The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract Planetary nebulae (PN) represents the short phase in the life of stars with masses (0.89-7) M☉. Several physical processes taking place during the red giant phase of low and intermediates-mass stars. These processes include :1) The regular (early ) wind and the envelope ejection, 2) The thermal pulses during Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB ) phase. In this paper it is briefly discussed how such processes affect the mass range of Planetary Nebulae(PN) nuclei(core) and their evolution, and the PN life time, and fading time for the masses which adopted. The Synthetic model is adopted. The envelope mass of star (MeN ) and transition time (ttr) calculated respectively for the parameter (MeR =1.5,2, 3×10-3 M☉). Another time scale is o
... Show MoreThis paper shews how to estimate the parameter of generalized exponential Rayleigh (GER) distribution by three estimation methods. The first one is maximum likelihood estimator method the second one is moment employing estimation method (MEM), the third one is rank set sampling estimator method (RSSEM)The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. Finally using the mean squares error criterion to compare between these estimation methods to find which of these methods are best to the others
The research aims to determine the mix of production optimization in the case of several conflicting objectives to be achieved at the same time, therefore, discussions dealt with the concept of programming goals and entrances to be resolved and dealt with the general formula for the programming model the goals and finally determine the mix of production optimization using a programming model targets to the default case.
AA wahid, journal mustansiriyah of sports science, 2023
This research concerns the fact of the school garden and how can we tackle this issue. The research starts with a question forwarded to those who are interested in the ministry of education matters; the question is that how is the extent of interest in the school garden project? And how it is activated in the Iraqi Educational Institution program? In addition, the analysis reveals the importance of the school garden since we, as teachers and students, suffer from seeing the view of the trashes, the wastes of school furniture, the stinking water and the weeds and how it is accumulated in the back yard of the school. To add fuel to the fire, the increase in number of the students; year after year. This increase leads to adding more classes
... Show MoreIn this paper, previous studies about Fuzzy regression had been presented. The fuzzy regression is a generalization of the traditional regression model that formulates a fuzzy environment's relationship to independent and dependent variables. All this can be introduced by non-parametric model, as well as a semi-parametric model. Moreover, results obtained from the previous studies and their conclusions were put forward in this context. So, we suggest a novel method of estimation via new weights instead of the old weights and introduce
Paper Type: Review article.
another suggestion based on artificial neural networks.
Abstract:In this paper, some probability characteristics functions (moments, variances,convariance, and spectral density functions) are found depending upon the smallestvariance of the solution of some stochastic Fredholm integral equation contains as aknown function, the sine wave function
Human detection represents a main problem of interest when using video based monitoring. In this paper, artificial neural networks, namely multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) are used to detect humans among different objects in a sequence of frames (images) using classification approach. The classification used is based on the shape of the object instead of depending on the contents of the frame. Initially, background subtraction is depended to extract objects of interest from the frame, then statistical and geometric information are obtained from vertical and horizontal projections of the objects that are detected to stand for the shape of the object. Next to this step, two ty
... Show MoreUltrasonic pulse echo measurements on porous alumina as ceramic
material with porosities ranging from (20-40)% showed effect of volume
fraction of porosity on both thermal and elastic properties. A quadratic relationships, by using a least squares method, is deduced for the dependence of the shear velocity, longitudinal velocity, shear modulus, Young's modulus, bulk modulus, Poisson 's ratio, Debye temperature, specific heat, and thermal conductivity on the total porosity. By these relationships, the thermal and elastic properties results of pore-free alumina were calculated. The elastic properties results of
... Show MorePurpose – The main purpose of this research is to highlight the main role of strategic leadership skills for top managements in accessing to effective management in accordance with the (VUCA Prime) methodology in (VUCA) environment as Miniature virtual environment, which refers to (Volatility), (Uncertainty), (Complexity), and (Ambiguity).
methodology – To achieve the research objective, this study selected the quantitative approach in research design, Questionnaire was used as the main instrument for data collection, the sample comprised the opinion poll (106) individual who functions as a head department. (Structural equation modelling by (Smart Pls3)
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