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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparison of Allele Frequency of Uromodulin Gene rs13333226 and rs13333144 in a Sample of Iraqi Patients on Dialysis

      Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health concern around the world. UMOD gene variants are linked to a higher incidence of hypertension and CKD in the general population. This study aimed to investigate the role of uromodulin rs13333226 and rs13333144 genes association with chronic kidney disease.The study samples were divided into two groups. The first group included 100patient samples and 70 chosen among them were under the dialysis and had kidney failure aged between 18-88 years old. The second group included 30 samples from healthy individuals who were used as a control. One of the ways used to identify the genotype is the tetra-primers amplification refractory mutation system–polymerase chain reaction (ARMS

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Aneurysmal bone cyst of the lateral end of clavicle in a twelfth year old girl Case study

Introduction: An aneurysmal bone cyst are enigmatic lesion of unknown cause and presentation and are difficult to distinguish from other lesions, it is a benign, but expansible tumor like lesion that generally occurs in the long bones. An aneurysmal bone cyst arising from the flat bone like clavicle is rare . Case presentation: We report a 12-year-old girl child with an aneurysmal bone cyst of the lateral third of left clavicle treated with enblock resection. The pathologic findings confirmed the diagnosis of aneurysmal bone cyst. The patient has been followed up for one year with no evidence of recurrence . Conclusion: En bloc resection can be curative and provide good results for this rare type of clavicle tumour.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Aneurysmal bone cyst of the lateral end of clavicle in a twelfth year old girl Case study

Introduction: An aneurysmal bone cyst are enigmatic lesionof unknown cause and presentation and are difficult todistinguish from other lesions, it is a benign, but expansibletumor like lesion that generally occurs in the long bones. Ananeurysmal bone cyst arising from the flat bone like clavicleis rare .Case presentation: We report a 12-year-old girl child with ananeurysmal bone cyst of the lateral third of left clavicletreated with enblock resection. The pathologic findingsconfirmed the diagnosis of aneurysmal bone cyst. Thepatient has been followed up for one year with no evidenceof recurrence .Conclusion: En bloc resection can be curative and provide good results for this rare type of clavicle tumour.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Some Methods for Estimating the Scheff'e Model of the Mixture

Because of the experience of the mixture problem of high correlation and the existence of linear MultiCollinearity between the explanatory variables, because of the constraint of the unit and the interactions between them in the model, which increases the existence of links between the explanatory variables and this is illustrated by the variance inflation vector (VIF), L-Pseudo component to reduce the bond between the components of the mixture.

    To estimate the parameters of the mixture model, we used in our research the use of methods that increase bias and reduce variance, such as the Ridge Regression Method and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method a

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
A Vision to Develop the Effectiveness of the Dissemination of Innovations to Rationalize the Use of Irrigation Water in Iraqi Agriculture
Abstract<p>Iraqi agriculture faces a major water problem, affecting cultivated areas, agricultural production, farmers’ incomes and food security. However, the results achieved in rationalizing the use of irrigation water are still limited and do not match what they should be in order to meet this serious challenge. The study aimed to provide a vision for the development of the effectiveness of the dissemination of innovations to rationalize the use of irrigation water in Iraqi agriculture. In light of the framework of the dissemination of agricultural innovations, factors related to their effectiveness, and the summary of the Iraqi experience in the field of dissemination of modern irrigation</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Study for the Informal Settlement Supposed to Be Distributed by the Iraq Government for Poor People in Baghdad City - Republic of Iraq

This paper set forth the spatial suitability of the informal settlement supposed to be distributed by the Iraqis government to poor people. The Iraqi government identified 9 locations of informal settlement in Baghdad city and acceptance it as a reality as a help for them to getting home. In this paper I discovered the suitability of those locations which one will be suitable more than others for living. The analysis process was applied using the GIS environment – spatial analysis. According to the results, It has been identified as the most important measures to identify which one of these areas suitable for development for housing by using some criteria (Distance from the city center, Proximity from transport routes, Proximity of high v

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Administrative protection of young people in Iraq Comparative study with the United Arab Emirates

Because of what Iraq faced in the last quarter of the last century of wars and military conflicts and the aftermath of the economic blockade, as well as the recent occupation suffered by Iraq in the contemporary century, which culminated in lawlessness and the spread of terrorism and the most prominent on the Iraqi street manifestations not prepared before paved to the aggravation and collapse in the community system As a result of the political and social changes, all this highlighted the need for public facilities specialized in social protection for young people to provide all the new requirements, and the find a legal system commensurate with the circumstances and circumstances.

In light of the current challenges, the State h

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)

 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 24 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Comparison of familial and sporadic multiple sclerosis in Iraqi patients

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the increasing prevalent neurologic disorders. Epidemiologic and family studies implicate genetic and environmental factors in determining
susceptibility to MS. The exact effect of the former is intended for investigation in our study.
Objectives: The objective of the study is to compare the demographic features, clinical presenting features, and clinical course between familial and sporadic cases of MS.
Materials and Methods: this is a retrospective cohort study conducted in Multiple Sclerosis Center in the Medical City in Baghdad. The records of the MS center in Baghdad Teaching Hospital were surveyed, and data from 13 patients with positive family history of MS

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Comparison of familial and sporadic multiple sclerosis in Iraqi patients

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the increasing prevalent neurologic disorders. Epidemiologic and family studies implicate genetic and environmental factors in determining
susceptibility to MS. The exact effect of the former is intended for investigation in our study.
Objectives: The objective of the study is to compare the demographic features, clinical presenting features, and clinical course between familial and sporadic cases of MS.
Materials and Methods: this is a retrospective cohort study conducted in Multiple Sclerosis Center in the Medical City in Baghdad. The records of the MS center in Baghdad Teaching Hospital were surveyed, and data from 13 patients with positive family history of MS

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