The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
This deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values
ABSTRACTBackground: In Iraq smoking is a common habit in both the urban and rural areas. There are many respiratory diseases like chronic bronchitis, bronchial carcinoma and emphysema which are related to chronic tobacco smoking.Objectives: To study the effect of tobacco smoking on the respiratory system, to establish a correlation between chronic tobacco smoking and its effects on the parameters which were studied and to create awareness in tobacco smokers about the effects of tobacco on their healthMethod: In this study 100 male subjects, 50 chronic smokers and 50 non- smokers were assessed for their pulmonary function tests by using a computerized spirometer.Results: Almost all their respiratory parameters were significantly reduced.
... Show MoreThe subject of demand on oil derivative has occupied an important position at present time in the daily life context. The fuel of benzene and gas oil and kerosene is one of basic elements of that concern, and on local , regional and international levels. The oil derivatives have played a leading role in determining the course and nature of development since early 1970 to the present time whether in the productive Arab countries or the importing. The researcher set out from the hypothesis that the increase of the local consumer demand on some of the oil derivatives is because of the internal and external factors accompanied by the inability of the productive capability and local production to confront this increase, and the resort
... Show MoreNever the less, banking compliance function became one of the most important functions in banking sector according to its characteristics that considered as an interior control tools to control (executive management, departments, subsidiaries…etc) in any bank; and their compliance towards applying rules, recommendations and legislations. In addition to, estimating the risks and limited them; and controlling the anti-money laundering. Thus, these functions that covered the main concept of (Banking Compliance) would avoid the bank to be under the control of any sanctions.
In this research, we did this qualitative and quantitative study in order to improve the assay of aspirin colorimetrically using visible spectrophotometer. This method depends on aqueous hydrolysis of aspirin and then treating it with the ferric chloride acidic solution to give violet colored complex with salicylic acid, as a result of aspirin hydrolysis, which has a maximum absorption at 530nm. This procedure was applied to determine the purity of aspirin powder and tablet. The results were approximately comparative so that the linearity was observed in the high value of both correlation coefficient (R= 0.998) and Determination Coefficient or Linearity (R2= 0.996) while the molar absorpitivity was 1.3× 103 mole
Background:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring
System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap
and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute
appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic
accuracy have been observed if the scores were
applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to
evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado
Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis
in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients, were
included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy
teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010.
Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10)
they were divided into three groups; paediatrics,
child bear
The important aspect of this unconventional approach is that eco-friendly, commercially available and straight forward method was used to prepared Silver Nanoparticles by using AgNO3 and curcumin solution as agent factor. The (TEM), (XRD), and (FTIR) was used to characterise these silver nanoparticles (AgNPs). Two types of bacterial isolates were used to indicate the antibacterial activity silver nanoparticles which prepared by curcumin solution, Gram negative like (Escherichia Coli E. Coli), & Gram positive (Stapha Urous). The results exhibit that silver nanoparticles synthesized by curcumin solution has effective antibacterial activities.
Background:-The Modified Alvarado Scoring System (MASS) has been reported to be a cheap and quick diagnostic tool in patients with acute appendicitis. However, differences in diagnostic accuracy have been observed if the scores were applied to various populations and clinical settings.
Objectives:- The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of Modified Alvarado Scoring System in patients with acute appendicitis in our setting.
Methods:-one hundre twenty eight patients ,were included in this study, admitted to Al-Kindy teaching hospital from June 2009 to June 2010. Patients’ age ranged from 8 to 56 years (21±10) they were divided into three groups; paediatrics, child bearing age females & adult males,. MAS
In this paper, the Azzallini’s method used to find a weighted distribution derived from the standard Pareto distribution of type I (SPDTI) by inserting the shape parameter (θ) resulting from the above method to cover the period (0, 1] which was neglected by the standard distribution. Thus, the proposed distribution is a modification to the Pareto distribution of the first type, where the probability of the random variable lies within the period The properties of the modified weighted Pareto distribution of the type I (MWPDTI) as the probability density function ,cumulative distribution function, Reliability function , Moment and the hazard function are found. The behaviour of probability density function for MWPDTI distrib
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