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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Bending Properties of Stainless Steel 304 Sheets Welded by Tungsten Inert Gas Welding Process
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In this research, the effects of both current and argon gas pressure on the bending properties of welded joints were studied. Using the possible ranges of welding gas pressures and currents, Tungsten inert gas welding (TIG) of stainless steel (304) sheet was used to obtain their influence on the maximum bending force of the (TIG) welded joints. Design of experiment (DOE) ‘version 10' was used to determine the design matrix of experiments depending on the used levels of the input factors. Response surface methodology (RSM) technique was used to obtain an empirical mathematical model for the maximum bending force as a function of welding parameters (Current and Argon gas pressure). Also, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to verif

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The dropping of three zeroes from Iraqi dinar
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           The purpose of this research is to explain the effect of the dropping of three zeroes from Iraqi dinar on the basic role of the dinar and derivative and dynamic in transaction of Iraqi economic. the importance of this research comes from the effect of this operation on the evaluation of the exchange between the individuals of Iraqi society and the other between the Iraqi individuals and the foreign whom use the Iraqi dinar as a tool for exchange also the effect of the operation on the reserves of the Iraqi dinar the results of this research are as the following:-

1-the operation of dropping of zeroes must be associated with increase of the sharing of economic sectors wi

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use Of Some Parametric And Non parametric Methods For Analysis Of Factorial Experiments With Application
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summary

In this search, we examined the factorial experiments and the study of the significance of the main effects, the interaction of the factors and their simple effects by the F test (ANOVA) for analyze the data of the factorial experience. It is also known that the analysis of variance requires several assumptions to achieve them, Therefore, in case of violation of one of these conditions we conduct a transform to the data in order to match or achieve the conditions of analysis of variance, but it was noted that these transfers do not produce accurate results, so we resort to tests or non-parametric methods that work as a solution or alternative to the parametric tests , these method

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية للبنات / الجامعة العراقية
مسائل مختارة من ترجيحات الإمام البزازي في الحدود والجنايات من كتاب الفتاوى البزازية / دراسة فقهية مقارنة
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تضمن البحث التعريف بالإمام البزازي، وحياته العلمية، ومشايخه، وتلامذته، ومؤلفاته، ووفاته، وأربعة مسائل مختارة من ترجيحاته في الحدود والجنايات، والإمام محمد بن محمد بن شهاب بن يوسف (ت827هـ)، يُكنَّى بالكَردَرِيِّ الحنفي الخوارزمي الشهير بالبزَّازي، ويُنسب إلى كَرْدَر، وقد عرض في كتابه كثيرًا من كتب الحنفية، وذكر الكثير من آراء علمائهم مع تعرضه لبعض آراء المذاهب الأخرى. ولم يعتمد على التعريفات اللغوية والاصط

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Economic contributions to small industrial projects (Selected international experiences with special reference to Iraq)
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Abstract:

Most of the studies on this subject, small industrial projects, by researchers and scholars in the economic field show the great and increasing importance of doing this kind of projects, the extent of which can be determined by the contribution of these projects to indicators and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. So this research aims to show the extent of the economic contribution of projects in selected international experiences and in the Iraqi economy. As international experiences have provided the opportunity for the progress and growth of small projects in their economies, which led to an increase in the contribution of these projects in the recruitment of economically active manpower, in added

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 08 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Laser Detection and Tracking System Using an Array of Photodiodes with Fuzzy Logic controller
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In this work laser detection and tracking system (LDTS) is designed and implemented using a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). A 5 mW He-Ne laser system and an array of nine PN photodiodes are used in the detection system. The FLC is simulated using MATLAB package and the result is stored in a lock up table to use it in the real time operation of the system. The results give a good system response in the target detection and tracking in the real time operation.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Histological Changes in the Lung and Liver of Mice Treated with Brake Pad Particles
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In the present study, the effects of brake pad particles of lung and liver histological sections were evaluated for (60) adult male mice. The animals were divided into three groups ( A,B,C) according to the periods of exposure (4, 8, and 12) weeks respectively exposed to brake pad particles in addition to the control groups (F) exposed to fresh air only. A special inhalation chamber designed locally has been used to expose the animals. The exposure to brake pad particles was (2.228) µg/m³ for 30 min/day, 5 days/week for (4,8and12) weeks respectively.

The examination in group (A) of the histological sections of the lung showed the thickness of interalveolar septa.  Also, a congestion of alveolar capillary was marked indicat

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Budget Deficiency and Its Treatment Prospects and Policies with Reference to Iraq (2003-2012)
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Developed and underdevelopment countries, on equal terms, face the problem of budget deficiency. Budget deficiency means that the public expenditure surpasses the public revenues. This, on the international level, is one of the most serious economic problems with many direct effects on the national economy, and depends, basically, on its finance chosen method. Looking for a solution to this problem, for this reason and many other ones, has been highlighted in spite of the many attempts to reduce the role of the governmental expenditure. Budget deficiency can not be attributed to a single unique cause since it is complex phenomenons the causes of which are related to many factors contribute to its occurrence, some of which refer t

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Incidence of Toxoplasmosis in Psoriasis Patients and Possible Correlation with Tumor Necrosis Factor-α
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            Toxoplasma gondii is an opportunistic parasite in immune-compromised persons. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis in psoriasis patients is investigated. In addition, the treatment effect on psoriasis patients infected with toxoplasmosis through evaluating Tumor Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) cytokine levels is studied. Blood samples were collected from 130 individuals who involved 60 control samples and 70 samples with psoriasis. They attended Medical City Hospital in Baghdad province from October 2017 - February 2018. Then, the anti- T. gondii antibodies (IgM and IgG) and TNF- α in the sera were determined via the enzyme linked immune-sorbent assay. The highe

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