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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Advanced Geostatistical Techniques for Building 3D Geological Modeling: A Case Study from Cretaceous Reservoir in Bai Hassan Oil Field
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A 3D Geological model was generated using an advanced geostatistical method for the Cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field. In this study, a 3D geological model was built based on data from four wells for the petrophysical property distribution of permeability, porosity, water saturation, and NTG by using Petrel 2021 software. The geological model was divided into a structural model and a property model. The geological structures of the cretaceous reservoir in the Bai Hassan oil field represent elongated anticline folds with two faults, which had been clarified in the 3D Structural model. Thirteen formations represent the Cretaceous reservoir which includes (Shiranish, Mashurah, U.kometan, Kometan Shale, L. Kometan, Gulnen

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Energy Production And Management
Reducing Energy Consumption in Iraqi Campuses with Passive Building Strategies: A Case Study at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering
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University campuses in Iraq are substantial energy consumers, with consumption increasing significantly during periods of high temperatures, underscoring the necessity to enhance their energy performance. Energy simulation tools offer valuable insights into evaluating and improving the energy efficiency of buildings. This study focuses on simulating passive architectural design for three selected buildings at Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering (AKCOE) to examine the effectiveness of their cooling systems. DesignBuilder software was employed, and climatic data for a year in Baghdad was collected to assess the influence of passive architectural strategies on the thermal performance of the targeted buildings. The simulations revealed that the

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Management using the Six Sigma approach to cost rationalization of activities : Application in the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory
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The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Operative Dentistry
Interfacial Bond Strength and Morphology of Sound and Caries-affected Dentin Surfaces Bonded to Two Resin-modified Glass Ionomer Cements
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SUMMARY<sec> <title>Objective

To evaluate the shear bond strength and interfacial morphology of sound and caries-affected dentin (CAD) bonded to two resin-modified glass ionomer cements (RMGICs) after 24 hours and two months of storage in simulated body fluid at 37°C.

Methods and Materials

Sixty-four permanent human mandibular first molars (32 sound and 32 with occlusal caries, following the International Caries Detection and Assessment System) were selected. Each prepared substrate (sound and CAD) was co

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Directorial Vision and its Relation to Scenographic Proposal in the Iraqi Theater Show- The Play of Darkness -A Model: رامي سامح زكي
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The increase of the scenographic designer role on account of the character of the director in the Iraqi theater constituted a clear phenomenon that has been manifested in many shows, which necessitated a stance on the nature of this relation and delimiting the work space for each one of them inside the theater show. The research focuses on determining the work relation between the directorial vision and the scenographic proposal in the Iraq theater show. The research is divided into four chapters, the first one addressed the methodological framework, where the research problem was stated in the following question (has the scenographic designer been able through his scenographic proposal to remove the director from his position being the

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Mechanical Engineering
Development and Validation of a Free Piston Engine Linear Generator Simulation Model Including Cycle-To-Cycle Variation and Ignition Timing Sub-Models
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 10 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
Hybridization Methodology of ARMA-FIGARCH Model to Examine Gasoline Data in Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Numerical solution for weight reduction model due to health campaigns in Spain
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This paper introduces a non-conventional approach with multi-dimensional random sampling to solve a cocaine abuse model with statistical probability. The mean Latin hypercube finite difference (MLHFD) method is proposed for the first time via hybrid integration of the classical numerical finite difference (FD) formula with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique to create a random distribution for the model parameters which are dependent on time t . The LHS technique gives advantage to MLHFD method to produce fast variation of the parameters’ values via number of multidimensional simulations (100, 1000 and 5000). The generated Latin hypercube sample which is random or non-deterministic in nature is further integrated with the FD method t

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Simulation Technique to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model
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     The paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM),  and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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