The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This paper introduces a non-conventional approach with multi-dimensional random sampling to solve a cocaine abuse model with statistical probability. The mean Latin hypercube finite difference (MLHFD) method is proposed for the first time via hybrid integration of the classical numerical finite difference (FD) formula with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique to create a random distribution for the model parameters which are dependent on time t . The LHS technique gives advantage to MLHFD method to produce fast variation of the parameters’ values via number of multidimensional simulations (100, 1000 and 5000). The generated Latin hypercube sample which is random or non-deterministic in nature is further integrated with the FD method t
... Show MoreThe paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM), and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used
Applications of quantitative methods, which had been explicit attention during previous period (the last two centuries) is the method of application sales man or traveling salesman method. According to this interest by the actual need for a lot of the production sectors and companies that distribute their products, whether locally made or the imported for customers or other industry sectors where most of the productive sectors and companies distributed always aspired to (increase profits, imports, the production quantity, quantity of exports. etc. ...) this is the part of the other hand, want to behave during the process of distribution routes that achieve the best or the least or most appropriate.
... Show MoreCipher security is becoming an important step when transmitting important information through networks. The algorithms of cryptography play major roles in providing security and avoiding hacker attacks. In this work two hybrid cryptosystems have been proposed, that combine a modification of the symmetric cryptosystem Playfair cipher called the modified Playfair cipher and two modifications of the asymmetric cryptosystem RSA called the square of RSA technique and the square RSA with Chinese remainder theorem technique. The proposed hybrid cryptosystems have two layers of encryption and decryption. In the first layer the plaintext is encrypted using modified Playfair to get the cipher text, this cipher text will be encrypted using squared
... Show MoreObjective: To measure the serum levels of Fetuin-A, ischemia-modified albumin (IMA), and ferritin in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19in Baghdad, Iraq. Moreover, to determine these biomarkers' cut-off valuesthat differentiate between severely ill patients and control subjects. Methods: This case-control study was done from 15 September to the end of December 2021 and involved a review of the files and collectionof blood samples from patients (n=45, group1) hospitalized in COVID-19 treatment centersbecause of severe symptoms compared tohealthy subjects as controls (n=44, group2). Results: Fetuin-A serum levels were not statistically different between patients and controls. In contrast, IMA and ferritin levels were significan
... Show MoreThe problems of urban historic centers are considered some of the subjects which are widely dealt with in urban studies since the middle of the 20th century. literature of urban development have raised it , beside the fact that large number of urban development projects of the historical centers in many cities of the world ,and emerged from the application of these new problems projects added their original urban problems , because these projects have dealt with the physical structures with the neglect of the social and economic sides, which are the base in sustainable development nResearch problem was elaborated as : The unclearly of knowledge of the potentials of the sustainable development in solving the urban problems of historic cen
... Show MoreEnergy use is second to staffing in building operating costs. Sustainable technology in the energy sector is based on utilizing renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, glazing systems, insulation. Other areas of focus include heating, ventilation and air conditioning; novel materials and construction methods; improved sensors and monitoring systems; and advanced simulation tools that can help building designers make more energy efficient choices. The objective of this research is studying the effect of insulations on energy consumption of buildings in Iraq and identifying the amount of energy savings from application th
... Show MoreAbstract: Microfluidic devices present unique advantages for the development of efficient drug assay and screening. The microfluidic platforms might offer a more rapid and cost-effective alternative. Fluids are confined in devices that have a significant dimension on the micrometer scale. Due to this extreme confinement, the volumes used for drug assays are tiny (milliliters to femtoliters).
In this research, a microfluidic chip consists of micro-channels carved on substrate materials built by using Acrylic (Polymethyl Methacrylate, PMMA) chip was designed using a Carbon Dioxide (CO2) laser machine. The CO2 parameters have influence on the width, depth, roughness of the chip. In order to have regular
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