يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Bacterial meningitis is a leading cause of illness and death worldwide. It is crucial for clinical and public health care, as well as disease control, to identify the meningitis-causing agent promptly. Between June 2021-February 2022, a total of 100 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood samples were collected from suspected cases of meningitis admitted to Raparin Paediatric Teaching Hospital, Erbil city-Iraq. Cytochemical, cultural, and biochemical tests were conducted, and confirmed by molecular techniques. Bacterial culture findings were positive in 7% of CSF samples and just one positive among blood samples. The most common pathogens found by cultural characteristics and VITEK 2 Compact System were Staphylococcus sciuri in two
... Show MoreIt is obvious that the constitutional- political structures which has been emerged in Iraq after the occupation in 2003 frame worked by many sectarian, ethnic, tribal and political orientations, pushing forewords to escalating the contradictions between social- political powers, however, these changes unfortunately result not just destroy and taking apart the political regime and his authority, but the state and his institutions as well, although, did not stamped as wise and rational change for better future to new Iraq and its political, civil and military institutions. Finally, as quick as Iraq start to bisects to sectarian, ethnic and national components according to the new political – social components of Iraq. Indeed, what is req
... Show MoreEconomic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.
The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance
... Show MoreThe linguistic meaning of the verse in the Arabic dictionaries applies very much to the reality of rent and its effect. This is true of economic growth as a continuous increase in real per capita income in addition to the same thing. Therefore, development does not necessarily achieve a comprehensive and structural increase of the various economic sectors. As the rent came in the sense of a terrible land open Maim any fertilized. And the camel is a ma'aya and a ra'i: that is, it goes in the pasture and returns itself. This is similar to the extraction of oil after it is ready for investment and earn its revenue as soon as it exists or is extracted by external parties. If the rent is first linked to agriculture, especially the fertile lan
... Show MoreHighlights This research highlights the important topic of musical topics that rarely talk about a musician, an issue of national songs which sang since the founding of the Iraqi state and until the end of the monarchy in Iraq, and wrote about just newspaper articles explaining the political situation experienced by the era of the history of Iraq and passing quickly marginally on the songs and patrons, so you see the researcher need to search for what was published around any way to see the texts of songs and melodies and rhythms and thus the possibility of evaluation, linked with the course of social and political life spiraling events at the time, so as not to miss these musical and literary, artistic and cultural features of forever a
... Show MoreThe electric energy is one of the most important renewable energies used in the world as it is the main source for sustainable development and economic development through its use in (production, transport and distribution), and in Iraq, the electric power sector has suffered from many problems and obstacles, as providing electric current is one of the most prominent difficulties and challenges That successive governments and residents have faced since the early nineties of the last century and are still ongoing, and that Iraq has all the climatic conditions for developing the work of the electricity system from renewable energies such as solar and hydroelectric energy, as well as gas fields that have become a Basic pillar of pow
... Show MoreThe advertisement is important in maximizing the resources of journalistic institutions. It helps them to perform their duties and also establishes their independence. However, this type of communication has often overlapped with other types of communication, including media and publicity.
Those in charge of the press bear responsibility in this regard, as some of them harness the advertisement for personal purposes; or detrimental to media content. Many communication authorities have drawn attention to the danger of confusing the concepts and levels of the three activities and have moved towards establishing rules to reduce overlap between them.
The aim of this research is to try to disengage the concept of advertising,
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the means and forms of interactive communication concerning Iraqi topics on the websites of global radio stations, namely Sawa and Monte Carlo. It also seeks to uncover the editorial and artistic interactions related to Iraqi topics on the selected websites chosen as the research sample, comparing them with the editorial interaction within the Iraqi context between the Radio Monte Carlo and Sawa websites.
The research yields several conclusions, including the following:
Iraqis focus their interaction with topics related to Iraq on Facebook for both Radio Monte Carlo and Sawa; Arabs show higher levels of interaction on Twitter with Radio Monte Carlo; Participants on the webs
This article briefly analyzing contemporary works appeared in theater writer from Latin America, which comes within the theme of "power." Latin American Literature, such as two-way extremely clear: the vanguard of social and attention, have arrived at certain moments to some extent be regarded as a two-way rival. That desire to participate in the revolution of expression and artistic significance, has appeared evident in the literature of Latin America in the late nineteenth century and ended in the third decade of the twentieth century. The writers that stage would prefer not to serve the objectives of the revolution of Arts own but the objectives of social and political revolution that stimulate the world. These acts were issued
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