يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Incremental forming is a flexible sheet metal forming process which is performed by utilizing simple tools to locally deform a sheet of metal along a predefined tool path without using of dies. This work presents the single point incremental forming process for producing pyramid geometry and studies the effect of tool geometry, tool diameter, and spindle speed on the residual stresses. The residual stresses were measured by ORIONRKS 6000 test measuring instrument. This instrument was used with four angles of (0º,15º,30º, and 45º) and the average value of residual stresses was determined, the value of the residual stress in the original blanks was (10.626 MPa). The X-ray diffraction technology was used to measure the residual stresses
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The research aims to determine the nature of the Iraqi market in terms of banking financial stability and the extent impact of the operational efficiency on it, Accordingly, chosen 15 relational banks were chosen as an intentional sample that could represent the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010-2020. The operational efficiency variable was measured according to the data envelope model, and banking financial stability used CAMELS model which includes five indicators (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profitability, and liquidity), so for testing the research hypotheses used the random regression model by adopting the S
... Show MoreThis research aims to clarify the advantages of statistical sampling method and provided the scientific basis of the auditor was able to defend the future of any objection to the validity of his opinion on the financial statements of the restrictions of personal rule as much as possible during the stages of the general Company for Cotton industries.Aresearc An applied study in the Board of supreme Audit (the accounts of the cotton industry), have been used, a researcher at the theoretical side to achieve the objectives of the research methodology descriptive inference in the collection and analysis of financial statements of the circle (sample) for the financial year (2008). To achieve the objectives of the field study was designed
... Show MoreThe subject of this thesis acquired it's importance from many sides most
important of it , it's the nature of the relationship between Iraq-Syria relation
itself . which is basic on many close and fare relationship between them upon
the history , and also the changes that happened in global and regional area
after the 11th September 2001 and the changes of the American strategy upon
Syria , and the trying of the united states to qualify the Syrian role inside its
regional in the meddle east upon the changes that imposing by the united
states which is the most important event was the occupation of Iraq .
The importance of this subject is also due to the occupation of the united
states upon the Iraq on April 2003
الاوضاع العامة ليهود العراق قبل الهجرة القانونية
Multi-nationalities companies are the main companies in the progressed
countries that improve the current technology and, thus, become the main source of it.
These companies, in the first place, aim to increase the profits of its
investments to satisfy stock holders in the original countries to which these companies
belong.
It is a mean to interfere in the economic of countries especially the growing
ones and exploit their important natural resources. Since this research focus on the
dangers of these companies, mechanism of its work and its dangers on the most
important natural resources of our country which is oil; therefore, the research
confirm that this important natural treasure must be under an Iraqi cont
Continuous conflict between Parisian and Ottoman states the results that Iraq became as
aground for their battles which leads to their own interests in Iraq which are shape their
strategy. The conflict continues for long time. In spite of, they signed many treatments and
protocols between the two sides, as Arzarom treaty , the first and the second, Tahran protocols
, and Astana protocol. This conflict, no sides of them to dose any part of their land, but these
treaties leaded to a big loss to Iraq ,which lost parts of it's land and water area in Ahwaz and
shatt AL-Arab, so, Iraq became as a smoth target for their interests, and lost its
sovereignty,and lost self-govern of the country country . so the research conclud
شيعة العراق وقضية القومية العربية قبيل الاستقلال
العراق وسياسة حسن الجوار تجاه تركيا
One of the most critical functions of the government is the devising and planning for the Public Budget for the coming years. Studying any budget of any given state would directly reflect on its intentions and collective direction during a certain time span. Since all allocations represent the government's agenda and time plan for coming years. And the size of each allocation would measure the priority of each budgetary item. Because of the eminent importance of the public budget planning in Iraq, a country of abundant riches and human resources that flow in the national economy, we present this research that would cover the resources versus expenditures of Iraq's public budget endured by the government to sustain its various sec
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