Preferred Language
Articles
/
ijs-802
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
...Show More Authors

Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

Scopus Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Tue Nov 05 2019
Journal Name
Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
HUMAN LAB RATS IN JAMES DASHNER’S THE MAZE RUNNER SERIES (2009 – 2011): HISTORICAL REFERENCES, PRESENT ALLUSIONS, AND DYSTOPIAN FUTURE
...Show More Authors

Purpose: This study aims to shed the light on allusions to real lab rats in Dashner’s trilogy: The Maze Runner (2009), The Scorch Trails (2010), and The Death Cure (2011).  It also aims to trace the historical documents and chronicles essential to reveal the justifications behind the vague political and scientific crimes.  Methodology: The researchers have used the literary analytical approach to study and analyze selected prominent aspects from each novel; such as the concept of lab rats and genocide crimes in The Maze Runner; references to weather experiments, the climate change conspiracy, gas chambers, and the Holocaust in The Scorch Trails; and finally, the man-made diseases and biological weapons in The Death Cure. Results

... Show More
Scopus (1)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Computing
Twitter Location-Based Data: Evaluating the Methods of Data Collection Provided by Twitter Api
...Show More Authors

Twitter data analysis is an emerging field of research that utilizes data collected from Twitter to address many issues such as disaster response, sentiment analysis, and demographic studies. The success of data analysis relies on collecting accurate and representative data of the studied group or phenomena to get the best results. Various twitter analysis applications rely on collecting the locations of the users sending the tweets, but this information is not always available. There are several attempts at estimating location based aspects of a tweet. However, there is a lack of attempts on investigating the data collection methods that are focused on location. In this paper, we investigate the two methods for obtaining location-based dat

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (4)
Crossref (1)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparison of Ionospheric Total Electron Content Measurements with IRI- 2012 Model Predictions Over Athens
...Show More Authors

Total Electron Content measurements derived from Athens station ionograms (ITEC),
located near Iraq, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 (July 2009- April 2010),
according to availability of data, are compared with the latest version of the International
Reference Ionosphere model, IRI-2012 (IRI TEC), using two options (NeQuick, IRI01-
Corr) for topside electron density.
The results obtained from both (ITEC and IRI TEC) techniques were similar, where
correlation coefficients between them are very high. Generally, the IRI predictions
overestimate the ITEC values.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications (ijnaa)
Applying a suitable approximate-simulation technique of an epidemic model with random parameters
...Show More Authors

Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat

... Show More
Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh Distribution for Progressively Censoring Data with S- Function about COVID-19
...Show More Authors

The two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Slice inverse regression with the principal components in reducing high-dimensions data by using simulation
...Show More Authors

This research aims to study the methods of reduction of dimensions that overcome the problem curse of dimensionality when traditional methods fail to provide a good estimation of the parameters So this problem must be dealt with directly . Two methods were used to solve the problem of high dimensional data, The first method is the non-classical method Slice inverse regression ( SIR ) method and the proposed weight standard Sir (WSIR) method and principal components (PCA) which is the general method used in reducing dimensions,    (SIR ) and (PCA) is based on the work of linear combinations of a subset of the original explanatory variables, which may suffer from the problem of heterogeneity and the problem of linear

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 19 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Geological Modeling for Yamama Formation in Abu Amood Oil Field
...Show More Authors

3D geological model of a simple petroleum reservoir for Yamama Formation has
been built in Abu Amood Oil Field using Petrel software, which is a product of
Schlumberger. This model contains the structure, stratigraphy and reservoir
properties (porosity and water saturation) in three directions(X, Y and Z).Geologic
modeling is an applied science of creating computerized representations of portions
of the earth's crust, especially oil and gas fields.
Yamama Formation in Abu Amood Oil Field is divided into thirteen zones by
using well logs and their petrophysical properties, six of which are reservoir zones.
From the top of the formation these six zones are: (YB-1, YB-2, YB-3, YC-1, YC-2
and YC-3). These reservoir

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Feb 29 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design a Fault Tolerance for Real Time Distributed System
...Show More Authors

This paper designed a fault tolerance for soft real time distributed system (FTRTDS). This system is designed to be independently on specific mechanisms and facilities of the underlying real time distributed system. It is designed to be distributed on all the computers in the distributed system and controlled by a central unit.

Besides gathering information about a target program spontaneously, it provides information about the target operating system and the target hardware in order to diagnose the fault before occurring, so it can handle the situation before it comes on. And it provides a distributed system with the reactive capability of reconfiguring and reinitializing after the occurrence of a failure.

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Analysis of a Partial Temporary Immunity SIR Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Treatment Rate
...Show More Authors

     A partial temporary immunity SIR epidemic model involv nonlinear treatment rate is proposed and studied. The basic reproduction number  is determined. The local and global stability of all equilibria of the model are analyzed. The conditions for occurrence of local bifurcation in the proposed epidemic model are established. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm our obtained analytical results and specify the control set of parameters that affect the dynamics of the model.

View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (7)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Real- time Financial reporting : Role promoting completeness and timeliness in Investment & profit distribution decision
...Show More Authors

  The accounting information that is produced by any System a user either entering or leaving, since the needs of the users began to evolve where he became the information provided by the current reporting system that does not meet their requirements in terms of users began to demand information, more quickly, and as a result of the needs of the user accounting system and the development of information and communications technology has emerged a new system (real- time reporting system), which has the ability to produce information at the moment of data gathered, it is no longer dependent on local circumstance, but this case has become a global response where the computer has become a cornerstone of the culture of the communi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref