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تصميم نموذج دعم قرار الاستبدال باستعمال المحاكاة

        تظهر الحاجة إلى الاستثمارات الرأسمالية من عدة مصادر كالحاجة إلى توسيع المنشآت الإنتاجية ، أو استجابة لحاجات المجتمع كشراء مكائن ومعدات لتخفيض تلوث الماء والهواء. أما أهم مصادر الحاجة لرؤوس الأموال فإنها تأتي من الموجودات الإنتاجية (باستثناء الأرض) ، حيث تستهلك هذه الموجودات (المكائن والآلات والعُدد) بشكل مستمر جراء الاستخدام ، فالمكائن، مثلا ، تسير دائما في طريقها نحو أكوام الخردة والبعض الآخر منها يصل إلى نهاية عمره الإنتاجي في نهاية كل سنة ، وأحيانا تصل الموجودات الإنتاجية إلى نهاية الطريق بسبب التقادم على الرغم من كونها صالحة للعمل ومن الأمثلة على ذلك الحواسيب الشخصية التي تتقادم بسرعة.

        إن أولى الأسبقيات التي تتطلب الحجم الأكبر من الاستثمارات الرأسمالية هي الحاجة لاستمرار عمل منشات الإنتاج (في قطاعي الصناعة والخدمات) بشكل كفوء ، فالموجودات الإنتاجية يمكن صيانتها أو استبدالها وبقدر تعلق الحاجة إلى رؤوس الأموال فان استبدال الموجودات يتطلب الجزء الأكبر من رؤوس الأموال المتاحة للشركة ، ولا تستهلك الموجودات الإنتاجية بأكملها مرة واحدة لان هذه الحالة لو تحققت فيكون من السهل معرفة تاريخ استبدالها ولكن بالمقابل تتضمن العديد من قرارات إدارة العمليات استثمار رؤوس أموال كبيرة ومن الأمثلة على ذلك توسيع الطاقة وإعادة الترتيب الداخلي والتكامل العمودي والأتمتة وتنصيب نظام خزين محوسب واستبدال تقنيات الإنتاج...... وغيرها.  ويستلزم الاستثمار في عمليات الاستبدال تعاون وظيفي متعدد Cross-Functional Coordination وبالأخص مع وظيفتي المالية والمحاسبة، إذ إن مثل هذه الاستثمارات المالية ينبغي أن تنسجم مع الخطط والقدرات المالية للشركة. فضلا عن ذلك ينبغي إخضاع الاستثمار في استبدال الموجودات الإنتاجية إلى واحد أو أكثر من أدوات التحليل لتثمين أو لتقييم اهميتها نسبة إلى البدائل المتاحة أمام الشركة.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Between Shrinkage &Maximum likelihood Method For Estimation Parameters &Reliability Function With 3- Parameter Weibull Distribution By Using Simulation

The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .

In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.

Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Crisis management according to the strategic leadership - the interactive role of decision support systems. (An exploratory study at the Ministry of Industry and Minerals / the State Company for Steel Industries)

The researcher aims to Diagnose the reality of research variables, strategic leadership and decision support systems, and their impact on crisis management in the General Company for Steel Industries because of their important role in preventing crises and reducing their occurrence for the research company in particular and other companies in general affiliated with the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, as well as clarifying theoretical concepts of research variables As it included the answer to questions related to the research problem, including (Is there an impact of the strategic leadership in managing crises if decision support systems are used), and the researcher adopted the descriptive and analytical approach in its comp

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 07 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400: DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400

A microbial study conducted for a number of flour samples (30 samples) Uses in the bakery ovens in various areas of the city of Baghdad, by used the conventional methods used in laboratories in microbial tests and compared with the modern techniqueby usedof BacTrac Device 3400 equipped from SY-LAB Impedance analysersAustrian company.The results of two ways showed (The conventional way and BacTrac Device test)that the total counts of aerobic bacteria, coliform bacteria, StaphylococcusSpp. bacteria, Bacillus cereus bacteria and yeasts and molds,Most of them were within the permissible borders in the Iraqi standard for grain and its products With free samples from SalmonellaSpp. bacteria, and that the screening by BacTrac device are shorten

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
The Magazine Economics & Admistration
دراسة أنتاج وتسويق التمور في العراق باستعمال طريقة المربعات الصغرى واسلوب البرمجة الخطية

تناولنا في بحثنا أحد اساليب البرمجة الخطية وهي الطريقة المبسطة لتقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي عن طريق اختيار دالة الهدف التي تعمل على تقليل الحد الادنى لمجموع الاخطاء الناتجة من تقدير المعلمات بطريقة المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية ( OLS) حيث سيتم في الطريقة المبسطة ( simplex) فرض قيود على نفس الاخطاء نفسها بهدف تصغيرها الى اقل ما يمكن للحصول على تقديرات افضل لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي . على اساس ان طريقة المرب

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Differentiation of Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells into Neuron-Like Cells induced by using β-mercaptoethanol

Background: Adipose derived-mesenchymal stem cells have been used as an alternative to bone marrow cells in this study. Objective: We investigated the in vitro isolation, identification, and differentiation of stem cells into neuron cells, in order to produce neuron cells via cell culture, which would be useful in nerve injury treatment. Method: Mouse adipose mesenchymal stem cells were dissected from the abdominal subcutaneous region. Neural differentiation was induced using β-mercaptoethanol. This study included two different neural stage markers, i.e. nestin and neurofilament light-chain, to detect immature and mature neurons, respectively. Results: The immunocytochemistry results showed that the use of β-mercaptoethanol resulted in

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Classification & Evaluation of Evidence of deprivation in Iraq (2009) by using Cluster analysis

       The study aimed to reach the best rating for the views and variables in the totals characterized by qualities and characteristics common within each group and distinguish them from aggregates other for the purpose of distinguishing between Iraqi provinces which suffer from deprivation, for the purpose of identifying the status of those provinces in the early allowing interested parties and regulators to intervene to take appropriate corrective action in a timely manner. Style has been used cluster analysis Cluster analysis to reach the best rating to those totals from the provinces that suffer from problems, where the provinces were classified, based on the variables (Edu

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Predicting changes on budget expenditures using Markov chains with practical application

The researchers have a special interest in studying  Markov  chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable  samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one  of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying  Maximum likelihood estimation  and Ordinary least squares  methods resulting

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the Performance of IT Governance According to COBIT5 Framework by Using the Balanced Scorecard

The research aims to clarify the COBIT5 framework for IT governance and to develop of a criterion based on Balanced Scorecard that contributes in measuring the performance of IT governance. To achieve these goals, the researchers adopted the deductive approach in the design of balanced scorecard to measure the IT governance at the Bank of Baghdad that was chosen because it relied heavily on IT.

The research has reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that the performance of IT department in the Bank of Baghdad falls within the good level that requires constant monitoring, the most committed items of Balanced Scorecard by the Bank were customer, internal operation, growth and finally the financial item; IT

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed method to estimate missing values in Non - Parametric multiple regression model

In this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2011
Journal Name
المؤتمر الدولي الثالث للاحصائيين العرب
Use a form ARX(p,q) to estimate time series for the Iraqi Economy

Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

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