The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
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This research included the preparation and characterization of new demulsifies from natural and synthetic polymers of chitosan and polyvinyl alcohol that are environmentally friendly and at the same time have high efficacy comparable to emulsifiers. imported foreign. The prepared compounds were examined using infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and all the spectral signals of the polymers were in good agreement with the chemical composition of the polymers. And the melting and decomposition that occur on polymers at high temperatures. The effect of the length and type of side chain in the compositions of polymers on the process of water separation of oil emulsions w
... Show MoreRobot manipulator is a multi-input multi-output system with high complex nonlinear dynamics, requiring an advanced controller in order to track a specific trajectory. In this work, forward and inverse kinematics are presented based on Denavit Hartenberg notation to convert the end effector planned path from cartesian space to joint space and vice versa where a cubic spline interpolation is used for trajectory segments to ensure the continuity in velocity and acceleration. Also, the derived mathematical dynamic model is based on Eular Lagrange energy method to contain the effect of friction and disturbance torques beside the inertia and Coriolis effect. Two types of controller are applied ; the nonlinear computed torque control (CTC
... Show MoreThis work deals with determination of optimum conditions of direct diffusion bonding welding of austenitic stainlesssteel type AISI 304L with Oxygen Free High Conductivity (OFHC) pure copper grade (C10200) in vacuum atmosphere of (1.5 *10-5 mbr.). Mini tab (response surface) was applied for optimizing the influence of diffusion bonding parameters (temperature, time and applied load) on the bonding joints characteristics and the empirical relationship was evaluated which represents the effect of each parameter of the process. The yield strength of diffusion bonded joint was equal to 153 MPa and the efficiency of joint was equal to 66.5% as compared with hard drawn copper. The diffusion zone reveals high microhardness than coppe
... Show MoreA random laser is a non-conventional laser whose feedback mechanism is based on dissorder-induced light. However, random lasers occur in gain media with numerous scatterers and produce coherent laser emission without any predesigned cavity. The generation of coherent emission from multiple scattering is quite general and its basic principles are shown here using sulforhodamine B-TiO suspensions system. These suspensions were pumped with 337.1 nm pulses from N2 laser and the spectral and temporal behavior of light emitted from the pumped surface was recorded. When we pump power above a certain threshold a dramatic narrowing of the emission line width and a shortening of the emitted pulses were observed. We have experimentally found that i
... Show MorePetroleum is one of the most important substances consumed by man at present times, a major energy source in this century, petroleum oils can cause environmental pollution during various stages of production, transportation, refining and use, petroleum hydrocarbons pollutions ranging from soil, ground water to marine environment, become an inevitable problem in the modern life, current study focused on bioremediation process of hydrocarbons contaminants that remaining in the bottom of gas cylinders and discharged to the soil. Twenty-four bacterial isolates were isolated from contaminated soils all of them gram negative bacteria, bacterial isolates screening to investigate the ability of biodegradation of hydrocarbons, these isolates inocula
... Show MoreWith the escalation of cybercriminal activities, the demand for forensic investigations into these crimeshas grown significantly. However, the concept of systematic pre-preparation for potential forensicexaminations during the software design phase, known as forensic readiness, has only recently gainedattention. Against the backdrop of surging urban crime rates, this study aims to conduct a rigorous andprecise analysis and forecast of crime rates in Los Angeles, employing advanced Artificial Intelligence(AI) technologies. This research amalgamates diverse datasets encompassing crime history, varioussocio-economic indicators, and geographical locations to attain a comprehensive understanding of howcrimes manifest within the city. Lev
... Show MoreThe most common cause of upper respiratory tract infection is coronavirus, which has a crown appearance due to the existence of spikes on its envelope. D-dimer levels in the plasma have been considered a prognostic factor for COVID-19 patients.
The aim of the study is to demonstrate the role of COVID-19 on coagulation parameters D-dimer and ferritin with their association with COVID-19 severity and disease progression in a single-center study.
This paper deals with prediction the effect of soil re-moulding (smear) on the ultimate bearing capacity of driven piles. The proposed method based on detecting the decrease in ultimate bearing capacity of the pile shaft (excluding the share of pile tip) after sliding downward. This was done via conducting an experimental study on three installed R.C piles in a sandy clayey silt soil. The piles were installed so that a gap space is left between its tip and the base of borehole. The piles were tested for ultimate bearing capacity according to ASTM D1143 in three stages. Between each two stages the pile was jacked inside the borehole until a sliding of about 200mm is achieved to simulate the soil re-moulding due to actual pile driving. The re
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