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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2008
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Rate of Schneiderian First Rank Symptoms among Newly Diagnosed Schizophrenic Patients
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Background: Schneiderian first rank symptoms are
considered highly valuable in the diagnosis of
schneideria.
They are more evident in the acute phase of the
disorder and fading gradually with time. Many studies
have shown that the rate of these symptoms are
variable in different countries and are colored by
cultural beliefs and values.
Objectives: To find out the rate of Schneiderian first
rank symptoms among newly diagnosed schizophrenic
patients, to assess which symptom(s) might
predominate in those patients, and to find out if there
is/are any correlation(s) between the occurrence of
these symptoms and the sex of the patients.
Methods: Out of twenty-four patients with no past
psychiatric hi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
First principles calculations of Al AsxP1-x ternary nanocrystal alloying composition
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III-V zinc-blende AlP, AlAs semiconductors and their alloy Aluminum Arsenide phosphide Al AsxP1-x ternary nanocrystals have been investigated using Ab- initio density functional theory (Ab-initio-DFT) at the generalized-gradient approximation (GGA) level with STO-3G basis set coupled with large unit cell method (LUC). The dimension of crystal is found around (1.56 – 2.24) nm at a function of increasing the sizes (8, 16, 54, 64) with different concentration of arsenide (x=0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1) respectively. Gaussian 03 code program has been used throughout this study to calculate some of the physical properties such as the electronic properties energy gap, lattice constant, valence and conduction band as well as density of state. Re

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 12 2006
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Line Narrowing in the Sulforhodamine B Dye Solution with TiO2 Scattering Center
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A random laser is a non-conventional laser whose feedback mechanism is based on dissorder-induced light. However, random lasers occur in gain media with numerous scatterers and produce coherent laser emission without any predesigned cavity. The generation of coherent emission from multiple scattering is quite general and its basic principles are shown here using sulforhodamine B-TiO suspensions system. These suspensions were pumped with 337.1 nm pulses from N2 laser and the spectral and temporal behavior of light emitted from the pumped surface was recorded. When we pump power above a certain threshold a dramatic narrowing of the emission line width and a shortening of the emitted pulses were observed. We have experimentally found that i

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Publication Date
Sun May 12 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Motion Control of Three Links Robot Manipulator (Open Chain) with Spherical Wrist
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Robot manipulator is a multi-input multi-output system with high complex nonlinear dynamics, requiring an advanced controller in order to track a specific trajectory. In this work, forward and inverse kinematics are presented based on Denavit Hartenberg notation to convert the end effector planned path from cartesian space to joint space and vice versa where a cubic spline interpolation is used for trajectory segments to ensure the continuity in velocity and acceleration.  Also, the derived mathematical dynamic model is based on Eular Lagrange energy method to contain the effect of friction and disturbance torques beside the inertia and Coriolis effect. Two types of controller are applied ; the nonlinear computed torque control (CTC

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 12 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization of Diffusion Bonding of Pure Copper (OFHC) with Stainless Steel 304L: .
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This work deals with determination of optimum conditions of direct diffusion bonding welding of austenitic stainlesssteel type AISI 304L with Oxygen Free High Conductivity (OFHC) pure copper grade (C10200) in vacuum atmosphere of (1.5 *10-5 mbr.). Mini tab (response surface) was applied for optimizing the influence of diffusion bonding parameters (temperature, time and applied load) on the bonding joints characteristics and the empirical relationship was evaluated which represents the effect of each parameter of the process. The yield strength of diffusion bonded joint was equal to 153 MPa and the efficiency of joint was equal to 66.5% as compared with hard drawn copper. The diffusion zone reveals high microhardness than coppe

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Statistical Applications In Genetics And Molecular Biology
Mixture model-based association analysis with case-control data in genome wide association studies
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Abstract<p>Multilocus haplotype analysis of candidate variants with genome wide association studies (GWAS) data may provide evidence of association with disease, even when the individual loci themselves do not. Unfortunately, when a large number of candidate variants are investigated, identifying risk haplotypes can be very difficult. To meet the challenge, a number of approaches have been put forward in recent years. However, most of them are not directly linked to the disease-penetrances of haplotypes and thus may not be efficient. To fill this gap, we propose a mixture model-based approach for detecting risk haplotypes. Under the mixture model, haplotypes are clustered directly according to their estimated d</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Genetic Algorithm Optimization Model for Central Marches Restoration Flows with Different Water Quality Scenarios
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A Genetic Algorithm optimization model is used in this study to find the optimum flow values of the Tigris river branches near Ammara city, which their water is to be used for central marshes restoration after mixing in Maissan River. These tributaries are Al-Areed, AlBittera and Al-Majar Al-Kabeer Rivers. The aim of this model is to enhance the water quality in Maissan River, hence provide acceptable water quality for marsh restoration. The model is applied for different water quality change scenarios ,i.e. , 10%,20% increase in EC,TDS and BOD. The model output are the optimum flow values for the three rivers while, the input data are monthly flows(1994-2011),monthly water requirements and water quality parameters (EC, TDS, BOD, DO and

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Publication Date
Mon May 12 2025
Journal Name
Boundary Value Problems
Minimal wave speed and traveling wave in nonlocal dispersion SIS epidemic model with delay
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This study examines traveling wave solutions of the SIS epidemic model with nonlocal dispersion and delay. The research shows that a key factor in determining whether traveling waves exist is the basic reproduction number R0. In particular, the system permits nontrivial traveling wave solutions for σ≥σ∗ for R0>1, whereas there are no such solutions for σ<σ∗. This is because there is a minimal wave speed σ∗>0. On the other hand, there are no traveling wave solutions when R0≤1. In conclusion, we provide several numerical simulations that illustrate the existence of TWS.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The dynamical behavior of AIDS and HCV infection model with two modes of transmission
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The aim of this paper is to describe an epidemic model when two SI-Type of diseases are transmitted vertically as well as horizontally through one population. The population contains two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, while the infectious are divided into three subgroups: Those infected by AIDS disease, HCV disease, and by both diseases. A nonlinear mathematical model for AIDS and HCV diseases is Suggested and analyzed. Both local and global stability for each feasible equilibrium point are determined theoretically by using the stability theory of differential equations, Routh-Hurwitz and Gershgorin theorem. Moreover, the numerical simulation was carried out on the model parameters in order to determine their impact on the disease

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
On modelling and adaptive control of a linear smart beam model interacting with fluid
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Abstract<p>This paper deals with modelling and control of Euler-Bernoulli smart beam interacting with a fluid medium. Several distributed piezo-patches (actuators and/or sensors) are bonded on the surface of the target beam. To model the vibrating beam properly, the effect of the piezo-patches and the hydrodynamic loads should be taken into account carefully. The partial differential equation PDE for the target oscillating beam is derived considering the piezo-actuators as input controls. Fluid forces are decomposed into two components: 1) hydrodynamic forces due to the beam oscillations, and 2) external (disturbance) hydrodynamic loads independent of beam motion. Then the PDE is discretized usi</p> ... Show More
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