The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The problem with research lies in hiding the Hanbali approach in building long and short travel provisions, as well as hiding some provisions relating to short travel that are not provided for by the jurists of Hanbali (in their books).
The research aims to demonstrate the approach and standards on which they based the long and short travel provisions, as well as to reflect the provisions of some of the issues that are silent on long and short travel, with evidence and significance.
The research included a preface and two researches, the researcher in the preface talked about the reality of long and short travel, in the first research on the approach of ha
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for
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The research draws its importance from identifying the methods of profit management in misleading the financial statements, which in turn is reflected in the decisions of the authorities that relied on these reports, and then the models that help in detecting those methods used by the auditors. Risks. The index (margin of excess cash) was used to detect profit management practices on a group of banks listed in the Iraqi market for securities and the number of (23) banks, including (12) commercial bank and (11) Islamic bank and the results were compared to commercial banks with Islamic banks.((The research started from the hypothesis that the use of the (excess cash margin) model in the banking sector reveals the management
... Show Moreهدفت الدراسة الحالية الى التعرف ما اذا كان هناك تقبل اجتماعي للتلاميذ بطيئي من قبل اقرانهم العاديين؟ وكذلك معرفة ما اذا كان هناك فروق ذات دلالة في التقبل الاجتماعي بين افراد عينة الدراسة على وفق المتغيرات الاتية:
أ- العمر (9-13)
ب- الجنس (ذكور –اناث)
ج- المرحلة الدراسية
د- الحالة الاقتصادية (جيدة –متوسطة –جيدة جدا)
ولغرض تحقيق اه
... Show MoreThis study aims to investigate the possible role of circulating microRNA-142-3p (miR-142-3p) in the
development of graves disease (GD) and its association with the antibody directed against thyroid
stimulating hormone receptor (TSHR-Ab) production in patients with GD. Forty patients with positive
TSHR-Ab enrolled in this study were divided ,based on treatment, into (22 untreated (newly diagnosed) and
18 treated patients) and based on family history (30 with positive family history and 10 with negative family
history). In addition to forty healthy subjects with sex and age matching as a control group. The expression
level of circulating miR-142-3p was determined by two steps reverse transcription polymerase c
This paper deals with modelling and control of Euler-Bernoulli smart beam interacting with a fluid medium. Several distributed piezo-patches (actuators and/or sensors) are bonded on the surface of the target beam. To model the vibrating beam properly, the effect of the piezo-patches and the hydrodynamic loads should be taken into account carefully. The partial differential equation PDE for the target oscillating beam is derived considering the piezo-actuators as input controls. Fluid forces are decomposed into two components: 1) hydrodynamic forces due to the beam oscillations, and 2) external (disturbance) hydrodynamic loads independent of beam motion. Then the PDE is discretized usi
A Genetic Algorithm optimization model is used in this study to find the optimum flow values of the Tigris river branches near Ammara city, which their water is to be used for central marshes restoration after mixing in Maissan River. These tributaries are Al-Areed, AlBittera and Al-Majar Al-Kabeer Rivers. The aim of this model is to enhance the water quality in Maissan River, hence provide acceptable water quality for marsh restoration. The model is applied for different water quality change scenarios ,i.e. , 10%,20% increase in EC,TDS and BOD. The model output are the optimum flow values for the three rivers while, the input data are monthly flows(1994-2011),monthly water requirements and water quality parameters (EC, TDS, BOD, DO and
... Show MoreSemi-active suspension systems have emerged as an attractive alternative to fully active suspensions because they offer a superior capacity to improve vehicle ride comfort and handling performance with significantly lower energy consumption. Conventional semi-active control strategies, however, such as skyhook damping, often cannot accommodate the nonlinear and time-varying dynamics of vehicles in operation under impulse or severe road disturbances. In this context, an intelligent smart-damper controller is proposed in this paper by incorporating a Modified Fuzzy Adaptive Fuzzy Logic Control framework in a half-car suspension model. In the developed controller, the effective damping force is adaptively tuned using real-time measurements of
... Show MoreA partial temporary immunity SIR epidemic model involv nonlinear treatment rate is proposed and studied. The basic reproduction number is determined. The local and global stability of all equilibria of the model are analyzed. The conditions for occurrence of local bifurcation in the proposed epidemic model are established. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm our obtained analytical results and specify the control set of parameters that affect the dynamics of the model.
Taking into account the significance of food chains in the environment, it demonstrates the interdependence of all living things and has economic implications for people. Hunting cooperation, fear, and intraspecific competition are all included in a food chain model that has been developed and researched. The study tries to comprehend how these elements affect the behavior of species along the food chain. We first examined the suggested model's solution properties before calculating every potential equilibrium point and examining the stability and bifurcation nearby. We have identified the factors that guarantee the global stability of the positive equilibrium point using the geometric approach. Additionally, the circumstances that would gu
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