The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
The aim of this research is to identify the effectiveness of thinking skills in developing the life skills of the students of the first Academic year, particularly the differences in life skills according to the variable of study specialization (human-scientific). To achieve the research objectives, the life skills scale was constructed on the classification of (WHO). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined. The validity of the scale, which is the final form of (60) items, was valid for measuring the life skills. The scale was then applied to the research sample of (112) students of the first year of the University of Bisha. The SPSS program processed
... Show MoreDengke Naniura is a traditional food from Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, that is produced through fermenting process, and this food is believed to contain high probiotics. The objective of the current research is to determine the potential of LAB as a probiotic that has been obtained from Dengke Naniura. Dengke Naniura was traditionally prepared from Cyprinus carpio. Four LABs have been successfully isolated from Dengke Naniura, such as D7DA3, D7B3, D7DBF and D7DN3. Those four LAB isolates were identified as Lactobacillus sp. This result has been confirmed by the non-spore forming bacterium, non-motile, and Gram-positive. Also, it has been supported by biochemical test, for the example Voges Proskauer, catalase test, Methyl
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreThe adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d
... Show MoreThis work studies the role of serum apelin-36 and Glutathione S-transferases (GST) activity in association with the hormonal, metabolic profiles and their link to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in healthy and patients' ladies with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of fifty-four (PCOS) patients and thirty-one healthy woman as a control have been studied. The PCOS patients were subdivided on the basis of body-mass-index (BMI), into 2-subgroups (the first group was obese-PCOS with BMI ≥ 30 and the second group was non-obese PCOS MBI<30). Fasting-insulin-levels and Lipid-profile, Homeostatic-model assessment-of-insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR), follicle-stimulating-hormone (FSH), luteinizing-hormone (LH), testosterone and
... Show MoreThis paper aims to propose a hybrid approach of two powerful methods, namely the differential transform and finite difference methods, to obtain the solution of the coupled Whitham-Broer-Kaup-Like equations which arises in shallow-water wave theory. The capability of the method to such problems is verified by taking different parameters and initial conditions. The numerical simulations are depicted in 2D and 3D graphs. It is shown that the used approach returns accurate solutions for this type of problems in comparison with the analytic ones.
In this paper, we focus on designing feed forward neural network (FFNN) for solving Mixed Volterra – Fredholm Integral Equations (MVFIEs) of second kind in 2–dimensions. in our method, we present a multi – layers model consisting of a hidden layer which has five hidden units (neurons) and one linear output unit. Transfer function (Log – sigmoid) and training algorithm (Levenberg – Marquardt) are used as a sigmoid activation of each unit. A comparison between the results of numerical experiment and the analytic solution of some examples has been carried out in order to justify the efficiency and the accuracy of our method.
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Research problem:
Problem of current research can determine the dimensions to answer the following question: The effect of teaching using the six thinking hats on academic achievement for students in the second grade average in the subject of Family Education. The importance of research: research is gaining importance in terms of:
1. That this research is the first of its kind in the researcher's knowledge _ which deals with the teaching of Family Education by using the six hats, the researcher hopes to fill a gap in the educational field and serve in other studies serve the materials home economics. 2. Keep pace with the new field of modern education and strategies. 3. Highlight on the educational strategy in the field of creative
Abstract
Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
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