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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 06 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
Effect of hunting cooperation and fear in a food chain model with intraspecific competition
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Taking into account the significance of food chains in the environment, it demonstrates the interdependence of all living things and has economic implications for people. Hunting cooperation, fear, and intraspecific competition are all included in a food chain model that has been developed and researched. The study tries to comprehend how these elements affect the behavior of species along the food chain. We first examined the suggested model's solution properties before calculating every potential equilibrium point and examining the stability and bifurcation nearby. We have identified the factors that guarantee the global stability of the positive equilibrium point using the geometric approach. Additionally, the circumstances that would gu

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Publication Date
Mon May 12 2025
Journal Name
Boundary Value Problems
Minimal wave speed and traveling wave in nonlocal dispersion SIS epidemic model with delay
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This study examines traveling wave solutions of the SIS epidemic model with nonlocal dispersion and delay. The research shows that a key factor in determining whether traveling waves exist is the basic reproduction number R0. In particular, the system permits nontrivial traveling wave solutions for σ≥σ∗ for R0>1, whereas there are no such solutions for σ<σ∗. This is because there is a minimal wave speed σ∗>0. On the other hand, there are no traveling wave solutions when R0≤1. In conclusion, we provide several numerical simulations that illustrate the existence of TWS.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Model of Intelligent Traffic Light System with Saving Power
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In this paper, a FPGA model of intelligent traffic light system with power saving was built. The intelligent traffic light system consists of sensors placed on the side's ends of the intersection to sense the presence or absence of vehicles. This system reduces the waiting time when the traffic light is red, through the transition from traffic light state to the other state, when the first state spends a lot of time, because there are no more vehicles. The proposed system is built using VHDL, simulated using Xilinx ISE 9.2i package, and implemented using Spartan-3A XC3S700A FPGA kit. Implementation and Simulation behavioral model results show that the proposed intelligent traffic light system model satisfies the specified operational req

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Study on Transportation Models in Their Minimum and Maximum Values with Applications of Real Data
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The purpose of this paper is to apply different transportation models in their minimum and maximum values by finding starting basic feasible solution and finding the optimal solution. The requirements of transportation models were presented with one of their applications in the case of minimizing the objective function, which was conducted by the researcher as real data, which took place one month in 2015, in one of the poultry farms for the production of eggs

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Effect of Magnetic Field with Nanofluid on Heat Transfer in a Horizontal Pipe
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This work presents an experimental study of heat transfer and flow of distilled water and metal oxide nanofluid Fe3O4-distilled water at concentrations of (φ = 0.3, 0.6, 0.9 %) by volume in a horizontal pipe with constant magnetic field. All the tests are carried out with Reynolds number range (2900-9820) and uniform heat flux (11262-19562 W/m2). The results show that, the nanofluid concentration and magnetic intensity increase, the Nusselt number increases. The maximum enhancement in Nusselt number with magnetic nanofluid is (5.4 %, 26.4 %, 42.7 %) for volume concentration (0.3, 0.6, 0.9 %) respectively. The enhancement is maximized with magnetic intensity (0.1, 0.2, 0.3 tesla) respectively to (43.9, 44

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Static Analysis of Laminated Composite Plate using New Higher Order Shear Deformation Plate Theory
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 In the present work a theoretical analysis depending on the new higher order . element in shear deformation theory for simply supported cross-ply laminated plate is developed. The new displacement field of the middle surface expanded as a combination of exponential and trigonometric function of thickness coordinate with the transverse displacement taken to be constant through the thickness. The governing equations are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution method to obtain the deflection and stresses under uniform sinusoidal load. The effect of many design parameters such as number of laminates, aspect ratio and thickness ratio on static behavior of the laminated composite plate has been studied. The

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Birth Order and its Relationship to the Lifestyles of Adolescent Students: رحاب عارف السعدي
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This study aims to know the relationship between the birth order and lifestyles among a sample of adolescent students. The sample of the study consisted of (200) students selected from the governmental schools in the Directorate of  Education of Qabatiya, in the second semester of the academic year 2020/2021. The results of the study have revealed that the most common lifestyles among the sample of the study are represented by: (the belonging) style, (the submissive) style, (the avenger) style, (the pampered) style, respectively. The study has also found that there are statistically significant differences in the lifestyles of: (the victim, the domineering, the avenger, and the harmful) which are ascribed to the gender variable. Mor

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
SEASONAL ABUNDANCE OF THIRD INSTAR LARVAE OF FLIES (ORDER: DIPTERA) ON THE EXPOSED CARCASSES
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The study aims to identify the third instar larvae of fly species (Order : Diptera) feeding on carcasses (Fishes and Rabbits). Two families (Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae), were recorded with highest rate in Calliphoridae species. The following species had been registered in accordance with their prevalence respectively; Calliphora vicina Rob.-Desvoidy, Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedmann), Chrysomy megacephala (Fabricius), Sarcophaga sp. and Lucilia sericata (Meigen). The highest rate has been registered Calliphora vicina during February, November, December and January at rate 100%, the larvae of this fly have not been observed during July, August, September and October. The highest rate of Ch

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Frequency Dispersion of the Signal in the Recursive Digital Section of the Second Order
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Abstract<p>The problems of modeling the signal and dispersion properties of a second order recursive section in the integer parameter space are considered. The formulation and solution of the section synthesis problem by selective and dispersive criteria using the methods of integer nonlinear mathematical programming are given. The availability of obtaining both positive and negative frequency dispersion of a signal in a recursive section, as well as the possibility of minimizing dispersion distortions in the system, is shown.</p>
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum
SEASONAL ABUNDANCE OF THIRD INSTAR LARVAE OF FLIES (ORDER: DIPTERA) ON THE EXPOSED CARCASSES
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