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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cloud Data Security through BB84 Protocol and Genetic Algorithm
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In the current digitalized world, cloud computing becomes a feasible solution for the virtualization of cloud computing resources.  Though cloud computing has many advantages to outsourcing an organization’s information, but the strong security is the main aspect of cloud computing. Identity authentication theft becomes a vital part of the protection of cloud computing data. In this process, the intruders violate the security protocols and perform attacks on the organizations or user’s data. The situation of cloud data disclosure leads to the cloud user feeling insecure while using the cloud platform. The different traditional cryptographic techniques are not able to stop such kinds of attacks. BB84 protocol is the first quantum cry

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Publication Date
Tue May 20 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Estimating Water Quality from Satellite Image and Reflectance Data
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The useful of remote sensing techniques in Environmental Engineering and another science is to save time, Coast and efforts, also to collect more accurate information under monitoring mechanism. In this research a number of statistical models were used for determining the best relationships between each water quality parameter and the mean reflectance values generated for different channels of radiometer operate simulated to the thematic Mappar satellite image. Among these models are the regression models which enable us to as certain and utilize a relation between a variable of interest. Called a dependent variable; and one or more independent variables

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation Model of Wind Turbine Power Control System with Fuzzy Regulation by Mamdani and Larsen Algorithms
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Abstract 

     The aim of this work is to create a power control system for wind turbines based on fuzzy logic. Three power control loop was considered including: changing the pitch angle of  the blade, changing the length of the blade and turning the nacelle. The stochastic law was given for changes and instant inaccurate assessment of wind conditions changes. Two different algorithms were used for fuzzy inference in the control loop, the Mamdani and Larsen algorithms. These two different algorithms are materialized and developed in this study in Matlab-Fuzzy logic toolbox which has been practically implemented using necessary intelligent control system in electrical engineerin

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement Integration of business model disclosure with qualitative characteristics of accounting information (Relevant and Raithful Representation)
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The research aims at integrating the disclosure of the business models with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information. To achieve this, the elements of the business model should be identified and disclosed, and then study the possibility of integrating the disclosure of the business model with the qualitative characteristics of accounting information.

To achieve this objective, the research was based on the indicators of disclosure of the business model of the International Accounting Standards Board to measure the disclosure of the business model.

The research reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which were as follows:

Fi

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
THE DYNAMICS OF A STAGE-STRUCTURE PREY-PREDATOR MODEL WITH HUNTING COOPERATION AND ANTI-PREDATOR BEHAVIOR
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The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

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Publication Date
Thu May 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Prey-Predator Model with Michael Mentence Type of Predator Harvesting and Infectious Disease in Prey
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A prey-predator model with Michael Mentence type of predator harvesting and infectious disease in prey is studied. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The dynamical behavior of the system is studied locally as well as globally. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation near each of the equilibrium points is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations are given to show our obtained analytical results.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Stability analysis for the phytoplankton-zooplankton model with depletion of dissolved oxygen and strong Allee effects
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Exact and Near Pareto Optimal Solutions for Total Completion Time and Total Late Work Problem
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     In this paper, the bi-criteria machine scheduling problems (BMSP) are solved, where the discussed problem is represented by the sum of completion and the sum of late work times  simultaneously. In order to solve the suggested BMSP, some metaheurisitc methods are suggested which produce good results. The suggested local search methods are simulated annulling and bees algorithm. The results of the new metaheurisitc methods are compared with the complete enumeration method, which is considered an exact method, then compared results of the heuristics with each other to obtain the most efficient method.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Euro Dinar Trading Analysis Using WARIMA Hybrid Model
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The rise in the general level of prices in Iraq makes the local commodity less able to compete with other commodities, which leads to an increase in the amount of imports and a decrease in the amount of exports, since it raises demand for foreign currencies while decreasing demand for the local currency, which leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the local currency in exchange for an increase in the exchange rate of currencies. This is one of the most important factors affecting the determination of the exchange rate and its fluctuations. This research deals with the currency of the European Euro and its impact against the Iraqi dinar. To make an accurate prediction for any process, modern methods can be used through which

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Publication Date
Wed May 09 2012
Journal Name
Fuzzy Inference System - Theory And Applications
Some Studies on Noise and Its Effects on Industrial/Cognitive Task Performance and Modeling
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