There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In this paper, variable gain nonlinear PD and PI fuzzy logic controllers are designed and the effect of the variable gain characteristic of these controllers is analyzed to show its contribution in enhancing the performance of the closed loop system over a conventional linear PID controller. Simulation results and time domain performance characteristics show how these fuzzy controllers outperform the conventional PID controller when used to control a nonlinear plant and a plant that has time delay.
An NH3 gas sensor was prepared from nanocomposite films of indium oxide-copper oxide mixtures with ratios of 0 , 10 , and 20 Vol % of copper oxide. The films were deposited on a glass substrate using chemical spray pyrolysis method (CSP) at 400oC. The structural properties were studied by using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and atomic force microscopy ( AFM). The structural results showed that the prepared thin films are polycrystalline, with nano grain size. By mixing copper oxide with indium oxide, the grain size of the prepared thin films was decreased and the surface roughness was increased. The UV-Visible spectrometer analysis showed that the prepared thin films have high transmittance.
... Show MoreCarbon dioxide (CO2) flooding is an EOR technique in which carbon dioxide is injected into the reservoir to improve the oil recovery. The reservoir oil and rock properties are altered when carbon dioxide interacts with the oil and rock present in the reservoir. Carbon dioxide injection alters the oil and rock properties by causing reduction in oil viscosity, oil swelling and wettability alteration of the rock. This paper will present a proposal to study the wettability alteration in carbonate formations during miscible carbon dioxide flooding. In miscible carbon dioxide flooding, the injection pressure of carbon dioxide would be kept above the minimum miscibility pressure. Thus carbon dioxide is miscible with the oil present in the reservoi
... Show MoreThis study aims to overcome the unexpected hydrocarbon non-potentiality detected in the upper Alam El-Bueib (I to IIIE) and justify the hydrocarbon accumulation within Alam El-Bueib (IIIG) at the Emry oil field, also, it is important to highlight the importance of fault seal analysis and the impact of Matruh canyon as a seal. Seismic interpretation and 3D structural framework are carried out using the fault-seal analysis technique for fault no.1 (F1). To assess the fault zone's capacity to be defined as either seal or leakage. Litho-facies juxtaposition diagram (Allan diagram) and Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR) were generated. It is concluded that the possible reason for the dry reservoir of the upper part of Alam El Bueib (Alam El Bue
... Show MoreMultilayer reservoirs are currently modeled as a single zone system by averaging the reservoir parameters associated with each reservoir zone. However, this type of modeling is rarely accurate because a single zone system does not account for the fact that each zone's pressure decreases independently. Pressure drop for each zone has an effect on the total output and would result in inter-flow and the premature depletion of one of the zones. Understanding reservoir performance requires a precise estimation of each layer's permeability and skin factor. The Multilayer Transient Analysis is a well-testing technique designed to determine formation properties in more than one layer, and its effectiveness over the past two decades has been
... Show MoreThe field experiment was conducted at botanical garden of Department of Biology, College of Education for Pure Science/ Ibn-Al-Haitham, University of Baghdad to study the effect of Lepidium sativum leaves extract and pumpkin seeds Cucurbita pepo in two concentrations 10% and 20% on physiological characters ofPimpinella anisum. The results showed that in either concentration plant heights, dry weight, biological yield, economic yield, weight of 100 fruits, harvest index, absolute growth rate (AGR) were all increased and percentage of oil in fruits as compared with control plants
The fouling depositions of crude oil stream were studied theoretically in a shell and tube heat exchanger to investigate the effect of depositions on the heat transfer process. The employed heat exchanger was with steam flowing in the inner tubes and crude oil in the shell at different velocities and bulk temperatures. It is assumed that fouling occurs only on the heated stream side (crude oil). The analysis was carried out for turbulent flow heat transfer conditions with wide range of Reynolds number, bulk temperature and time. Many previously proposed models for fouling resistance were employed to estimate a new model for fouling rate. It is found that the fouling rate and consequently the heat transfer coefficient were affected by Rey
... Show MoreThis Study is conducted to evaluate effects of (leaves, fruits) powder and (oil, alcohol) extract of Coriander (Coriandrum sativum) plant on some biological and physiological aspects of House fly, Musca domestica at laboratory conditions. Result show that these preparations caused biological effects represented in high dead percentage in second instar, fed on different concentrations of food treated with them reached to 27.6, 55.3 at concentration 20% of leaf and fruit powder respectively and 67.3, 77.2% at 10% of oil and alcohol extract of fruit, respectively. Furthermore, study also show reduction in pupation and adults emergence percentage. However, leafs powder had slighter effect than powder and extract of fruit of tested plant. The st
... Show MoreThe present study considers an influence of WS2 nanoparticles lubricants on physical characteristics of wrought Aluminium alloys. It is investigated parameters-performance relationship via tribological pin-on-disc tests, the pin is made of Aluminium alloys and the disk is made of AISI.1045, and the humidity was 70%. Oils with WS2 nanoparticles and without them reveal the loss rate of wear. In this study, the coefficient of friction (CoF) is reduced from 0.27 to 0.22 and the wear rate decreased from 0.128 x 10-6 Nm-1 to 0.107 x 10-6 Nm-1 at a load of 20 N. All worn surfaces were typically three types in wear mechanisms such as adhesive, abrasive, and oxidative wear. In addi
... Show MoreThe L. Cretaceous succession is the main reservoir rock in the south of Iraq. Although the upper Jurassic Sargelu Formation is the main source rock in this area; however, the organic-rich interval within the studied succession, is contribute in these huge accumulations of petroleum. The pyrolysis parameters of the succession; Sulaiy, yamama, Zubair, and Nahr Umr formations showed that the main kerogen type is type III and II with moderate to good HI, which they refer to gas and/or oil prone especially in Zubair, Nahr Umr, and Sulaiy formations. The quantity parameters indicate potential source intervals in respect to (TOC). The maturity parameters suggest the threshold and peak of petroleum generation, which Tmax values ranged around 430
... Show More