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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2026
Journal Name
Sustainable Civil Infrastructures
Using a Hybrid Model Combining GRU and Random Forest to Predict Weak Physical Variables in the Fitness of Iraq Stars League Football Players
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Independent government agencies in Iraq / Integrity Commission a model
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The state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Soft Computing And Computer Applications
Enhancing Image Classification Using a Convolutional Neural Network Model
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In recent years, with the rapid development of the current classification system in digital content identification, automatic classification of images has become the most challenging task in the field of computer vision. As can be seen, vision is quite challenging for a system to automatically understand and analyze images, as compared to the vision of humans. Some research papers have been done to address the issue in the low-level current classification system, but the output was restricted only to basic image features. However, similarly, the approaches fail to accurately classify images. For the results expected in this field, such as computer vision, this study proposes a deep learning approach that utilizes a deep learning algorithm.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
The Malaysian Journal Of Nursing
Effectiveness of Play-Based Nursing Interventions on Hand Function in Children with Cerebral Palsy: A Quasi-Experimental Study
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Traditional nursing interventions for children with Cerebral Palsy (CP) often lack active engagement and show limited improvement in motor function. Play interventions involving manipulative activities may better support motor skill development. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of structured play-based nursing interventions on hand motor skills in children with cerebral palsy. Methods: A quasi-experimental pre-test/post-test design with a control group was used. The study was conducted at the Paediatric Welfare Hospital in Baghdad from November 25, 2024, to February 13, 2025. A non-probability sample of 79 children was identified based on the study criteria; of these, 64 children met the eligibility criteria and agreed to particip

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Some Probability Characteristics Functions of the Solution of Stochastic Fredholm Integral Equation Contains a Known Sine Wave Function
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Abstract:In this paper, some probability characteristics functions (moments, variances,convariance, and spectral density functions) are found depending upon the smallestvariance of the solution of some stochastic Fredholm integral equation contains as aknown function, the sine wave function

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Modified alvarado scoring system. How much helpful?
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Background:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic accuracy have been observed if the scores were applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients ,were included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010. Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10) they were divided into three groups; paediatrics, child bearing age females & adult males,. MAS

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Fatigue Behavior of Modified Asphalt Concrete Pavement
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Fatigue cracking is the most common distress in road pavement. It is mainly due to the increase in the number of load repetition of vehicles, particularly those with high axle loads, and to the environmental conditions. In this study, four-point bending beam fatigue testing has been used for control and modified mixture under various micro strain levels of (250 μƐ, 400 μƐ, and 750 μƐ) and 5HZ. The main objective of the study is to provide a comparative evaluation of pavement resistance to the phenomenon of fatigue cracking between modified asphalt concrete and conventional asphalt concrete mixes (under the influence of three percentage of Silica fumes 1%, 2%, 3% by the weight of asphalt content), and (chan

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution Type I (MWPDTI)
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In this paper, the Azzallini’s method used to find a weighted distribution derived from the standard Pareto distribution of type I (SPDTI) by inserting the shape parameter (θ) resulting from the above method to cover the period (0, 1] which was neglected by the standard distribution. Thus, the proposed distribution is a modification to the Pareto distribution of the first type, where the probability of the random variable lies within the period  The properties of the modified weighted Pareto distribution of the type I (MWPDTI) as the probability density function ,cumulative distribution function, Reliability function , Moment and  the hazard function are found. The behaviour of probability density function for MWPDTI distrib

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
MODIFIED ALVARADO SCORING SYSTEM. HOW MUCH HELPFUL?
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Background:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring
System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap
and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute
appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic
accuracy have been observed if the scores were
applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to
evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado
Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis
in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients, were
included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy
teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010.
Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10)
they were divided into three groups; paediatrics,
child bear

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-nahrain Journal Of Science
Colorimetric assay of aspirin using modified method
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In this research, we did this qualitative and quantitative study in order to improve the assay of aspirin colorimetrically using visible spectrophotometer. This method depends on aqueous hydrolysis of aspirin and then treating it with the ferric chloride acidic solution to give violet colored complex with salicylic acid, as a result of aspirin hydrolysis, which has a maximum absorption at 530nm. This procedure was applied to determine the purity of aspirin powder and tablet. The results were approximately comparative so that the linearity was observed in the high value of both correlation coefficient (R= 0.998) and Determination Coefficient or Linearity (R2= 0.996) while the molar absorpitivity was 1.3× 103 mole