The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The paper shows how to estimate the three parameters of the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution by utilizing the three estimation methods, namely, the moment employing estimation method (MEM), ordinary least squares estimation method (OLSEM), and maximum entropy estimation method (MEEM). The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for the generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. In order to find the best method, we use the mean squares error criterion. Finally, in order to extract the experimental results, one of object oriented programming languages visual basic. net was used
We have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD) to estimate the parameters an
... Show MoreThis study aims to derive a sustainable human development index for the Arab countries by using the principal components analysis, which can help in reducing the number of data in the case of multiple variables. This can be relied upon in the interpretation and tracking sustainable human development in the Arab countries in the view of the multiplicity of sustainable human development indicators and its huge data, beside the heterogeneity of countries in a range of characteristics associated with indicators of sustainable human development such as area, population, and economic activity. The study attempted to use the available data to the selected Arab countries for the recent years. This study concluded that a single inde
... Show MoreThe rubber ropes exercises affected muscle groups, which in turn affects the corners of the conditions of the body before and over the barrier where affected the time passed. To change the angle of the approaching and payment impact on passing each times the barrier 1-5. That passed over the barrier 1and gate 5 impacts on the nature of the achievement, where time has become less. Find the values of cruise missiles and other phases and stages of pitch angle other categories which it enshrines stood as compelling rejection men's 110m hurdles. Find the value of the instant messaging distances between different barriers and stages. Studies by adding rubber sling barriers race categories, measurement of kinematic variables. Emphasis on the devel
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to examine the discharge capacity of the reach of the Tigris River between Kut and Amarah Barrages of 250km in length. The examination includes simulation the current capacity of the reach by using HEC-RAS model. 247cross sections surveyed in 2012 were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated using observed discharges of 533, 800, 1025 and 3000m3/s discharged at Kut Barrage during 2013, 1995, 1995 and 1988, respectively, and its related water level at three gauge stations located along the reach. The result of calibration process indicated that the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 0.095 can be obtained when using Manning’s n coefficient of 0.026, 0.03 for th
... Show MoreThe skill high-jump scoring is based on mechanical and physical abilities. The most important of all is the strength used by the player from the moment of preparation to the moment of scoring, which led the researchers to study the characteristics of the series of power chain functions of this skill according to (Biosyn System) The players of the national team's back line have a handball to find out the relationship between the properties of the power chain curve and the accuracy of the high jump to the upper and lower target angles. The aim of the research was to identify the values of the Force Series variables for the skill of the high-jump curve of the handball as well as the relationship between the properties of the power chain functi
... Show MoreThe main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration
... Show MoreThe objective of the present study is to determine the nature and direction of the correlation between mathematical excellence and learning styles as defined by the Entwistle, model in fifth-grade scientific female students. The descriptive correlational approach was implemented by the two researchers to accomplish the research objectives. A scale was developed to assess the learning styles of female students in the sample in accordance with the Entwistle, model. : (Knowledge, understanding, application, analysis, synthesis, evaluation, systematic thinking, creativity), and the research community was determined by the female students of the scientific fifth grade in the morning preparatory and secondary schools of the General Direct
... Show MoreThis work aims to detect the associations of C-peptide and the homeostasis model assessment of beta-cells function (HOMA2-B%) with inflammatory biomarkers in pregnant-women in comparison with non-pregnant women. Sera of 28 normal pregnant women at late pregnancy versus 27 matched age non-pregnant women (control), were used to estimate C-peptide, triiodothyronine (T3), and thyroxin (T4) by Enzyme-linked-immunosorbent assay (ELISA), fasting blood sugar (FBS) by automatic analyzer Biolis 24i, hematology-tests by hematology analyzer and the calculation of HOMA2-B% and homeostasis model assessment of insulin sensitivity (HOMA2-S%) by using C-peptide values instead of insulin. The comparisons, correlations, regression analysis tests were perfo
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