Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This paper proposes a new approach to model and analyze erect posture, based on a spherical inverted pendulum which is used to mimic the body posture. The pendulum oscillates in two directions, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], from which the mathematical model was derived and two torque components in oscillation directions were introduced. They are estimated using stabilometric data acquired by a foot pressure mapping system. The model was quantitatively investigated using data from 19 participants, who were first were classified into three groups, according to the foot arch-index. Stabilometric data were then collected and fed into the model to estimate the torque’s components. The components were statistically proce
... Show MoreIn this paper, a mathematical model consisting of the prey- predator model with disease in both the population is proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The existences and the stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are studied. Numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the global dynamical behavior of the system.
The tracking of satellites motion and their path around the earth is important things in the mechanical of satellites motion. Significant parameters for the determination of time entrance and existence of the satellite could be obtained from the shadow of the earth. In the present work the tracking and time determination for entry and exit from earth shadow have been studied. In the present work we built a software for tracking the motion of satellites in orbit around the earth and determine the change of both distance and speed as a function of time. The perturbations effect on the satellite has been neglected from the earth atmosphere drag and the earth gravity and other effects. The equation for calculating the shadow is solved using num
... Show MoreAs they are the smallest functional parts of the muscle, motor units (MUs) are considered as the basic building blocks of the neuromuscular system. Monitoring MU recruitment, de-recruitment, and firing rate (by either invasive or surface techniques) leads to the understanding of motor control strategies and of their pathological alterations. EMG signal decomposition is the process of identification and classification of individual motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) in the interference pattern detected with either intramuscular or surface electrodes. Signal processing techniques were used in EMG signal decomposition to understand fundamental and physiological issues. Many techniques have been developed to decompose intramuscularly detec
... Show MoreIn this paper, The transfer function model in the time series was estimated using different methods, including parametric Represented by the method of the Conditional Likelihood Function, as well as the use of abilities nonparametric are in two methods local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method, This research aims to compare those capabilities with the nonlinear transfer function model by using the style of simulation and the study of two models as output variable and one model as input variable in addition t
... Show MoreIn this paper, an ecological model with stage-structure in prey population, fear, anti-predator and harvesting are suggested. Lotka-Volterra and Holling type II functional responses have been assumed to describe the feeding processes . The local and global stability of steady points of this model are established. Finally, the global dynamics are studied numerically to investigate the influence of the parameters on the solutions of the system, especially the effect of fear and anti-predation.
The problem of the research is focused on importance limited of Iraq industrial companies in application of scientific measurements of supply chains performance, The research sought to achieve a group of goals, the most important are , identifying the strengths and weaknesses in the reality of supply chain in General Company for Cotton Industries, The data and information required are gathered from the dependence company, records through the field observations and personal interviews, the research used some quantitative indicators to measure of supply chain performance, The research reached to many conclusions , the most outstanding among them is the existence of a strong inverse correlatio
... Show MoreIt was not coincidene that much talk about intertxtuality prescription phenomenon tzms the creative process but have directed their tracks beyond the litery taxs prior or contemporaneous as the mechanics of in tertexuality able to contain all the pattems of expression in literary texts and fee structures ofher text copable of understanding and in terpretaion especially as the phenomenon of in twrtexuality actually depends on the existence of Understanding and interpretation, especially as the phenomenon of intertextuality actually depends on the existence of systems indicative independent but carries processes rebuild text templates one way or another are included in the templates and visions of other intellectual, Mstmjh languages cultu
... Show MorePurpose: This study aims to shed the light on allusions to real lab rats in Dashner’s trilogy: The Maze Runner (2009), The Scorch Trails (2010), and The Death Cure (2011). It also aims to trace the historical documents and chronicles essential to reveal the justifications behind the vague political and scientific crimes. Methodology: The researchers have used the literary analytical approach to study and analyze selected prominent aspects from each novel; such as the concept of lab rats and genocide crimes in The Maze Runner; references to weather experiments, the climate change conspiracy, gas chambers, and the Holocaust in The Scorch Trails; and finally, the man-made diseases and biological weapons in The Death Cure. Results
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