The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values
ABSTRACTBackground: In Iraq smoking is a common habit in both the urban and rural areas. There are many respiratory diseases like chronic bronchitis, bronchial carcinoma and emphysema which are related to chronic tobacco smoking.Objectives: To study the effect of tobacco smoking on the respiratory system, to establish a correlation between chronic tobacco smoking and its effects on the parameters which were studied and to create awareness in tobacco smokers about the effects of tobacco on their healthMethod: In this study 100 male subjects, 50 chronic smokers and 50 non- smokers were assessed for their pulmonary function tests by using a computerized spirometer.Results: Almost all their respiratory parameters were significantly reduced.
... Show MoreThe subject of demand on oil derivative has occupied an important position at present time in the daily life context. The fuel of benzene and gas oil and kerosene is one of basic elements of that concern, and on local , regional and international levels. The oil derivatives have played a leading role in determining the course and nature of development since early 1970 to the present time whether in the productive Arab countries or the importing. The researcher set out from the hypothesis that the increase of the local consumer demand on some of the oil derivatives is because of the internal and external factors accompanied by the inability of the productive capability and local production to confront this increase, and the resort
... Show MoreBackground: Assessment of function of the right side of the heart in cases of left ventricular dysfunction has been widely studied but the sensitive and specific echocardiographic parameter to be tested is still a matter of controversy. Right ventricular function is related to left ventricular function by ventricular independence so function of both should be assessed carefully. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of left ventricular systolic dysfunction on right ventricular systolic and diastolic functions and pulmonary pressure using conventional and tissue Doppler echocardiography. Patients and Methods: Sixty patients (39 males and 21 females) with heart failure due to left ventricular systolic dysfunction
... Show MoreBackground: Despite extensive efforts towards its elimination, Hepatitis B virus (HBV) continues to be a major concern, posing risk of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in those infected. Therefore, there is a need for reliable biomarkers to accurately assess the infection. While liver enzymes remain the standard diagnostic tools, the anti-inflammatory and anti-tumor interleukin-37 (IL-37) has emerged as a potential biomarker. Aims: To assess the relationship between serum IL-37 and liver enzymes in HBV patients. Methods: Liver enzymes were measured by Fujifilm’s dry chemistry system (Fuji Dri-Chem), whereas Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) was utilized for determination of IL-37 levels. A total of 100 patients
... Show MoreThe United States government allowed Native Americans to abandon their reservations in the 1950s and 1960s. The historical, social, and cultural backgrounds shaped the forms and themes of works by American Indian writers who urged people to refuse their culture's sense of shame. Moreover, their behavior corresponded with the restoration of individuals to their rituals after disappointment, loss of sense of life, and mental illness performed from the influence of mainstream American society. Among these writers, N. Scott Momaday and Leslie Marmon Silko participate in similar interest in portraying characters caught between indigenous beliefs and white mainstream standards.
The construction of
... Show MoreThe permeability estimates for the uncored wells and a porosity function adopting a modified flow zone index-permeability crossplot are given in this work. The issues with implementing that approach were mostly crossplots, due to the influence of geological heterogeneity, did not show a clear connection (scatter data). Carbonate reservoir flow units may now be identified and characterized using a new approach, which has been formally confirmed. Due to the comparable distribution and flow of clastic and carbonate rock fluids, this zoning method is most effective for reservoirs with significant primary and secondary porosity. The equations and correlations here are more generalizable since they connect these variables by combining cor
... Show MoreWe have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD) to estimate the parameters an
... Show MoreThe main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration
... Show MoreThis research attempts to shed light on a topic that is considered one of the most important topics of HRMs management, which is the Employee centric approach by examining its philosophy and understanding . To achieve the goal, the research relied on the philosophical analytical method, which is one of the approaches used in theoretical studies. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which are the theoretical studies that addressed this entry in the English language and the lack of it in the Arabic language, according to the researcher's knowledge. The research reached a set of recommendations, the most important of which was that this approach needs more research, analysis and study at the practical and th
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