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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Traditional and molecular methods for diagnosing bacterial meningitis in Erbil city, Iraq
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Bacterial meningitis is a leading cause of illness and death worldwide. It is crucial for clinical and public health care, as well as disease control, to identify the meningitis-causing agent promptly. Between June 2021-February 2022, a total of 100 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples were collected from suspected cases of meningitis admitted to Raparin Paediatric Teaching Hospital, Erbil city-Iraq. Cytochemical, cultural, and biochemical tests were conducted, and confirmed by molecular techniques. Bacterial culture findings were positive in 7% of CSF samples and just one positive among blood samples. The most common pathogens found by cultural characteristics and VITEK 2 Compact System were Staphylococcus sciuri in two

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Biology Textbook for Scientific Sixth Class in Iraq (A Comparative Study)
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The textbook is the primary means of creativity and thinking, which has a major role in the development of the readership and mental abilities of the student. It is the basic tool in education in Iraq for the teacher and the student, which cannot be dispensed in any educational program. The current study aimed at the book of the biology of the sixth grade of science in Iraq (comparative study). It was compared to the book of biology for the twelve grade in the Kingdom of Jordan to identify the ratio of similarity and differences between them, in addition, to identify the weaknesses in the Iraq curriculum and developing appropriate solutions and suggestions to address them. The sample was represented with books of biology (six-science cla

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 19 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Rentierism effect on the democratic choice of the state In Iraq after 2003
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The linguistic meaning of the verse in the Arabic dictionaries applies very much to the reality of rent and its effect. This is true of economic growth as a continuous increase in real per capita income in addition to the same thing. Therefore, development does not necessarily achieve a comprehensive and structural increase of the various economic sectors. As the rent came in the sense of a terrible land open Maim any fertilized. And the camel is a ma'aya and a ra'i: that is, it goes in the pasture and returns itself. This is similar to the extraction of oil after it is ready for investment and earn its revenue as soon as it exists or is extracted by external parties. If the rent is first linked to agriculture, especially the fertile lan

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Historical Succession of Equal Rain Lines in Iraq: سالار علي خضر الدزيي
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The current research focuses on examining the isohyets in a set of (3) climatic maps of Iraq. Two of these maps were published in the Iraq Climate Atlas and the third one was published in an English source about the geography of Iraq. The first map represents the period from 1923-to-1944, the second is for the period from 1961-to-1990, whereas the third represents the period from 1971-to-2000. Comparing among these three maps, it has become clear that there are noticeable changes of rain in Iraq. In the first map, which represents the decade of the twenties, thirties and early forties, Iraq was located between two Isohyet lines (127 mm) in the far south and (1270 mm) in the far north. As for the second map, which represents the sixties,

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The evaluation of the procedures of excution the national strategy of unti - corruption in Iraq (2014-2010)
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    Corruption has become the subject of great interest, and the subject of research and scrutiny in recent years, because of its penetration in all fields of life,  whether these fields are political, economic, social, and administrative. It is one of the biggest challenges and problems that are facing communities. Therefore, this study is focused on the evaluation of measures implementing the national strategy to combat corruption in Iraq.

This study was launched, first because of its intellectual dimensions to ensure a conceptual presentation of the strategy and operational management in general with a special focus on the processes of implementation and control str

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jul 20 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education
العدل الإلهي في العراق القديم من خلال نصوص مختارة دراسة تاريخية
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شغلت نظرية العدل الإلهي بال الأديب العراقي القديم، مما جعلته يثير عبر نصوصه الأدبية كثير من التساؤلات حول عدالة الإلهة، التي يعبدها ويقدم لها الهدايا وتساؤلاته هذه دفعت بالباحث إلى اختيارها عنوانا لموضوعه، إلا أن الدراسة ستختصر على نصوص معينة، والسبب في ذلك أنها كانت الرائدة في هذا الجانب، وفي اللحظة التي ينتقي فيها العدل الإلهي وتتحول الإلهة إلى كلاب تلهث وراء غرائزها، ذهبنا وراء الأسباب التي قادت إلى فقد

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
“The constitutional- political structures in Iraq after 2003”
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It is obvious that the constitutional- political structures which has been emerged in Iraq after the occupation in 2003 frame worked by many sectarian, ethnic, tribal and political orientations, pushing forewords to escalating the contradictions between social- political powers, however, these changes unfortunately result not just destroy and taking apart the political regime and his authority, but the state and his institutions as well, although, did not stamped as wise and rational change for better future to new Iraq and its political, civil and military institutions. Finally, as quick as Iraq start to bisects to sectarian, ethnic and national components according to the new political – social components of Iraq. Indeed, what is req

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal Of Veterinary Medicine
Isolation and Molecular Identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacterium from Different Species of Fish in Karbala Province, Iraq
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This study was designed for isolation and molecular identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacterium (NTM) from fish during the period between October and December 2017 from Karbla province, Iraq. This study included 200 fresh fish samples from four different species including Spondyliosoma cantharus, Liza abu, Carassius carassius and Cyprinuscarpio. Three samples of each fish were taken including gills, muscles and all internal organs. The samples were processed by decontamination, concentration of 4% sodium hydroxide, and 0.1 ml of sediment was streaking on Löwenstein Johnson (LJ) media; then the bacterial cultures were incubated at 28-30 °C for 3days up to 4 weeks and suspected colonies were stained with acid fast stain to confir

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2024
Journal Name
مؤتمر
استراتيجية الأمن السيبراني ودورها في تحقيق أهداف التنمية المستدامة: العراق انموذجاً
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
المجلة القانونية العلمية المحكمة
الدور القانوني للحوافز الضريبية في تحقيق التراكم الراسمالي(العراق ومصر انموذجا)
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