The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Dengke Naniura is a traditional food from Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, that is produced through fermenting process, and this food is believed to contain high probiotics. The objective of the current research is to determine the potential of LAB as a probiotic that has been obtained from Dengke Naniura. Dengke Naniura was traditionally prepared from Cyprinus carpio. Four LABs have been successfully isolated from Dengke Naniura, such as D7DA3, D7B3, D7DBF and D7DN3. Those four LAB isolates were identified as Lactobacillus sp. This result has been confirmed by the non-spore forming bacterium, non-motile, and Gram-positive. Also, it has been supported by biochemical test, for the example Voges Proskauer, catalase test, Methyl
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The aim of this research is to identify the effectiveness of thinking skills in developing the life skills of the students of the first Academic year, particularly the differences in life skills according to the variable of study specialization (human-scientific). To achieve the research objectives, the life skills scale was constructed on the classification of (WHO). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined. The validity of the scale, which is the final form of (60) items, was valid for measuring the life skills. The scale was then applied to the research sample of (112) students of the first year of the University of Bisha. The SPSS program processed
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
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Abstract :
Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.
power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring its total capacity as frequency function.
Estimation methods Share with
... Show MoreThis paper aims to propose a hybrid approach of two powerful methods, namely the differential transform and finite difference methods, to obtain the solution of the coupled Whitham-Broer-Kaup-Like equations which arises in shallow-water wave theory. The capability of the method to such problems is verified by taking different parameters and initial conditions. The numerical simulations are depicted in 2D and 3D graphs. It is shown that the used approach returns accurate solutions for this type of problems in comparison with the analytic ones.
Contemporary life is racing against time in its temptations and variables, and it has become shaped and changed in an amazing way in its various aspects and fields. This was facilitated by intellectual and scientific communication between civilizations, and the rapid progression in successive inventions and discoveries in the fields of science and arts of knowledge. This contributed to a great economic and commercial renaissance. Then, these economic developments entered the world into a very strong competition, which forced producers to calculate all production costs, to reach the highest profits by reducing the price of the produced commodity on the one hand, and achieving quality in appearance (especially) on the other hand. Since the ma
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Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show MoreThis research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
... Show MoreThis paper was conducted to identifying the body growth averages for the infants of the age (3-6) months and their relation with brest (natural ) or artificial feeding The results showed that the higher percentage was for the infants with the natural feeding in comparison with those of the artificial or mixed feeding. Also there was a clear increase in the average of the body growth for those with the natural feeding and such results were closer to the standard criterion. While the averages of body growth for those with the artificial or mixed feeding were low. In addition, it was clear that the averages of body growth of the i
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