The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract:
Most of the studies on this subject, small industrial projects, by researchers and scholars in the economic field show the great and increasing importance of doing this kind of projects, the extent of which can be determined by the contribution of these projects to indicators and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. So this research aims to show the extent of the economic contribution of projects in selected international experiences and in the Iraqi economy. As international experiences have provided the opportunity for the progress and growth of small projects in their economies, which led to an increase in the contribution of these projects in the recruitment of economically active manpower, in added
... Show MoreIn the present study, the effects of brake pad particles of lung and liver histological sections were evaluated for (60) adult male mice. The animals were divided into three groups ( A,B,C) according to the periods of exposure (4, 8, and 12) weeks respectively exposed to brake pad particles in addition to the control groups (F) exposed to fresh air only. A special inhalation chamber designed locally has been used to expose the animals. The exposure to brake pad particles was (2.228) µg/m³ for 30 min/day, 5 days/week for (4,8and12) weeks respectively.
The examination in group (A) of the histological sections of the lung showed the thickness of interalveolar septa. Also, a congestion of alveolar capillary was marked indicat
... Show MoreToxoplasma gondii is an opportunistic parasite in immune-compromised persons. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis in psoriasis patients is investigated. In addition, the treatment effect on psoriasis patients infected with toxoplasmosis through evaluating Tumor Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) cytokine levels is studied. Blood samples were collected from 130 individuals who involved 60 control samples and 70 samples with psoriasis. They attended Medical City Hospital in Baghdad province from October 2017 - February 2018. Then, the anti- T. gondii antibodies (IgM and IgG) and TNF- α in the sera were determined via the enzyme linked immune-sorbent assay. The highe
... Show MoreIn this research a local adsorbent was prepared from waste tires using two-step pyrolysis method. In the carbonization process, nitrogen gas flow rate was 0.2L/min at carbonization temperature of 500ºC for 1h. The char products were then preceded to the activation process at 850°C under carbon dioxide (CO2) activation flow rate of 0.6L/min for 3h. The activation method produced local adsorbent material with a surface area and total pore volume as high as 118.59m2 /g and 0.1467cm3/g, respectively. The produced . local adsorbent (activated carbon) was used for adsorption of lead from aqueous solution. The continuous fixed bed column experiments were conducted. The adsorption capacity performance of prepared activated carbons in this work
... Show MoreThe current study includes 144 samples were 106 bacterial samples belonging to the clinical sources, 38 bacterial samples belonging to the environmental sources to investigate the presence of bacteria P. aeruginosa. The results of diagnosis clarified that there are 45 bacterial isolates belonging to the bacterium P. aeruginosa The examination of the sensitivity of all bacterial isolates was done for elected 45 isolation towards the 11 antibiotic by spread method on the dishes. The results showed that the resistance ratio toward Cefixim, Cefotaxim, Tetracycline, Amoxicillin, Cloxacillin, Methicillin, Erythromycin and Naldixic acid was 77.7, 73.3, 84.4, 82.2, 80, 77.7, 77.7 and 73.3 respectively, While most isolates were sensitive to all o
... Show MoreThis paper aims at the analytical level to know the security topics that were used with data journalism, and the expression methods used in the statements of the Security Media Cell, as well as to identify the means of clarification used in data journalism. About the Security Media Cell, and the methods preferred by the public in presenting press releases, especially determining the strength of the respondents' attitude towards the data issued by the Security Media Cell. On the Security Media Cell, while the field study included the distribution of a questionnaire to the public of Baghdad Governorate. The study reached several results, the most important of which is the interest of the security media cell in presenting its data in differ
... Show MoreThis research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing it with anothe
... Show MoreCodes of red, green, and blue data (RGB) extracted from a lab-fabricated colorimeter device were used to build a proposed classifier with the objective of classifying colors of objects based on defined categories of fundamental colors. Primary, secondary, and tertiary colors namely red, green, orange, yellow, pink, purple, blue, brown, grey, white, and black, were employed in machine learning (ML) by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm using Python. The classifier, which was based on the ANN algorithm, required a definition of the mentioned eleven colors in the form of RGB codes in order to acquire the capability of classification. The software's capacity to forecast the color of the code that belongs to an object under de
... Show MoreIn the present study, activated carbon supported metal oxides was prepared for thiophene removal from model fuel (Thiophene in n-hexane) using adsorptive desulfurization technique. Commercial activated carbon was loaded individually with copper oxide in the form of Cu2O/AC. A comparison of the kinetic and isotherm models of the sorption of thiophene from model fuel was made at different operating conditions including adsorbent dose, initial thiophene concentration and contact time. Various adsorption rate constants and isotherm parameters were calculated. Results indicated that the desulfurization was enhanced when copper was loaded onto activated carbon surface. The highest desulfurization percent for Cu2O/AC and o
... Show MoreThis research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing i
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