The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Fatigue cracking is the most common distress in road pavement. It is mainly due to the increase in the number of load repetition of vehicles, particularly those with high axle loads, and to the environmental conditions. In this study, four-point bending beam fatigue testing has been used for control and modified mixture under various micro strain levels of (250 μƐ, 400 μƐ, and 750 μƐ) and 5HZ. The main objective of the study is to provide a comparative evaluation of pavement resistance to the phenomenon of fatigue cracking between modified asphalt concrete and conventional asphalt concrete mixes (under the influence of three percentage of Silica fumes 1%, 2%, 3% by the weight of asphalt content), and (chan
... Show MoreThe research deals with the lyrical introduction in the commentary of Tarfa bin al-Abd as a formative system characterized by flexibility and richness of imagination, which achieved a formative treatment and a unique construction within the structures of the structural and semantic language. I dealt with the poetic verses represented by the lyrical introduction as a formative hypothesis, basing its goal on a methodological framework distributed on the problem that was summarized by the following question: Is it possible to look at the poetic pattern within the pre-Islamic poem / hanging blinking as a model, in its plastic dimensions and to identify the stylistic treatment that achieves the formation space within the poetic text. The rese
... Show MoreThe main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration
... Show MoreApplications of quantitative methods, which had been explicit attention during previous period (the last two centuries) is the method of application sales man or traveling salesman method. According to this interest by the actual need for a lot of the production sectors and companies that distribute their products, whether locally made or the imported for customers or other industry sectors where most of the productive sectors and companies distributed always aspired to (increase profits, imports, the production quantity, quantity of exports. etc. ...) this is the part of the other hand, want to behave during the process of distribution routes that achieve the best or the least or most appropriate.
... Show MoreObjecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building chain.
Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol
... Show MoreProject management are still depending on manual exchange of information based on paper documents. Where design drawings drafting by computer-aided design (CAD), but the data needed by project management software can not be extracted directly from CAD, and must be manually entered by the user. The process of calculation and collection of information from drawings and enter in the project management software needs effort and time with the possibility of errors in the transfer and enter of information. This research presents an integrated computer system for building projects where the extraction and import quantities, through the interpretation of AutoCAD drawing with MS Access database of unit costs and productivities for the pricing and
... Show MoreThe weather of Iraq has longer summer season compared with other countries. The ambient temperature during this season reaches over 50 OC which makes the evaporative cooling system suitable for this climate. In present work, the two-stage evaporative cooling system is studied. The first stage is indirect evaporative cooling (IEC) represented by two heat exchangers with the groundwater flow rate (5 L/min). The second stage is direct evaporative cooling (DEC) which represents three pads with groundwater flow rates of (4.5 L/min). The experimental work was conducted in July, August, September, and October in Baghdad. Results showed that overall evaporative efficiency of the system (two coils with three pads each
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