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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 10 2023
Journal Name
Energies
Well Placement Optimization through the Triple-Completion Gas and Downhole Water Sink-Assisted Gravity Drainage (TC-GDWS-AGD) EOR Process
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Gas and downhole water sink-assisted gravity drainage (GDWS-AGD) is a new process of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in oil reservoirs underlain by large bottom aquifers. The process is capital intensive as it requires the construction of dual-completed wells for oil production and water drainage and additional multiple vertical gas-injection wells. The costs could be substantially reduced by eliminating the gas-injection wells and using triple-completed multi-functional wells. These wells are dubbed triple-completion-GDWS-AGD (TC-GDWS-AGD). In this work, we design and optimize the TC-GDWS-AGD oil recovery process in a fictitious oil reservoir (Punq-S3) that emulates a real North Sea oil field. The design aims at maximum oil recovery us

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Mathematical Modelling of Gene Regulatory Networks
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    This research includes the use of an artificial intelligence algorithm, which is one of the algorithms of biological systems which is the algorithm of genetic regulatory networks (GRNs), which is a dynamic system for a group of variables representing space within time. To construct this biological system, we use (ODEs) and to analyze the stationarity of the model we use Euler's method. And through the factors that affect the process of gene expression in terms of inhibition and activation of the transcription process on DNA, we will use TF transcription factors. The current research aims to use the latest methods of the artificial intelligence algorithm. To apply Gene Regulation Networks (GRNs), we used a progr

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
New Operational Matrices of Seventh Degree Orthonormal Bernstein Polynomials
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Based on analyzing the properties of Bernstein polynomials, the extended orthonormal Bernstein polynomials, defined on the interval [0, 1] for n=7 is achieved. Another method for computing operational matrices of derivative and integration D_b and R_(n+1)^B respectively is presented. Also the result of the proposed method is compared with true answers to show the convergence and advantages of the new method.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
American Rock Mechanics Association
Using an Analytical Model to Predict Collapse Volume During Drilling: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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Zubair Formation is one of the richest petroleum systems in Southern Iraq. This formation is composed mainly of sandstones interbedded with shale sequences, with minor streaks of limestone and siltstone. Borehole collapse is one of the most critical challenges that continuously appear in drilling and production operations. Problems associated with borehole collapse, such as tight hole while tripping, stuck pipe and logging tools, hole enlargement, poor log quality, and poor primary cement jobs, are the cause of the majority of the nonproductive time (NPT) in the Zubair reservoir developments. Several studies released models predicting the onset of borehole collapse and the amount of enlargement of the wellbore cross-section. However, assump

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Publication Date
Mon May 15 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Formation of Binuclear Metal Complexes with Multidentate Schiff-base Oxime Ligand: Synthesis and Spectral Investigation
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The new polydentate Schiff-base oxime  (1E,1`E)-2hydroxy-3-((E)-(2-((E)-2hydrxy3-((E)-(hydroxyimino)methyl)-5-methylbenzyldeneamino)ethylimino)methyl)-5methylbenzaldehyde oxime H4L and its binuclear metal complexes with Mn(II), Fe(II), Co(II) and Cu(II) are reported. The reaction of 2,6 diformyl–4–methyl phenol with hydroxyl amine hydrochloride in mole ratios of 1:1 gave the precursor (E)-2-hydroxy-3((hydroxyimino)methyl)-5-methylbenzaldehyde. Condensation reaction of precursor with ethylenediamine in mole ratios of 2:1 gave the new N4O2 Schiff-base oxime ligand H4L. Upon complex formation, the ligand behaves as a tribasic hexadantate species.  The mode of bonding and overall geometry of the complexes were determi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Spe/aapg/seg Asia Pacific Unconventional Resources Technology Conference
Optimizing the dispersion of coal fines using Sodium Dodecyl Benzene Sulfonate
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Coal fines are highly prone to be generated in all stages of Coal Seam Gas (CSG) production and development. These detached fines tend to aggregate, contributing to pore throat blockage and permeability reduction. Thus, this work explores the dispersion stability of coal fines in CSG reservoirs and proposes a new additive to be used in the formulation of the hydraulic fracturing fluid to keep the fines dispersed in the fluid. In this work, bituminous coal fines were tested in various suspensions in order to study their dispersion stability. The aggregation behavior of coal fines (dispersed phase) was analyzed in different dispersion mediums, including deionized-water, low and high sodium chloride solutions. Furthermore, the effect of Sodium

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Scopus (12)
Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Nov 11 2019
Journal Name
Spe
Modeling Rate of Penetration using Artificial Intelligent System and Multiple Regression Analysis
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Abstract<p>Over the years, the prediction of penetration rate (ROP) has played a key rule for drilling engineers due it is effect on the optimization of various parameters that related to substantial cost saving. Many researchers have continually worked to optimize penetration rate. A major issue with most published studies is that there is no simple model currently available to guarantee the ROP prediction.</p><p>The main objective of this study is to further improve ROP prediction using two predictive methods, multiple regression analysis (MRA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). A field case in SE Iraq was conducted to predict the ROP from a large number of parame</p> ... Show More
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Crossref (6)
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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة مقدرات بيز لدالة المعولية لتوزيع باريتو من النوع الاول باستعمال دوال معلوماتية مضاعفة مختلفة
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The comparison of double informative priors which are assumed for the reliability function of Pareto type I distribution. To estimate the reliability function of Pareto type I distribution by using Bayes estimation, will be  used two different kind of information in the Bayes estimation; two different priors have been selected for the parameter of Pareto  type I distribution . Assuming distribution of three double prior’s chi- gamma squared distribution, gamma - erlang distribution, and erlang- exponential distribution as double priors. The results of the derivaties of these estimators under the squared error loss function with two different double priors. Using the simulation technique, to compare the performance for

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Six-coordinate oxime-imine cobalt(III) complexes with amino acid co-ligands; synthesis and characterisation
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In this publication, several six coordinate Co(III)-complexes are reported. The reaction of 2,3-butanedione monoxime with ethylenediamine or o-phenylenediamine in mole ratios of 2:1 gave the tetradentate imine-oxime ligands diaminoethane-N,N`-bis(2-butylidine-3-onedioxime) H2L1 and o-phenylenediamine-N,N`-bis(2-butylidine-3-onedioxime), respectively. The reaction of H2L1 and H2L2 with Co(NO3)2, and the amino acid co-ligands (glycine or serine) resulted in the formation of the required complexes. Upon complex formation, the ligands behave as a neutral tetradantate species, while the amino acid co-ligand acts as a monobasic species. The mode of bonding and overall geometry of the complexes were determined through physico-chemical and spectro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reflection of the application TD-ABC approach on profits persistence Applied study in the General State of Hydraulic Industries Factory of Plastic*
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The interest of many companies has become dealing with the tools and methods that reduce the costs as one of the most important factors of successful companies, and became the subject of the attention of many economic units because of the impact on the profits of company, and since the nineties of the last century the researchers and writers gave great attention to this subject, especially in light of the large competition and rapid developments in cost management techniques, as well as the wide and significant change in production methods that have been directed towards achieving customer satisfaction, all this and more driven by economic units in all sectors whether it is service or productivity to find methods that would reduc

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