The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
The objective of this research is to identify the analysis of the ethics of the administration in the development of the social responsibility of one government organizations, and to achieve the objectives of the research was the use of a questionnaire developed for the purpose of data collection and distribution to the research sample, was chosen as a total sample population (50) individuals were relying on statistical package to do a statistical analysis for this research, user, ANSI (SPSS) simple regression analysis, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient.
Research findings show the role of social responsibility in achieving the university's strategy,
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Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison
... Show MoreMaxim Gorky’s Mother is one of the most important literary genre in social realism, in which he depicts female characters with revolutionary fervor and enthusiasm, projecting his social ideologies and dreams. Though the novel unique importance lies in the fact that it has been thoroughly analyzed by many writers, historians and sociologists, there are almost no studies devoted to the role of women out of a Marxist and feminist point of view. The present paper sheds light on the Russian woman‘s important role in overcoming all adversity and gain her position on Social Realism.
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... Show MoreCrises affect the economic growth of the country in general and the banking sector in particular. Given the importance of this sector, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of banks from time to time and monitor the liquidity of each bank and how to organize its management to overcome any crisis or emergency situation that may befall it. The research seeks to diagnose the level of impact of crisis management. In the liquidity of Iraqi private banks, using liquidity indicators, as the research community represents the banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange As for the research sample, it is represented by (10) pri
... Show MoreAchieve breastfeeding book and theft book
To the end of the door cut the way of the manuscript
Sailing Forum for Sheikh Ibrahim bin Mohammed Halabi
(T: 659 H)
This study comes as: The responsibility of the Iraqi newspapers in promoting the political culture inside society, an analytical study in newspapers: Al-Sabah, Al-Ittihad, Al-Aalam for 2/ 3/ 2013 to 31/ 3/ 2013 to spot light on the extent to which the three mentioned newspapers are compliance with the promotion of the political culture inside society which is seen as one of the essential requirements for the success and promotion of the democratic process inside society.
The study aims to: finding out the extent to which these newspapers are compliance with their responsibility in the promoting the political culture inside society; knowing the nature of their role in pr
... Show MoreThe research includes the synthesis and identification of the mixed ligands complexes of M+2ions in general composition[M(Asn)2(SMX)] Where L- Aspargine (C4H8N2O3)symbolized (AsnH) as a primary ligand and Sulfamethoxazole(C10H11N3O3S) symbolized (SMX) as a secondary ligand. The ligands and the metal chlorides were brought in to reaction at room temperature in(v/v) ethanol /water as solvent containing NaOH. The reaction required the following [(metal: 2(Na+Asn-): (SMX)] molar ratios with M(II) ions, Where: M(II)=Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II) and Hg(II). The UV–Vis and magnetic moment data revealed an octahedral geometry around M(II), The conductivity data show a non-electrolytic nature of the complexes. The antimicrobial a
... Show MoreBackground: The association between facial types and dental arches forms has considerable implications in orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning. The aim was to establish the maxillary and mandibular dental arches width and length in skeletal and dental class II division 1 and class III malocclusion groups, find out the most frequent dental arch form and facial type and the association between them and to check the gender differences. Materials and Methods: Frontal and lateral facial photographs and maxillary and mandibular occlussal photographs for 90 iraqi subjects with age 18-25 years old (45 males and 45 females) divided equally into three groups, the 1st group with class II division 1malocclusion (overjet more than 3mm but less t
... Show MoreBackground: In dentistry, dentist takes the advantages of soft lining materials due to the viscoelastic properties. The major problem is the adhesion of the soft liner with the denture base material. Materials and Methods: Heat cured of high impact acrylic resin specimens prepared with dimensions 75x13x13mm for shear bond strength test, soft lining material (Refit and Mollosil) with a 3-mm thickness and used to join each two acrylic blocks. Also four specimens with the same previous dimensions utilized for chemical and physical surface analysis. The specimens grouped as control (without plasma) and experiment (with oxygen plasma) treated high impact acrylic specimens. Results: Plasma treatment increased the shear bond strength for both Refi
... Show MoreThe compound 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), an environmental contaminant, is a potent ligand for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). In the current study, we made an exciting observation that naive C57BL/6 mice that were exposed i.p. to TCDD showed massive mobilization of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) in the peritoneal cavity. These MDSCs were highly immunosuppressive and attenuated Con A–induced hepatitis upon adoptive transfer. TCDD administration in naive mice also led to induction of several chemokines and cytokines in the peritoneal cavity and serum (CCL2, CCL3, CCL4, CCL11, CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL5, CXCL9, G-CSF, GM-CSF, VEGF, and M-CSF) and chemokine receptors