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A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes

Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 19 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison Some of Methods for Estimating Survival Function for Truncated Exponential Distribution

Exponential distribution is one of most common distributions in studies and scientific researches with wide application in the fields of reliability, engineering and in analyzing survival function therefore the researcher has carried on extended studies in the characteristics of this distribution.

In this research, estimation of survival function for truncated exponential distribution in the maximum likelihood  methods and Bayes first and second method, least square method and Jackknife dependent in the first place on the maximum likelihood method, then on Bayes first method then comparing then using simulation, thus to accomplish this task, different size samples have been adopted by the searcher us

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 26 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Comparison of Trichomoniasis Diagnosis by Microscopic Methods and Indirect ELISA Technique in a Sample of Iraqi Women

Trichomonas vaginalis is an eukaryotic parasite that causes the most common non-viral sexually transmitted infection, trichomoniasis. This disease is responsible for many serious health problems such as preterm birth. More than half of the infected women do not develop symptoms, which makes it difficult to diagnose the
disease. In this study, a specific indirect ELISA method was developed to detect anti-Trichomonas vaginalis IgM and IgG immunoglobulins in the sera of infected females. The aim of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of a simple ELISA procedure in comparison to the classical urine examination and vaginal wet mount preparation for the diagnosis of T. vaginalis. The sensitivity of the indirect ELISA was compared

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 19 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Dental caries among a group of boys with β-thalassemia major (10-12 years old) in relation to salivary Mutans streptococci

Background: Beta thalassemia major is an inherited disorder that may affect general and oral health.The purpose of this study was toassess the severity of dental caries in relation to oral cleanliness, mutans streptococciamong a group of boys with beta thalassemia majorin comparison with a control group. Materials and Methods: The study involved 30 boys with BTM aged 10-12 years compared to 30 healthy boys with the same age group. d1-4mfs and D1-4 MFS indices were applied (Muhlemann, 1976), the viable counts of mutans streptococci in stimulated saliva were also determined. Results: The entire thalassemic group was caries-active. For both dentitions, a higher dmfs/DMFS values were recorded for study compared to control group, difference was

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 05 2023
Journal Name
Pakistan Heart Journal
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Factors Influencing the Establishment of Investment Portfolios ((Analytical Research in a number of Private Banks in Baghdad))

       The investment portfolio of financial instruments & banking relatively new in the banking sector & the world of investment &capital markets in spite of its importance & its advantages in terms of the nature of the diversity of investment instruments as well as reduce the risk of investment & its contribution to the revitalization of the banks & the financial market , economic,  &characterized by developments accelerated under information & communications technology , as is the portfolio tool vehicle of investment tools that provide for people who want to invest & they can not manag

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Comparison between Mammography and Breast Ultrasound in the Detection of Breast Cancer in Dense Breast Tissue among a Sample of Iraqi Women
Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer reported in women worldwide . In Iraq, it is the  most common registered malignancy. Mammography plays a major role in  the early detection of breast cancers. Dense breast parenchyma has been reported to be the most important inherent factor that limits  depiction of breast cancer on mammogram, and often needs supplementary breast ultrasound for complete assessment. 
Objectives: To evaluate and compare the diagnostic performance of mammography and ultrasound in the
detection of breast cancer in dense breast tissue.
Patients
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2018
Journal Name
2018 Computing In Cardiology Conference (cinc)
Theoretical and Experimental Reflection Coefficients in Flexible Tubes as a Function of the Mach Number

The standard formulation of Wave Intensity Analysis (WIA) assumes that the flow velocity (U) in the conduit is <;<; the velocity of propagation of waves (c) in the system, and Mach number, M=U/c, is negligible. However, in the large conduit arteries, U is relatively high due to ventricular contraction and c is relatively low due to the large compliance; thus M is > 0, and may not be ignored. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify experimentally the relationship between M and the reflection coefficient in vitro. Combinations of flexible tubes, of 2 m in length with isotropic and uniform circular cross sectional area along their longitudinal axes, were used to present mother and daughter tubes to produce a range of reflection coeffic

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Some Parametric and Non –parametric Methods To Estimate Median Effective Dose ( ED5

            In this paper the research represents an attempt of expansion in using the parametric and non-parametric estimators to estimate the median effective dose ( ED50 ) in the quintal bioassay and comparing between  these methods . We have Chosen three estimators for Comparison. The first estimator is
( Spearman-Karber )  and the second estimator is ( Moving Average ) and The Third estimator  is ( Extreme Effective Dose ) .
We used a minimize Chi-square as a parametric method. We made a Comparison for these estimators by calculating the mean square error of (ED50) for each one of them and comparing it with the optimal the mean square

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Publication Date
Mon May 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Sedimentary Structure and Determine the Diriction of the Old Current to the By Hassan Formation Northeast Iraq

 This research deal the primary and secondary sedimentary structures in the By Hassan Formation in the three locations in the northeast of Iraq.          Can be recognize many geological structures such as cross bedding, planer bedding, graded bedding, channel structure and mud ball house deposit in the flood plain. The ether side this research study the direction of old current and sedimentary structure that made by the one direction current

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