The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this paper, the dynamics of scavenger species predation of both susceptible and infected prey at different rates with prey refuge is mathematically proposed and studied. It is supposed that the disease was spread by direct contact between susceptible prey with infected prey described by Holling type-II infection function. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution are investigated. The stability constraints of all equilibrium points are determined. In addition to establishing some sufficient conditions for global stability of them by using suitable Lyapunov functions. Finally, these theoretical results are shown and verified with numerical simulations.
The purpose of this study is to show the constants and variables geography in Russian
policy in light of variables geostrategic witnessed by the world, especially after the collapse
of the Soviet Union and the disintegration to fifteen Republic became the Russian Federation
and the heir to the Soviet Union, Geography particularly important because the impact of its
data in policy making less change ofothers, and explain the political choices cannot achieve
security through its relationship constants geographical (natural or human) paint forms of
economic activity and determine the points they national security. issue is the geographical
this or that country is determined by its policy also specifies the way in which
CD40 is a type 1 transmembrane protein composed of 277 amino acids, and it belongs to the tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR) superfamily. It is expressed in a variety of cell types, including normal B cells, macrophages, dendritic cells, and endothelial cells, as a costimulatory molecule. This study aims to summarize the CD40 polymorphism effect and its susceptibility to immune-related disorders. The CD40 gene polymorphisms showed a significant association with different immune-related disorders and act as a risk factor for increased susceptibility to these diseases.
This paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient
Often times, especially in practical applications, it is difficult to obtain data that is not tainted by a problem that may be related to the inconsistency of the variance of error or any other problem that impedes the use of the usual methods represented by the method of the ordinary least squares (OLS), To find the capabilities of the features of the multiple linear models, This is why many statisticians resort to the use of estimates by immune methods Especially with the presence of outliers, as well as the problem of error Variance instability, Two methods of horsepower were adopted, they are the robust weighted least square(RWLS)& the two-step robust weighted least square method(TSRWLS), and their performance was verifie
... Show MoreNutrient agar medium with various concentrations of cefotaxime was used for isolation spontaneous mutants from wild type strain of P.aeruginosa PHA-1. Eighty-two mutants were successfully isolated with the viable count 52×107 , these mutants were confirmed as spontaneous not physiological adaption mutants by reculture on the same medium. Then, wild type PHA-1 and mutants were examined for production pyocyanin; a blue greenish pigment was clearly noticed on King A medium. Remarkably the mutant strain named S300-8 was distinguished in productivity in comparison with wild type strain PHA-1; the amount of pigment was 56.0667mg/l and 74.53mg/l respectively. In addition, pyocyanin produced by mutant strain S300-8 revealed a potent efficacy again
... Show MoreBackground: The purposes of this study were to determine the photogrammetric soft tissue facial profile measurements for Iraqi adults sample with class I normal occlusion using Standardized photographic techniques and to verify the existence of possible gender differences. Materials and methods: Eighty Iraqi adult subjects (40 males and 40 females) with an age ranged between 18-25 years having class I normal occlusion were chosen for this study. Each individual was subjected to clinical examination and digital standardized right side photographic records were taken in the natural head position which is mirror position which the patient looking straight into his eyes into the mirror mounted on the stand. The photographs were analyzed using A
... Show MoreThe mobile phone is widespread all over the world. This technology is one of the most widespread with more than five billion subscriptions making people describe this interaction system as Wireless Intelligence. Mobile phone networks become the focus of attention of researchers, organizations and governments due to its penetration in all life fields. Analyzing mobile phone traces allows describing human mobility with accuracy as never done before. The main objective in this contribution is to represent the people density in specific regions at specific duration of time according to raw data (mobile phone traces). This type of spatio-temporal data named CDR (Call Data Records), which have properties of the time and spatial indications for th
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