The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Agricultural development occupies an important position in the economies of developing countries, and its role is greater for the Arab countries. The first task is to provide food security for all the population through sustainable development, which includes the investment of available natural resources and employment opportunities for the rural population, As well as the provision of raw materials for agricultural processing in order to increase agricultural exports to reduce the balance of payments deficit. Sustainable development is linked to increased production and improvement, as well as to food security. On the one hand, it has to cope with the increase in population and if it is possible to achieve a surplus allocated for export, a
... Show MoreIn today's cities, it is easy to see large numbers of vacant lands and unused abandoned sites in downtown areas that are not only ugly but also potentially becoming fertile ground for criminal activities that endanger residents and visitors and contribute to the further degradation of neighborhoods,
can provide reuse of spaces Neglected opportunities to reshape the appearance of the city and to improve the city center for its users that the presence of many neglected sites, whether they were abandoned buildings or sites for destroyed buildings in Mosul after the war on ISIS and with large areas amid the urban fabric led to the emergence of the research problem is (lack of urban planning to reactivate abandoned sites within the ci
... Show MoreAbstract:
The achievement of agricultural development provide food security and to form a basis for economic growth and comprehensive social, requires a number of actions to overcome the obstacles and problems facing the development of this economic sector, to make it able to achieve food security and operation of the workforce, and reduce dependence on the outside in the provision of food peripherals, and so it is only available through the highest degree of efficiency and economic mobilization of resources, so most of the developed and developing countries alike seek to achieve sustainable agricultural development tobacco meet the food requirements and good jobs for c
... Show MoreThe disposal of the waste material is the main goal of this investigation by transformation to high-fineness powder and producing self-consolidation concrete (SCC) with less cost and more eco-friendly by reducing the cement weight, taking into consideration the fresh and strength properties. The reference mix design was prepared by adopting the European guide. Five waste materials (clay brick, ceramic, granite tiles, marble tiles, and thermostone blocks) were converted to high-fine particle size distribution and then used as 5, 10, and 15% weight replacements of cement. The improvement in strength properties is more significant when using clay bricks compared to other activated waste
Applications of quantitative methods, which had been explicit attention during previous period (the last two centuries) is the method of application sales man or traveling salesman method. According to this interest by the actual need for a lot of the production sectors and companies that distribute their products, whether locally made or the imported for customers or other industry sectors where most of the productive sectors and companies distributed always aspired to (increase profits, imports, the production quantity, quantity of exports. etc. ...) this is the part of the other hand, want to behave during the process of distribution routes that achieve the best or the least or most appropriate.
... Show MoreBackground:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring
System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap
and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute
appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic
accuracy have been observed if the scores were
applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to
evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado
Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis
in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients, were
included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy
teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010.
Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10)
they were divided into three groups; paediatrics,
child bear
Feature selection algorithms play a big role in machine learning applications. There are several feature selection strategies based on metaheuristic algorithms. In this paper a feature selection strategy based on Modified Artificial Immune System (MAIS) has been proposed. The proposed algorithm exploits the advantages of Artificial Immune System AIS to increase the performance and randomization of features. The experimental results based on NSL-KDD dataset, have showed increasing in performance of accuracy compared with other feature selection algorithms (best first search, correlation and information gain).
In this paper, the Azzallini’s method used to find a weighted distribution derived from the standard Pareto distribution of type I (SPDTI) by inserting the shape parameter (θ) resulting from the above method to cover the period (0, 1] which was neglected by the standard distribution. Thus, the proposed distribution is a modification to the Pareto distribution of the first type, where the probability of the random variable lies within the period The properties of the modified weighted Pareto distribution of the type I (MWPDTI) as the probability density function ,cumulative distribution function, Reliability function , Moment and the hazard function are found. The behaviour of probability density function for MWPDTI distrib
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