The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Feed Forward Back Propagation artificial neural network (ANN) model utilizing the MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox is designed for the prediction of surface roughness of Duplex Stainless Steel during orthogonal turning with uncoated carbide insert tool. Turning experiments were performed at various process conditions (feed rate, cutting speed, and cutting depth). Utilizing the Taguchi experimental design method, an optimum ANN architecture with the Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm was obtained. Parametric research was performed with the optimized ANN architecture to report the impact of every turning parameter on the roughness of the surface. The results suggested that machining at a cutting speed of 355 rpm with a feed rate of 0.07 m
... Show MoreBy driven the moment estimator of ARMA (1, 1) and by using the simulation some important notice are founded, From the more notice conclusions that the relation between the sign and moment estimator for ARMA (1, 1) model that is: when the sign is positive means the root gives invertible model and when the sign is negative means the root gives invertible model. An alternative method has been suggested for ARMA (0, 1) model can be suitable when
Here, we found an estimation of best approximation of unbounded functions which satisfied weighted Lipschitz condition with respect to convex polynomial by means of weighted Totik-Ditzian modulus of continuity
This paper presents the implementation of a complex fractional order proportional integral derivative (CPID) and a real fractional order PID (RPID) controllers. The analysis and design of both controllers were carried out in a previous work done by the author, where the design specifications were classified into easy (case 1) and hard (case 2) design specifications. The main contribution of this paper is combining CRONE approximation and linear phase CRONE approximation to implement the CPID controller. The designed controllers-RPID and CPID-are implemented to control flowing water with low pressure circuit, which is a first order plus dead time system. Simulation results demonstrate that while the implemented RPID controller fails to stabi
... Show MoreThis study aimed at revealing the degree of availability of standards of word problems in mathematics books for the first three grades of the basic stage in Palestine. For this purpose, the researcher prepared an analysis tool and a list of criteria consisting of two areas: linguistic formulation and mathematical content. Every area had seven items. The results of the study showed that the third-grade mathematics book has the highest degree of availability of the standards with 85.75%, and then came the second-grade mathematics book with 83.12%. Finally, the first-grade mathematics book came with 80.13%. In the light of the previous results, the researcher recommended to develop the language of word problems, to take into account their i
... Show MoreIn this research, an experimental study was conducted to high light the impact of the exterior shape of a cylindrical body on the forced and free convection heat transfer coefficients when the body is hold in the entrance of an air duct. The impact of changing the body location within the air duct and the air speed are also demonstrated. The cylinders were manufactured with circular, triangular and square sections of copper for its high thermal conductivity with appropriate dimensions, while maintaining the surface area of all shapes to be the same. Each cylinder was heated to a certain temperature and put inside the duct at certain locations. The temperature of the cylinder was then monitored. The heat transfer coefficient were then cal
... Show MoreMy research tagged [the lights of the statement in the first part of the Koran] came to show that the dear book was developed according to a precise linguistic system is not increased by a word or letter or movement - Aldmh and Kira and the hole - and does not lack anything of it except with the wisdom required by the meanings of the Koranic text or Sura generally . The Koran does not come falsehood from his hands or from behind it is infallible and preserved; because it was revealed by the sage Hamid Hamid ﭽﮗ ﮘ ﮙ ﮚ ﮛ ﮜ ﮝ ﮞ ﭼ [stone]. The Qur'an is safe from any verbal or moral dominance and dominates all the heavenly books and exists at any time and place that speaks the truth ﭽ ﯛ ﯜ ﯝ ﯞ ﯟ ﯹ ﯺﭼ [The
... Show MoreIn this paper, the theoretical cross section in pre-equilibrium nuclear reaction has been studied for the reaction at energy 22.4 MeV. Ericson’s formula of partial level density PLD and their corrections (William’s correction and spin correction) have been substituted in the theoretical cross section and compared with the experimental data for nucleus. It has been found that the theoretical cross section with one-component PLD from Ericson’s formula when doesn’t agree with the experimental value and when . There is little agreement only at the high value of energy range with the experimental cross section. The theoretical cross section that depends on the one-component William's formula and on-component corrected to spi
... Show MoreIn this research، a comparison has been made between the robust estimators of (M) for the Cubic Smoothing Splines technique، to avoid the problem of abnormality in data or contamination of error، and the traditional estimation method of Cubic Smoothing Splines technique by using two criteria of differentiation which are (MADE، WASE) for different sample sizes and disparity levels to estimate the chronologically different coefficients functions for the balanced longitudinal data which are characterized by observations obtained through (n) from the independent subjects، each one of them is measured repeatedly by group of specific time points (m)،since the frequent measurements within the subjects are almost connected an
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