The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Building Information Modeling (BIM) is extensively used in the construction industry due to its benefits throughout the Project Life Cycle (PLC). BIM can simulate buildings throughout PLC, detect and resolve problems, and improve building visualization that contributes to the representation of actual project details in the construction stage. BIM contributes to project management promotion by detecting problems that lead to conflicts, cost overruns, and time delays. This work aims to implement an effective BIM for the Iraqi construction projects’ life cycle. The methodology used is a literature review to collect the most important factors contributing to the success of BIM implementation, interview the team of the Cent
... Show Moreهدف البحث إلى وضع رؤية مستقبلية وبناء أنموذج للجامعة المنتجة ، باستخدام أسلوب دلفاي بواقع جولتين إذ عرضت أداة البحث على 30 خبير واعتمدت نسبة 93 %حد أدنى لقبول الفقرة ، واستنتجت الباحثة إن معظم الجامعات لا تتوافر لديها الموارد الكافية وبالتالي فان تبني مفهوم الجامعة المنتجة يمثل أسلوبا مناسبا لواقع التمويل في تلك الجامعات ، إذ أن هناك حاجة ماسة إلى تدعيم مصادر تمويل التعليم الجامعي بموارد إنتاجية تحصل منها الجا
... Show MoreAutism is considered as one of the most developmental problems in the world that interfere with children growth and affect their social ,emotional and cognitive development child with autism used to be normal in his growth but in his development parents started to notice that their child characterize by loneliness and withdrawal himself from the surrounding world with some mannerism behaviors these characteristics used to be manifested children during the 1st three year of their life . It appears, one in every 500 birth (The American International Institution for child health 1997. and it would be less in females than makes at 1/4 percent .
Aim is to b
... Show MoreThis research includes the principles of the democracy، and to which extent it can contribute in establishing these principles. Democracy is not only to hold parliamentary or presidential elections but also the result of these elections wills it lead to the emergence of an integrated regime that can actually expresses the citizen's rights and to which extent those citizens can contribute in that regime and control it. Since 2005، when the first elections took place in Iraq after the US occupation of Iraq 2003، Iraqi people are looking to a rule that represented them and achieve their interests after getting rid of the totalitarian regimes and establishing an institutional regime that work by democratic means in order to achieve the so
... Show MoreDue to the increasing number of people with in Iraq, it has become necessary to treat seriously this problem, which was not considered significantly to the best of researcher knowledge. Thus, the current research aims to construct a scale to measure the physical down syndromes, which distinguish them from others. It consisted of (39) items. The researcher has presented some related literature that addressed the current problem
Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building chain.
Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol
... Show MoreThis research proposes the application of the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms to enhance estimates generated by the Fama-MacBeth model and compares their performance in this context for the first time. To specifically improve the dragonfly algorithm's effectiveness, three parameter tuning approaches are investigated: manual parameter tuning (MPT), adaptive tuning by methodology (ATY), and a novel technique called adaptive tuning by performance (APT). Additionally, the study evaluates the estimation performance using kernel weighted regression (KWR) and explores how the dragonfly and fruit fly algorithms can be employed to enhance KWR. All methods are tested using data from the Iraq Stock Exchange, based on the Fama-French three-f
... Show MoreAbstract Planetary nebulae (PN) represents the short phase in the life of stars with masses (0.89-7) M☉. Several physical processes taking place during the red giant phase of low and intermediates-mass stars. These processes include :1) The regular (early ) wind and the envelope ejection, 2) The thermal pulses during Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB ) phase. In this paper it is briefly discussed how such processes affect the mass range of Planetary Nebulae(PN) nuclei(core) and their evolution, and the PN life time, and fading time for the masses which adopted. The Synthetic model is adopted. The envelope mass of star (MeN ) and transition time (ttr) calculated respectively for the parameter (MeR =1.5,2, 3×10-3 M☉). Another time scale is o
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the mix of production optimization in the case of several conflicting objectives to be achieved at the same time, therefore, discussions dealt with the concept of programming goals and entrances to be resolved and dealt with the general formula for the programming model the goals and finally determine the mix of production optimization using a programming model targets to the default case.
ABSTRACT: Ultimate bearing capacity of soft ground reinforced with stone column was recently predicted using various artificial intelligence technologies such as artificial neural network because of all the advantages that they can offer in minimizing time, effort and cost. As well as, most of applied theories or predicted formulas deduced analytically from previous studies were feasible only for a particular testing environment and do not match other field or laboratory datasets. However, the performance of such techniques depends largely on input parameters that really affect the target output and missing of any parameter can lead to inaccurate results and give a false indicator. In the current study, data were collected from previous rel
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