Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
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This study aims to identify the social and psychological abuse towards elderly people by others, to identify the difference of social and psychological abuse towards elderly by others according to the variable of gender (male and female). Additionally, to identify the difference of social and psychological abuse towards elderly by determining the one who is responsible of abusing (son, daughter, spouse, etc.). To achieve this aim, the researcher designed a scale to identify the social and psychological abuse towards elderly by others. The results showed that this sample exposed to psychological abuse by different sides due to lacking of powers. Besides, the result showed that there are no signifi
... Show MoreThis research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
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The logistic regression model of the most important regression models a non-linear which aim getting estimators have a high of efficiency, taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis for being a models appropriate form of Binary Data.
Among the problems that appear as a result of the use of some statistical methods I
... Show Moreدُرِست العوامل المؤثرة في عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد، وتكونت عينة الدراسة من (365) مشاهدة يومية لعام 2018، وتمثلت بستة متغيرات استعملت في الدراسة. كان الهدف الرئيس هو دراسة العلاقة بين هذه المتغيرات، وتقدير تأثيرات المتغيرات التنبؤية في المتغير التابع (عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد). ولتحقيق ذلك استعملت نمذجة المعادلات الهيكلية/ تحليل المسار وبرنامج AMOS
... Show MoreThis paper critically looks at the studies that investigated the Social Network Sites in the Arab region asking whether they made a practical addition to the field of information and communication sciences or not. The study tried to lift the ambiguity of the variety of names, as well as the most important theoretical and methodological approaches used by these studies highlighting its scientific limitations. The research discussed the most important concepts used by these studies such as Interactivity, Citizen Journalism, Public Sphere, and Social Capital and showed the problems of using them because each concept comes out of a specific view to these websites. The importation of these concepts from a cultural and social context to an Ara
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the effect of training with weight added to different parts of the body in improving the biomechanical variables of the last step and upgrading the high jump for young people, the research was applied to one of the elite high jumpers for young people, and video imaging and kinetic analysis were conducted to extract the variables under study, and then the jumper underwent For the proposed exercises by 3 training units per week for a period of (8) weeks, in which emphasis was placed on improving the rotational forces (moments) of these parts, and then the post-tests were conducted, and the researcher concluded that the exercises applied and the added weights for all parts of the body (leg, thigh, trunk, and arms) le
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