The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
A new efficient Two Derivative Runge-Kutta method (TDRK) of order five is developed for the numerical solution of the special first order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The new method is derived using the property of First Same As Last (FSAL). We analyzed the stability of our method. The numerical results are presented to illustrate the efficiency of the new method in comparison with some well-known RK methods.
This paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient
This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to
... Show MoreNowadays, Wheeled Mobile Robots (WMRs) have found many applications as industry, transportation, inspection, and other fields. Therefore, the trajectory tracking control of the nonholonomic wheeled mobile robots have an important problem. This work focus on the application of model-based on Fractional Order PIaDb (FOPID) controller for trajectory tracking problem. The control algorithm based on the errors in postures of mobile robot which feed to FOPID controller to generate correction signals that transport to torque for each driven wheel, and by means of dynamics model of mobile robot these torques used to compute the linear and angular speed to reach the desired pose. In this work a dynamics model of
... Show MoreThe child spends several hours watching animated films, which affect their behavior negatively and positively. This calls parents to monitor what their children are watching, to show them the serious risks of some violent films, and to direct them toward choosing both positive and educational programs that develop their positive behavior. This study aimed to explore the positive and negative effects of watching animation films as well as to identify the role animation films in increasing the cognitive knowledge of kindergarteners. To do this, the descriptive and analytical methods were used. A questionnaire was adopted as a tool for data collection. A scale of (45) items classified into three categories was applied on the r
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Abstract
The use of modern scientific methods and techniques, is considered important topics to solve many of the problems which face some sector, including industrial, service and health. The researcher always intends to use modern methods characterized by accuracy, clarity and speed to reach the optimal solution and be easy at the same time in terms of understanding and application.
the research presented this comparison between the two methods of solution for linear fractional programming models which are linear transformation for Charnas & Cooper , and denominator function restriction method through applied on the oil heaters and gas cookers plant , where the show after reac
... Show MoreAverage per capita GDP income is an important economic indicator. Economists use this term to determine the amount of progress or decline in the country's economy. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them with each other. Average per capita GDP income was first studied using the Time Series (Box Jenkins method), and the second is linear and non-linear regression; these methods are the most important and most commonly used statistical methods for forecasting because they are flexible and accurate in practice. The comparison is made to determine the best method between the two methods mentioned above using specific statistical criteria. The research found that the best approach is to build a model for predi
... Show MoreThe current research aims to find out ( the effectiveness of the structural model of learning in the acquisition of geographical concepts at the first grade average students ) , and achieving the goals of research has been formulating the null hypothesis of the following :
" There is no difference statistically significant when Mistoi (0.5 ) between the mean scores of the collection of students in the experimental group that is studying the general geographical principles " Bonmozj constructivist learning " and the mean scores of the control group , which is considering the same article ," the traditional way " to acquire concepts.
The researcher adopted th
... Show MoreBackground Subtraction (BGS) is one of the main techniques used for moving object detection which further utilized in video analysis, especially in video surveillance systems. Practically, acquiring a robust background (reference) image is a real challenge due to the dynamic change in the scene. Hence, a key point to BGS is background modeling, in which a model is built and repeatedly used to reconstruct the background image.
From N frames the proposed method store N pixels at location(x,y) in a buffer, then it classify pixel intensity values at that buffer using a proposed online clustering model based on the idea of relative run length, the cluster center with the highest frequency will be adopted as the background pixel
... Show MoreIn this study lattice parameters, band structure, and optical characteristics of pure and V-doped ZnO are examined by employing (USP) and (GGA) with the assistance of First-principles calculation (FPC) derived from (DFT). The measurements are performed in the supercell geometry that were optimized. GGA+U, the geometrical structures of all models, are utilized to compute the amount of energy after optimizing all parameters in the models. The volume of the doped system grows as the content of the dopant V is increased. Pure and V-doped ZnO are investigated for band structure and energy bandgaps using the Monkhorst–Pack scheme's k-point sampling techniques in the Brillouin zone (G-A-H-K-G-M-L-H). In the presence of high V content, the ban
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