumaila oilfield (NDS) was measured in this study. Then, radiological assessment due to existing of NORM in different samples including soil, sludge, scale, oil, and water collected from different stages of oil and gas production NDS was done. Radioactivity concentration of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 were measured using gamma spectrometry system based on HPGe detector with efficiency of 30%. The results show that some locations within NDS are contaminated with NORM. The activity in Bq/kg of Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 range between 15.19 in oil to 68.73 in sludge, 8.5 in oil to 23.45 in sludge and 80.23 in oil to 319.73 in saline water samples r

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
SIMULATION AND MODELING OF HYDRO CRACKING REACTR TO REDUCE POLLUTION CAUSED BY REFINERIES: SIMULATION AND MODELING OF HYDRO CRACKING REACTR TO REDUCE POLLUTION CAUSED BY REFINERIES
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Hydro cracking of heavy oil is used in refinery to produce invaluable products. In this research, a model of hydro cracking reactor has been used to study the behavior of heavy oil in hydro cracking under the conditions recommended by literature in terms lumping of feed and products. The lumping scheme is based on five lumps include: heavy oil, vacuum oil, distillates, naphtha and gases. The first order kinetics was assumed for the conversion in the model and the system is modeled as an isothermal tubular reactor. MATLAB 6.1 was used to solve the model for a five lump scheme for different values of feed velocity, and temperature.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
SYNTHESIS AND CHARACTERIZATION OF NEW DEMULSIFIER FROM NATURAL AND SYNTHETIC POLYMER: SYNTHESIS AND CHARACTERIZATION OF NEW DEMULSIFIER FROM NATURAL AND SYNTHETIC POLYMER
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ABSTRACT

This research included the preparation and characterization of new demulsifies from natural and synthetic polymers of chitosan and polyvinyl alcohol that are environmentally friendly and at the same time have high efficacy comparable to emulsifiers. imported foreign. The prepared compounds were examined using infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and all the spectral signals of the polymers were in good agreement with the chemical composition of the polymers. And the melting and decomposition that occur on polymers at high temperatures. The effect of the length and type of side chain in the compositions of polymers on the process of water separation of oil emulsions w

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Investigation, Error Analysis and Application of Joint Quadrature Scheme in Physical Sciences
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In this work, a joint quadrature for numerical solution of the double integral is presented. This method is based on combining two rules of the same precision level to form a higher level of precision. Numerical results of the present method with a lower level of precision are presented and compared with those performed by the existing high-precision Gauss-Legendre five-point rule in two variables, which has the same functional evaluation. The efficiency of the proposed method is justified with numerical examples. From an application point of view, the determination of the center of gravity is a special consideration for the present scheme. Convergence analysis is demonstrated to validate the current method.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of Co-Polymer (Styrene / Allyl 2,3,4,6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside) and Studying some of its thermal properties
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In this research, a Co-polymer (Styrene / Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside) was synthesized from glucose in four steps using Addition Polymerization according to the radical mechanism using Benzoyl Peroxide (BP) as initiator. Initially, Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside monomer was prepared in three steps and the reaction was followed by (HPLC, FT-IR, TLC), in the fourth step the monomer was polymerized with Styrene and the structure was determined by FT-IR and NMR spectroscopy. The reaction conditions (temperature, reaction time, material ratios) were also studied to obtain the highest yield, the relative, specific and reduced viscosity of the prepared polymer was determined, from which the viscosity ave

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cytogenetic Investigations and Y-Chromosome Microdeletion Screening in some Infertile Kurdish males In Erbil province/ Iraq
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Infertility is a disease of the reproductive system defined by the failure to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sexual intercourse. Worldwide, infertility affects approximately 15% of all couples trying to conceive. Male infertility is responsible for about 50% of the infertility cases. Chromosomal abnormalities and Y-chromosome microdeletions are the most common genetic causes of male infertility. Klinefelter syndrome (KS) is the most prevalent factor of the chromosomal abnormality in the infertile male. Azoospermia Factor (AZF) microdeletions located on the Y chromosome are one of the recurrent genetic cause of male infertility. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of chromosomal anoma

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Expression of Different Micrornas in Iraqi Patients with Childhood Acute Leukemia and Their Association to C/EBP-Î’ Serum Level
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Leukemia is the most common cancer in children which causes death despite the high survival rate. Therefore,  new methods are required to find a suitable therapy. A small RNA called microRNAs (miRNAs) is used as a biomarker for cancer diagnosis and early prognostic evaluation. Expression levels of three miRNAs from the 3' arm (miR-142-3p, miR-223-3p and miR-146-3p) were detected in serum samples from 30 acute leukemic children and from 30 healthy individuals by using qPCR. The miR-142-3p and miR-146-3p profiles were significantly downregulated (P=0.0010 and 0.0012, respectively), while miR-223 was found to be significantly upregulated (P= 0.0044) in the pateints. Serum level of C/EBP-β

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Single Nucleotide Polymorphism of Padi4 Gene )Rs11203367( in A Sample of Rheumatoid Arthritis Iraqi Patients
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     Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an inflamed chronic autoimmune disease in which genetics and environment are the most common causative factors. Peptidyl arginine deiminase type IV (PADI4) is an enzyme responsible for the posttranslational conversion of arginine residues into citrulline. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is a specific technique was used to determine gene polymorphism. One hundred twenty three patients molecularly confirmed with RA and sixty healthy control subjects were recruited. By applying the logistic regression analysis, some alleles and genotypes were associated with susceptibility to RA. Under the allelic model, C allele frequency was significantly increased in RA patients compared

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Detection of Listeria monocytogenes in Several Types of Frozen Meat in Baghdad city
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Detection of pathogenic bacteria, such as Listeria  monocytogenes, in food is crucial for safeguarding public health in Iraq.  Forty five samples of frozen meat (15 samples of each of minced red meat, chicken, and fish) were collected from different markets in Baghdad city. Molecular (RT-PCR) and culturing (conventional microbiological examination) methods were used to determine the level of contamination of L. monocytogenes in these types of meat.

For the culturing method, TSYEB broth was used as an enrichment medium, whereas BALCAM medium (HiMedia) with the listeria selective supplement FD061 was used as a selective medium, for the isolation and identification of this bacterium. The isolates were con

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Publication Date
Wed May 17 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effect of Tool Path Strategy on Twist Behavior In Single Point Incremental Sheet Metal Forming
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In Incremental sheet metal forming process, one important step is to produce tool path, an
accurate tool path is one of the main challenge of incremental sheet metal forming
process. Various factors should be considered prior to generation of the tool path i.e.
mechanical properties of sheet metal, the holding mechanism, tool speed, feed rate and
tool size. In this work investigation studies have been carried out to find the different tool
path strategies to control the twist effect in the final product manufactured by single point
incremental sheet metal forming (SPIF), an adaptive tool path strategy was proposed and
examined for several Aluminum conical models. The comparison of the proposed tool path with t

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